November 22, 2023
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have been one of the most productive duos in the NFL the last four seasons.
The 9-1 Philadelphia Eagles are two games (both wins) through their difficult six-game gauntlet. Next up are the 6-5 Buffalo Bills. Here are our five matchups to watch.
Let's get the Bills' most notable skill player of interest out of the way right off the bat. That would be Diggs, whom the Bills traded for in 2020, and who has led the team in receiving by a wide margin every season:
| Year | Stefon Diggs receiving yards | Next closest Bill |
| 2020 | 1535 | 967 (Cole Beasley) |
| 2021 | 1225 | 693 (Cole Beasley) |
| 2022 | 1429 | 836 (Gabe Davis) |
| 2023 | 895 | 490 (Gabe Davis) |
In summary, he's good, and he happens to often line up in the slot (159 slot snaps, 261 outside snaps, per PFF), which is where the Eagles are most vulnerable.
Diggs can win at all three levels of the defense. He's an outstanding route runner, he wins on 50-50 balls despite a lack of ideal size, and he breaks tackles after the catch.
#BillsMafia WR Stefon Diggs Highlights - #Browns opponent Week 11 pic.twitter.com/GetbSP25v5
— Brad Ward (@WardonSports) November 16, 2022
The Eagles have probably had six games this season in which they have prepared for an offense that had one star receiver, and then not much of a supporting cast otherwise:
• Week 2, Vikings: In hindsight, we now know that Jordan Addison is really good, but at the time the perception was that it was Jefferson and then a huge drop to the next guy.
• Week 4, Commanders: Terry McLaurin.
• Week 6, Jets: Garrett Wilson.
• Week 8, Commanders: McLaurin again.
• Week 9, Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb.
• Week 11, Chiefs: Travis Kelce, who is a tight end of course, but has 7 straight seasons with 1000-plus receiving yards.
The Eagles also keyed in on Tyreek Hill once Jaylen Waddle was injured during their win over the Dolphins.
Mixed results. What Sean Desai cannot do is copy/paste the plan the Eagles had for Lamb Week 9. Put that game plan in the shed and never look at it again.
The Bills' offensive line:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Dion Dawkins | Connor McGovern | Mitch Morse | O'Cyrus Torrence | Spencer Brown |
Let's start with the interior.
• McGovern was a Cowboys backup who started 8 games in 2020 and 6 games in 2021. He was a full-time starter there in 2022, and signed as a free agent this past offseason with the Bills. Just a guy. This is a matchup the Eagles should be able to take advantage of, particularly against the run.
• Morse has been around for a while. He's in his ninth season, and his fifth with the Bills. He was drafted by Kansas City in 2015 and played there for four years. Solid starting center.
• Torrence is an interesting player. He's a wide-bodied RG at 6'5, 347. He's a tank in the run game, but with that kind of weight he's always going to be susceptible to quicker interior guys. Torrence played collegiately at Florida, so he has matched up with Jalen Carter in the past.
Great to see #Georgia DT Jalen Carter healthy and back on the field.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 31, 2022
RG O’Cyrus Torrence is 345 pounds and one of the best iOL in the country. And Carter goes right through him. Still a boss. pic.twitter.com/JoX8Ahlhcf
There were times on obvious passing downs against the Chiefs in which Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat rushed from the same side, with Reddick on the interior. I wonder if they'll try that against Torrence.
On the edge, the Bills have a good duo in Dawkins and Brown. Dawkins and Reddick played together at Temple, but Brown will see more of Reddick in this matchup. Brown is an elite athlete, so I like his chances of mirroring/matching Reddick more than most.
If I were the Bills, I'd be more worried about Sweat vs. Dawkins than Reddick vs. Brown.
Overall, this is a good offensive line. Over the last two games against the Chiefs and Cowboys, I've liked the Eagles' chances of winning on the edge than I did on their interior. This week against the Bills, the better matchups for the Eagles are inside.
