September 04, 2023
The NFL is back this week. It feels like Philadelphia was just reeling from a Super Bowl defeat, but the Eagles will begin their revenge tour this weekend. Ahead of Week 1, I'm going to get in on the fun and lay out some season-long over/under prop bets for the Birds. Noticeably, there are no Jalen Hurts over/unders here, as I did an entirely Hurts-focused prop bet story earlier in the offseason. You can read that here.
Let's get after it...
All totals are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook
This number feels spot on. Haason Reddick had a career-best 16 sacks in 2022 and 19.5 total if you include the postseason. Expecting him to match or even exceed that number is a bit foolish. That speaks more so to how tough it is to have gaudy sack numbers than anything about Reddick's talent.
In 2020, Reddick had 12.5 sacks with the Cardinals. In 2021, he had 11 sacks with the Panthers. That 12.5 number sounds right to me. Reddick will be the Eagles' best pass-rusher, but perhaps the Eagles want to keep him as fresh as possible for the playoffs as he enters his age-29 season and first-round rookie Nolan Smith finds a role as a super-sub pass-rusher.
I'll say over for this one with 12.5.
OVER.
This bet, if Smith is as healthy as he was in the first two years of his career, is free money.
He's only getting better entering his age-25 season. He had 64 catches in 2021 despite playing in an offense that barely threw the football. As the No. 2 wideout behind A.J. Brown in 2022, he hauled in 95 passes, the most ever from an Eagles wide receiver in a single season. I expect the Eagles to lean less on the run than in previous years to preserve the wear and tear on Hurts until high-leverage situations and the postseason come. They're gonna throw the ball more and you think Smith will have 15 fewer catches? No way.
OVER.
Dallas Goedert is a playmaker, no doubt.
Goedert averaged 2.49 yards per route in 2022, which puts him ahead of Ja'Marr Chase (2.44), Mark Andrews (2.19) and other big-name pass-catchers. Goedert truly has the ability to be the best non-Travis Kelce tight end in the league, but his raw counting stats are hurt by his past injuries and the players who surround him on the Eagles' offense.
Goedert played in just 12 games in 2022. He had three touchdown catches on the year. If he was guaranteed to play 16 or 17 games and be the top pass-catching option on a given team, he would be pushing double-digit numbers. That's just not the case in Philly, particularly when he's the third banana behind Brown and Smith.
Tight ends usually feast in the red zone where offenses could use their size-athleticism combo to create mismatches, but no one in the NFL is better at pounding the ball into the end zone in goal-to-go situations than Hurts. To borrow from NBA superteam nomenclature, there's only one ball. Brown, Smith and Goedert can't all have All-Pro numbers across the board.
UNDER.
Over the last four seasons, Bradberry has had at least three in every single one. That's a nice trend to bank on!
Bradberry was targeted 86 times in coverage in 2022, per pro-football-reference, the lowest total for him since the site began tracking the stat in 2018. I expect that number to jump a bit in 2023, which, in turn, would create more chances for potential turnovers.
Why is that? Bradberry won't just be an outside corner this fall.
A wrinkle in new defensive coordinator Sean Desai's scheme on display this summer was Bradberry kicked inside to slot corner to match up with tight ends. It makes all the sense in the world. Bradberry is the Eagles' most physical corner. The NFL continues to evolve where the league is seeing more and more tight ends becoming bigger focal points of their respective offenses. If Kansas City is going to treat Travis Kelce as its No. 1 target and the Giants are going to feed Darren Waller, why would you leave that assignment up to a lesser safety or linebacker?
Give me that over.
OVER.
I'd be wary of taking the over on anything related to the Eagles' running back room, especially Rashaad Penny. He received the fewest first-team snaps and the fewest touches of any of the four RBs on the team's current roster during training camp. Kenny Gainwell isn't as talented as Penny, but he had the vast majority of those snaps and more touches than the rest of the crew. Gainwell is entering his third season in this offense. Perhaps the Eagles' coaching staff is higher on Gainwell than the average Philadelphian, but Gainwell out-snapped departed RB Miles Sanders in the Super Bowl 38 to 26. The team's usage of Gainwell isn't as new of a story as you might believe.
There's also the other back the Eagles brought in this offseason: D'Andre Swift. I'd imagine Swift leads all of the Eagles backs in receptions and will still get a share of the carries, too. That's before even getting into Hurts' capabilities as a designed rusher. The Eagles look poised to throw the ball more in 2023 than they did in 2022, so the touches necessary to hit this benchmark appear to be dwindling.
Penny has a lengthy injury history that's well known. He's played 18 games over the last three years. Gainwell played in 20 last season when including the playoffs. Perhaps Penny continues to be an efficient beast in a smaller role, coming close to his career 5.7 yards per carry mark, but if that only happens in eight or nine games in a shared backfield, he's not sniffing 600 rushing yards.
UNDER.
Dak Prescott led the NFL in interceptions in 2022 with 15 despite playing in just 12 out of 17 possible games. No one's throwing picks as "efficiently" as Prescott. His interception rate of 3.8 percent in 2022 led the league was the highest figure in the NFL since Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield topped it in 2019. Congrats, Dallas fans. You can now sweat out every throw while the nagging suspicion of Trey Lance's arrival dances in the back of your brain, wondering if this is it for Prescott.
Surely this quote will make the rounds as soon as Prescott throws his first pick of the season:
Dak Prescott: "I won't have 10 interceptions this year"https://t.co/Hx2Fj6d8Z1 pic.twitter.com/JS9US6H2YC
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) July 17, 2023
Even with all of that, I'm going to hit the under because Prescott will probably miss a chunk of time yet again with injuries. I'll say he throws 12 in 11 games.
UNDER.
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