March 04, 2026
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
Can Cristopher Sánchez and the Phillies' starting rotation be MLB's best in 2026?
If the Phillies are going to win the World Series – and the two-time defending National League champs have the personnel to vie for it – it'll be because of their starting rotation.
By many metrics, it was the National League's best last year. It could also have been the best in the majors.
Here's where the starting rotation ranked in some significant categories:
| Category | Stat | MLB/NL Rank |
| Innings Pitched | 929.2 | 1 |
| ERA | 3.41 | 6/4 |
| Wins | 63 | 3/2 |
| Ks | 966 | 1 |
| WHIP | 1.18 | t-4/3 |
Only one stud from last year's rotation – left-hander Ranger Suárez – is gone. He left in free agency, signing a mega deal with the Red Sox, and won't be easily replaced.
But even Suárez had become the No. 4 on a staff that last year included two Cy Young candidates – Cris Sánchez and Zack Wheeler – and an emerging star in Jesus Luzardo.
Sánchez, a top-five MLB finisher in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, placed second in Cy Young voting last season. Wheeler, who made his third All Star team, was firmly in contention for the award until his season ended in August because of blood clot near his shoulder that resulted in the ace undergoing Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery. The start of his 2026 season will be delayed.
Jesús Luzardo shined in his first season in red pinstripes after coming over in a trade with the Marlins. The power lefty, just 28, finished with the NL's second-most strikeouts (216) and tied for the MLB lead with 22 quality starts.
No other NL team had more than one pitcher earn a Cy Young vote. The Phillies had three.
Right-hander Aaron Nola, typically an innings-eater, had his season marred by ankle and rib stress fracture injuries. But if he's anything close his career averages this season, Nola will be one of MLB's best No. 4s.
The fifth spot is between veteran Taijuan Walker or top arm prospect Andrew Painter. The organization hopes that Painter, once a top-five overall MLB prospect, is ready to emerge after Tommy John surgery shelved him for the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
A flame-throwing right-hander, Painter spent most of last season in Triple-A, trying to regain command and control of his devastating fastball that has reached triple digits. He struggled with his arm slot and fatigue at Lehigh Valley, pitching 118 innings after two seasons away from the mound.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a starting five in the sport with more overall talent than the Phillies, and the Phils will need every ounce of it to compensate for a batting order that has holes, and a remade bullpen that's expected to be an upgrade over last year's bunch but still has some questions.
From 1-4, the Phillies make an argument for having the best arm in the division, although the Mets and Braves have some high-end starters who can also make strong claims.
Here's a look at how the top four of the Phillies rotation compares to the rest of the division's top four through last year's major pitching category statistics, this year's projections, and career WAR. Projections are via baseballreference.com.
| Club | No. 1 | 2025 | 2026 proj. | 2025 WAR |
| Phillies | Cris Sánchez | 13-5, 2.50 ERA, 212 Ks | 11-7, 3.12 ERA, 172 Ks | 8.0 |
| Braves | Chris Sale | 7-5, 2.58 ERA, 165 Ks | 10-5, 3.15 ERA, 163 Ks | 4.0 |
| Marlins | Sandy Alcantra | 11-12, 5.36 ERA, 142 Ks | 8-9, 4.84 ERA, 125 Ks | 0.1 |
| Mets | Freddy Peralta | 17-6, 2.70 ERA, 204 Ks | 13-8, 3.42 ERA, 185 Ks | 5.5 |
| Nationals | Cade Cavalli | 3-1, 4.25 ERA, 40 Ks | 5-4, 4.18 ERA, 76 Ks | 0.2 |
Peralta, Sánchez and Alcántara could've made a killer trio for the Dominican Republic in the WBC, but for reasons that still aren't clear, Peralta isn't participating. He came to the Mets in a trade with the Brewers, and he's every bit the rival of Sánchez that the Mets and Phillies are. Both are 29-year-olds coming off outstanding seasons – Peralta finished fifth in Cy Young voting – and each should be the Opening Day starter for their respective teams.
The lefty Sale is still one of baseball's best. His 11.8 K/9 rate last year was even better than his 2024 Cy Young season. But at 39, he remains an injury risk who can't be relied on for 150-plus innings. He hasn't started more than 30 games since 2017 and made just 20 last season, the second time in the past three seasons he's only made 20 starts.
