July 25, 2025
Kyle Ross/Imagn Images
Bryce Harper rounds the bases after hitting his 350th career home run.
Just 17 days ago, Bryce Harper was having — by his standards— a mediocre year.
Harper's season-long OPS went down to .782 after going 0-for-4 in a 4-3 road loss to the San Francisco Giants on July 8. He had one hit in his last 16 at-bats, failing to uplift an offense desperate for power and consistency from anyone other than Kyle Schwarber.
Then came July 9. Harper rose his OPS to .819 in one day by crushing a career-high four extra-base hits. He was going to deep left-center, one of the hallmarks of a brilliant Harper swing.
During Harper's time in Philadelphia, it has been easy to spot when he is about to stage a torrid run of offensive production. Over the last 10 games — starting with that monstrous performance in San Francisco — he has authored one of those runs. Now, Harper has an OPS of .880 for the season. How has he gotten here? Let's dive into the numbers surrounding Harper's red-hot stretch and season:
After that career-high of four extra-base hits on July 9, Harper has averaged more than one extra-base hit per game in nine contests since and has accumulated 40 total bases during the stretch.
When he was not going particularly well, it was not like Harper could not get on base; pitchers will always fear Harper and he will always gladly take his walks. But in Harper's last 10-game stretch before this one, he only had one extra-base hit.
The power was not there for Harper much this season prior to the streak he is on right now, which limited his upside and came at the wrong time. This year's Phillies offense is particularly light on power, as Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh are all having down seasons in terms of hitting home runs. In this era of the organization, playoff success has been defined by starting pitching and home run swings. They certainly still have the former, but does the latter still exist to a large enough degree?
Nobody should be surprised to hear that Harper's individual numbers have been better in wins than losses — that should always be the case barring a statistical improbability occurring. But the extent to which they have been better this season is interesting to note:
| Harper in wins | Harper in losses |
| .319 AVG | .202 AVG |
| .421 OBP | .316 OBP |
| .601 SLG | .360 SLG |
Many great teams have a player that ignites the entire thing. It does not have to be the best player — for example, Chase Utley was the best player on the Phillies during his prime, but it often felt as if the team went as Jimmy Rollins went. In Harper's case, perhaps the best player is also the one whose production serves as a barometer for the team's ceiling.
Schwarber has undoubtedly been the Phillies' best hitter this year, and he has a firmly better statistical profile than Harper even after this torrid stretch (Schwarber's last few weeks have not been too shabby). Of course, the Phillies need both of their left-handed sluggers to be at their best to win at the highest levels, but Harper's recent surge coinciding with some improved team play speaks volumes about how important it will be for him to sustain this for as long as he can.
Many have observed that Harper, who has generally been one to break out a violent swing when needed, had not seemed to be swinging with such unbridled aggression these days. Over the last few weeks, that trademark violent swing has made a return. Harper just looks like he is doing better physically, from the way he swings to the way he is running out ground balls again.
According to FanGraphs, Harper's hard-hit rate — the percentage of balls he puts into play at 95 miles per hour or more — is now noticeably higher this season than it has been in any full season Harper has played in Philadelphia. Keep in mind that the 2020 campaign was only 60 games long:
| Season | Harper hard-hit rate |
| 2019 | 45.6% |
| 2020 | 50.7% |
| 2021 | 49.2% |
| 2022 | 47.9% |
| 2023 | 46.8% |
| 2024 | 47.2% |
| 2025 | 50.5% |
This stat is not much of a results-based figure, but a predictive one. If you hit the ball hard a lot, you are much more likely to get a lot of big hits over an extended period of time. That has never been a problem for Harper, whose exit velocity numbers have always been stellar. But it is a surprise to see him surpass any other number he has posted in this department during his Phillies tenure.
Harper and many of his teammates — particularly Turner and Castellanos — are seeing fewer fastballs than ever, in favor of the spin that opposing staffs hope to use to bait them into chasing. But they almost have to throw those pitches to Harper because he is so dangerous against velocity. Case in point: he is just about twice as good as the average major-league hitter in 2025 against heaters.
When Harper is entirely locked in, he covers the entire plate and uses his genius pitch recognition skills. He spits on offspeed pitches that just miss the zone, he pounces on hanging breaking balls and remains excellent against fastballs. When Harper is a bit erratic, the plan to pitch to him is fairly simple, even if imperfect. When he is locked in, seeing pitches out of the hand and forcing pitchers to come into the zone, he is basically impossible to pitch to.
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
