December 18, 2025
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
Saquon Barkley will have a chance to keep his positive momentum going against a bad Commanders defense.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 16 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. Disclaimer: Don't actually listen to anything I say here, as I have had an absolutely horrendous season picking games.
Rams at Seahawks (-1.5): The Rams will very likely be without Davante Adams (hamstring) in this game, and the Rams' vibes kinda suck at the moment, with Puka Nacua drawing some well-deserved scrutiny for actions and comments made on some idiot's podcast. I like the Seahawks' defense's chances of slowing down the Rams' rushing attack and then getting after Matthew Stafford.
Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders: If a moron like me could diagnose exactly how and why the Commanders' season was going to go sideways in 2025, it probably should have been pretty obvious to the folks closer to the team. Understandably though, after the Commanders made it to the NFC Championship Game last season, DMV residents had high expectations for this season. And then... (fart noise).
They have actually been far worse than anyone could have reasonably predicted, as Jayden Daniels regressed substantially, and was also sidelined by injuries at four different junctures of the season. His season is over, and Marcus Mariota (2-5, with wins over the Raiders and Giants) will finish out the season as the starter, assuming he can stay upright.
Offensively, the Commanders have a decent rushing attack, with a committee approach at running back, and with Mariota making an occasional play with his legs. But their passing attack has not been anywhere near as effective as it was in 2024 when Daniels was special. It doesn't help that Zach Ertz is done for the season with a torn ACL, and starting LT Laremy Tunsil (oblique) may or may not play.
Defensively, the Commanders have predictably been a mess. They suck against the run, they don't have much of a pass rush, their linebackers can't cover, and they're deep into their corner reserves because of injuries.
If the Commanders haven't already checked out on the season, they're probably going to treat this game like it's their Super Bowl, given how the Eagles destroyed them in the NFC Championship Game last season and let them know about it throughout the game. But quite clearly, they just do not match up with the Eagles' talent on either side of the ball. Divisional games can be tricky, and there is the revenge factor, but give me the Birds comfortably.
Packers (-1.5) at Bears: The Packers beat the Bears in Green Bay a couple weeks ago, but they now have a loooooong list of injuries, including Micah Parsons, whose season is over with a torn ACL. They are limping into the playoffs, literally, and this Bears team can play some smashmouth football.
Bills (-10) at Browns: The Bills still have a shot at winning their sixth consecutive AFC East title if they can win out and the Patri*ts lose two more games. So, they'll be going all out to beat the Browns in this matchup. All Browns fans have to look forward to the rest of this season is Myles Garrett's quest to break the single-season sack record.
Jets at Saints (-4.5): The Saints have played hard down the stretch, and have won two straight over the Buccaneers and Panthers. They actually have a reasonable chance at ending the season on a five-game winning streak if they can beat the Jets at home, and then the Titans and Falcons on the road Weeks 17 and 18. And my bet is that they'll try to do just that, hoping to build a winning culture. Meanwhile, the Jets traded off their good players on defense, and have allowed 82 points the last two games.
Vikings (-2.5) at Giants: The Vikings beat the Cowboys on the road and their offense looked functional for a change under J.J. McCarthy. The Giants weren't really even all that competitive against the Commanders at home.
Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers: The Bucs and Panthers fighting it out for the NFC South:
The Bucs' defense has been atrocious lately. Give me the Panthers.
Chiefs (-3) at Titans: I can actually see the Titans winning this game and wrecking their draft positioning. In case you've been living in a cave, Patrick Mahomes is done for the season with a torn ACL, and Gardner Minshew will start behind an injury-ravaged offensive line. You know what? My picks against the spread are already in the toilet. Let's get nuts. Give me the Titans, outright.
Chargers at Cowboys (-2.5): The Chargers have been underdogs each of the last two weeks against the Eagles and Chiefs, largely because their offensive line has been devastated by injuries, and they can't protect a one-armed Justin Herbert. They won both of those games anyway. I like them to win as underdogs in Dallas, too, because the Cowboys don't have as good a pass rush as the Eagles and Chiefs, and thus won't be able to exploit that glaring weakness as effectively.
Bengals (-4.5) at Dolphins: The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa, possibly ending his tenure in Miami, and Joe Burrow seems to be unhappy playing in Cincinnati. So, I guess this game is mildly interesting because of quarterback drama? Otherwise, this game has no playoff implications, and also doesn't matter much in terms of draft positioning, as neither team will likely be picking in the top 5 of the draft.
Falcons (-3) at Cardinals: This is the Dead Man Walking Bowl, as Raheem Morris and Jonathan Gannon are probably getting canned after the season is over.
Jaguars at Broncos (-3): The Jags and Broncos are trying to lock down the AFC South and West, respectively. The Jags have kind of quietly been whooping on opponents lately. They have a point differential of +99 during their current five-game winning streak, albeit mostly against bad teams. The Broncos have been eking out narrow wins all season, as 10 of their 12 wins have been by one score. I'll take the Broncos to win, but I'll hedge by taking the Jaguars and the points.
Steelers at Lions (-7): The Lions need to win out for any reasonable chance to make it into the tourney, and they have a lot more talent than this Steelers team that could be without T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig.
Raiders at Texans (-14): That Raiders team that played in Philly last weekend was the worst I've seen in quite some time. If you've read my picks over the years, you know I don't like laying a lot of points, but I will make an exception here. That team is pure, unadulterated trash, and the Texans are going to wipe the floor with them.
Patri*ts at Ravens (-3): Interesting matchup! The Ravens are playing elimination games from here on out, and the Patri*ts have just one win over a team currently with a winning record.
49ers (-6) at Colts: The Colts were a fun story last week, when they signed retired 44-year-old Phillip Rivers out of desperation. There was probably a sense of urgency from the rest of the roster to go out and improbably win in Seattle, which they almost did. That urgency won't be there in Rivers' second start, with the Colts' season dead and buried.
The Texans are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, in my opinion, and they're playing a Raiders team in full-on tank mode.
Disclaimer: I got knocked out of my survivor pool Week 14. Or at least I thought I did when the Bucs lost. However, I caught a huge break, because all 14 people who were still alive in my survivor pool all picked teams that lost, such as the Bucs (like me), Browns, and Chiefs. So, all 14 survived! 🙌
• Picks against the spread: Eagles (-6.5), Bears (+1.5), Saints (-4.5), Vikings (-2.5), Titans (+3), Chargers (+2.5), Jaguars (+3), Texans (-14), 49ers (-6).
• Eagles picks: 9-5
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 484-426-23 (0.531)
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