As most pitchers do, Alcántara struggled for the Marlins last season after missing 2024 from Tommy John surgery. But his ERA for August/September was under 4.00 as he regained form and his K/9 rate picked up in those months, too – perhaps foreshadowing a return to ace status in 2025. Question is: Will the Marlins trade him if they're out of contention? That's always the question with him and them.
Cade Cavalli was once an awesome prospect who broke into the big leagues the same year he was picked by the Nats in the first round of 2022. He then missed all of 2023 and almost all of 2024 because of – you guessed it – Tommy John. There's no certainty he's the Opening Day starter. The Nats' pitching staff is a mess, and will be painful to watch.
| Club | No. 2 | 2025 | 2026 proj. | 2025 WAR |
| Phillies | Zack Wheeler | 10-5, 2.71 ERA, 195 Ks | 10-6, 3.14 ERA, 173 Ks | 5.0 |
| Braves | Spencer Strider | 8-9, 4.24 ERA, 139 Ks | 7-14, 4.45, 131 Ks | 1.1 |
| Marlins | Eury Pérez | 7-6, 4.25 ERA, 105 Ks | 7-6, 3.92 ERA, 117 Ks | 1.2 |
| Mets | Nolan McLean | 5-1, 2.06 ERA, 57 Ks | 6-4, 3.32 ERA, 88 Ks | 1.8 |
| Nationals | Miles Mikolas | 8-11, 4.84 ERA, 100 Ks | 8-10, 4.94, 111 Ks | 0.4 |
This has to be one of the most promising groups of No. 2s in any MLB division – minus the Nats.
Until proven otherwise, Wheeler is still NL East's best. You can have some concerns about him coming off surgery at 35 – even if the Phils don't – but the delayed start to his season is the only reason he isn't the No. 1.
Strider has electric stuff – ask Bryce Harper's elbow – and could reclaim his status as Atlanta's ace. He made a ridiculously quick return last year from elbow surgery that cost him almost all of 2024. He pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in June and July before imploding in August (10.13 ERA) and rebounding in September/October (2.79). Expect the fireballing right-hander's lower-than-usual K/9 rate last season (9.4) to climb back near his career average (12.4).
Pérez, a very promising young starter who also missed 2024 from – yep – Tommy John, looked the part in limited action last season. In five September/October starts, he pitched to a 4.88 ERA with an astronomical 13.1 K/9 rate. He's got a live arm but has only appeared in 39 games..
McLean delivered on his promise as a top Mets prospect in a small dose last August and September. He has really good movement and throws a variety of pitches. Expectations for him in 2025 are through the roof, and probably somewhat unfair. But he's 23 and dominated the minors.
Then there's Mikolas. Is he the No. 2? Who knows. Your grandpa throws with as much velocity as the 37-year-old journeyman right-hander, who flaunts a career 6.4 K/9 rate. But Mikolas somehow managed two impressive seasons with the Cardinals in 2022 and 2023 – 67 starts, 403.2 innings, an All-Star berth – before falling off in 2024 and only moderately improving in 2025. The Nats need someone to eat some innings, and Mikolas does that.
| Club | No. 3 | 2025 | 2026 proj. | 2025 WAR |
| Phillies | Jesús Luzardo | 15-7, 3.92 ERA, 216 Ks | 11-8, 4.04 ERA, 171 Ks | 3.9 |
| Braves | Reynaldo López | *8-5, 1.99 ERA, 148 Ks | 3-3, 3.21 ERA, 57 Ks | 5.1 |
| Marlins | Chris Paddack | 2-3, 6.32 ERA, 29 Ks | 6-9, 4.97 ERA, 117 Ks | -0.6 |
| Mets | David Peterson | 9-6, 4.22 ERA, 150 Ks | 9-6, 4.01 ERA, 141 Ks | 1.4 |
| Nationals | Jake Irvin | 9-13, 5.70 ERA, 124 Ks | 8-11, 4.90 ERA, 134 Ks | -0.14 |
Imagine having a No. 3 starter who had more Cy Young votes than your own ace? The Phillies don't have to. If not for two of the most heinous starts you'll ever see, Luzardo could've finished with even better numbers than Sanchez or Wheeler. Compared to the rest of the division's No. 3s, the Phillies are in great shape.
López should be Atlanta's No. 4 starter but the Braves will be without Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep (whatever that is) for probably a few months, and maybe longer, thanks to elbow surgery. López was a 2024 All Star but missed all of last season from right shoulder surgery (not Tommy John!). Before that, he was a journeyman reliever for a few seasons. Given his track record as a White Sox starter earlier in his career, he's probably good for an ERA in the mid-4.00s and K/9 strikeout rate between 7 or 8 – good No. 4 or 5 starters numbers.