On average, Josh Allen holds the ball for 2.87 seconds per dropback, per the NFL's NextGen stats. That's significantly longer than some of the other quarterbacks the Eagles have faced so far this season, like Tua Tagovailoa (2.37), Mac Jones (2.49), and Dak Prescott (2.65). However, Allen does a great job of eluding pressure and shaking off pass rushers with his size, strength, and speed. He has only been sacked 14 times this season, and the Bills as a team have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the NFL (14), behind only the Chiefs (13).
Despite the low number of sacks taken, Allen has four fumbles. That's been a theme over his career. He had 13 fumbles in 2022, and he has 56 fumbles in 88 career games. Those are Wentzian fumble stats. The Eagles are always preaching techniques to jar the ball loose from the opposing quarterback, but I imagine that'll be an area of added focus this week in practice.
#FeastinMeter: 4/10 turkey legs 🍗🍗🍗🍗
After a little bit of a slump, the Eagles got their rushing attack going against the Chiefs on Monday night. I imagine they'll look to carry over that momentum against the Bills, who are allowing 4.53 yards per carry, fourth-worst in the NFL. The Bills recently signed old friend Linval Joseph to help plug some of their run game deficiencies.
But ultimately, I expect the Eagles to attack through the air, which brings us to...
The Bills have a slew of injuries at cornerback:
• Tre'Davious White (IR): White is a two-time All-Pro and the Bills' best cornerback. He tore his Achilles in the Bills' Week 4 win over the Dolphins.
• Taron Johnson: Johnson is the Bills' talented CB2 opposite White. He was concussed Week 11 against the Jets, and showed a "fencing" posture after absorbing a big hit to his head. He is an especially important player to the Bills because he starts and moves inside in nickel.
• Dane Jackson: Jackson became a starter after White tore his Achilles. He was concussed Week 11 against the Jets.
• Kaiir Elam (IR): Elam was a Bills first-round pick in 2022 and has been disappointing so far. He's on IR.
Add in that All-Pro LB Matt Milano — a stud in coverage — is also out, and the Bills have a lot of faces in their back seven who were not expected to play big roles when the season began.
To be determined who among the Bills' corners will play on Sunday, but with White and Elam out, Buffalo does not field a defensive back currently on the 53-man roster who ran anything better than 4.50 at the Combine (or Pro Day, if there are no Combine numbers):
| Bills secondary | 40 time |
| CB Taron Johnson | 4.50 |
| CB Rasul Douglas | 4.59 |
| CB Dane Jackson | 4.57 |
| CB Christian Benford | 4.53 |
| CB Cam Lewis | 4.51 |
| CB Siran Neal | 4.56 |
| S Jordan Poyer | 4.54 |
| S Micah Hyde | 4.56 |
| S Taylor Rapp | 4.78 |
| S Damar Hamlin | 4.60 |
My official analysis of the Bills' secondary: 🐢🐢🐢
Unsurprisingly, the Bills have given up the seventh-most explosive plays (10+ yard runs, 20+ yard passes) in the NFL so far this season:
Explosive plays allowed by defenses through 11 weeks of the season. No team has allowed more explosive passes per game than the Los Angeles Chargers this season pic.twitter.com/SfnP4flFry
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 21, 2023
In case you haven't been watching the Eagles' offense this season, they hit on a lot of big plays down the field to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Of course, if the Eagles are going to hit on big plays down the field, they'll have to give Jalen Hurts time to throw, and the Bills are second in the NFL with 39 sacks. Five players have at least 3.5 sacks this season, so a lot of guys are getting pressure:
• Leonard Floyd: 9.5 sacks
• AJ Epenesa: 6.5
• Ed Oliver: 6
• Greg Rousseau: 4
• Terrel Bernard: 3.5
Five of the Eagles' 10 games this season were played against defenses with at least 30 sacks:
• Chiefs: 36
• Commanders (x2): 35
• Cowboys: 33
• Dolphins: 31
So, nothing new there. The Eagles do have to clean up some of the protection snafus they encountered against the Chiefs on Monday night.
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