Paddack is a 29-year-old on the cusp of becoming a journeyman right-hander. The Marlins are his third team in the past two seasons. His career 4.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 rate make him better suited to be the No. 4 starter but we're talking about the Marlins here. He'll probably be leapfrogged by a younger prospect at some point mid-season.
Peterson is a very solid No. 3 for the Mets. Two years ago, he pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in 21 starts and was the staff's ace. At 29, he's not a spring chicken, so there could be some decline as he's seen his innings pitched increase every year since his 2020 debut. Peterson isn't as overpowering as his 6-foot-6 frame suggests he should be, but compared to Paddack and the Nats' No. 3, he might as well be Roger friggin' Clemens.
The lefty Irvin led the NL in losses for the Nats in 2023 with 14. He tried to repeat the feat last year but fell short, merely losing 13. He's actually not that bad – his three-year career ERA is under 5.00 – but in no world should he and Luzardo be mentioned in the same breath as No. 3s.
| Club | No. 4 | 2025 | 2026 proj | 2025 WAR |
| Phillies | Aaron Nola | 5-10, 6.01 ERA, 97 Ks | 8-8, 4.54, 125 Ks | -0.3 |
| Braves | Grant Holmes | 4-9, 3.99 ERA, 123 Ks | 5-7, 4.02 ERA, 113 Ks | 1.4 |
| Marlins | Max Meyer | 3-5, 4.73 ERA, 68 Ks | 5-7, 4.59 ERA, 94 Ks | 0.0 |
| Mets | Clay Holmes | 12-8, 3.53 ERA, 129 Ks | 8-7, 3.67 ERA, 110 Ks | 1.9 |
| Nationals | Josiah Gray | 8-13, 3.91 ERA, 143 Ks | 3-4, 4.43 ERA, 57 Ks | 3.1 |
Nola went through the ringer of injuries last year. If you judge him by his track record but tack on some aging, expect an ERA somewhere around 4.50, a WHIP under 1.25 and with a strikeout rate in the 8K/9 neighborhood — pretty good for a No. 4. Nola, who like many Italians hails from .... New Orleans, is pitching for Italy in the WBC. That could cause some rooting conflict for large pockets of the Delaware Valley, especially South Philly.
Once a first-round pick of the Dodgers, Holmes toiled for years in the minors before finally getting his shot with Atlanta in 2024. The right-hander made 21 starts last year, pitching to a 3.99 ERA with a 9.6 K/9 rate. Something clicked for the 29-year-old late in his career. Side note: With his long mullet and handlebar mustache, Holmes is a dead ringer for the guy from Office Space who played Peter's neighbor. Who's got a case of the Mondays?
The Marlins have been excited about Max Meyer, their flame-throwing right-hander picked third overall in 2020. Meyer made his MLB debut in 2022 but missed all of 2023 from – ding! ding! ding! – Tommy John. Meyer has made just 12 starts across the past two seasons with an ERA over 5.00. Are they still excited?
The Mets moved Holmes, a two-time All Star reliever, into the rotation last year for the first time in his eight-year career. It actually went well. He won 12 games and pitched to a 3.53 ERA. The 32-year-old doesn't strike anyone out and registered a WHIP over 1.30, so there's some reason to question if he can repeat last year's success. But you could do way worse for a No. 4.
For our final Tommy John reference of this story, Gray would probably be the Nats' No. 1 this season if not for missing nearly all of the past two seasons from the dreaded surgery. He was an All Star in 2023 – more so because each team gets at least one – and was viewed as an emerging right-hander. But it's been a while since he toed the rubber, so plan accordingly.
The Phils went crazy for pitching in last year's draft, taking pitchers with their first eight picks and 14 among their 20. Three of them – first-round righty Gage Wood, second-round lefty Cade Obermueller, and third-round righty Cody Bowker – were widely viewed as prospects who could quickly be up in the majors.
Wood and Obermueller are already top-10 Phillies prospects, per MLB.com. They have to get past Single-A before a majors watch can even start. Tenth-ranked prospect Moisés Chace, a righty, performed well in six starts at Double-A Reading last season but was shut down to get Tommy John surgery and won't return until midseason at the earliest.
Taijuan Walker can move to the pen when Wheeler is ready to return.
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