August 25, 2025
Candice Ward/Imagn Images
Ashton Jeanty is not only the top rookie on your fantasy draft board, he's got a fun name too.
Want to win your league? Draft rookies. Lots of them. Stash them on your bench. Monitor them on waivers. Be on rookie watch. If you hit on a Brian Thomas or Ladd McConkey, you could win your league. If you don't, you can just drop them for a waiver wire player (who is close to who you'd otherwise be drafting anyway).
History suggests that rookies gain steam in the second half of a season, just when you need them in the fantasy playoffs. They are also typically improperly rated by fantasy rankings and therefore offer immense value if you can hit on a player later in a draft who ends up as a starter.
First-year running backs are already running rampant in fantasy and you best get on board. If Ashton Jeanty is too expensive, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey and TreyVeon Henderson could break out. Jacory Croskey-Merritt could be the starter in Washington. Receivers are deep as well this year.
Rookies are incredibly valuable as keepers. Tyrone Tracy and Drake Maye were picked up off waivers in most leagues last season, and in keeper leagues, those players count as late-round picks. Jayden Daniels went from being picked in the 10th round on some leagues to being a top 4 QB off the board.
Bolded in the tables below are the rookies who were underrated in their initial fantasy "offering." We've compared their initial ADP (average draft position) to their market-corrected positioning the next season. Consider all of this data when you're strategizing to build your team. We've included data from the previous five fantasy drafts as well, with the breakout players bolded.
| Pos | Player | 2024 ADP | 2025 ADP |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 26.2 | 37.7 |
| WR | Malik Nabors | 47.2 | 16.4 |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | 74.8 | 42.3 |
| RB | Jonathan Brooks | 80.1 | NR |
| WR | Keon Coleman | 91.4 | 83.2 |
| WR | Ladd McConkey | 92.2 | 29.6 |
| RB | Blake Corum | 100.6 | NR |
| RB | Trey Benson | 103.4 | 139.7 |
| QB | Caleb Williams | 103.4 | 103.8 |
| QB | Jayden Daniels | 106.3 | 26.5 |
| TE | Brock Bowers | 117.2 | 46.1 |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 127.9 | 81.0 |
| RB | Ray Davis | 137.0 | 149.0 |
| WR | Brian Thomas | 138.8 | 17.5 |
| QB | Bo Nix | 150.0 | 64.1 |
| RB | Kimani Vidal | 154.2 | NR |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 154.8 | 14.3 |
| RB | Braelon Allen | 159.0 | 144.3 |
| RB | Tyrone Tracy | NR | 71.1 |
| WR | Ricky Pearsell | NR | 79.2 |
| QB | Drake Maye | NR | 111.7 |
Last year the trend continued. Puka Nakua, CJ Stroud and Tank Del were all waiver wire additions in their first seasons. It's possible if you are in a keeper league that you still have Nakua below market value on your roster:
| Pos | Player | 2023 ADP | 2024 ADP |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 8.8 | 4.6 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 36.7 | 9.7 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 78.4 | 131.6 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 83.0 | 91.7 |
| WR | Quintin Johnston | 96.1 | 154.6 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | 100.0 | 56.8 |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | 107.2 | 128.1 |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | 125.5 | 56.1 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 146.9 | 59.2 |
| WR | Jonathan Mingo | 152.1 | NR |
| TE | Sam Laporta | 152.9 | 29.8 |
| WR | Marvin Mims | 154.2 | 176.7 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | 163.1 | NR |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | NR | 161.7 |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | NR | 153.9 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | NR | 15.0 |
| WR | Tank Dell | NR | 57.2 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | NR | 66.8 |
| WR | Jayden Reed | NR | 65.3 |
| QB | CJ Stroud | NR | 51.3 |
| Pos | Player | 2022 ADP | 2023 ADP |
| RB | Breece Hall | 44.4 | 36.6 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | 70.5 | 57.0 |
| RB | James Cook | 92.0 | 77.6 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 92.9 | 47.9 |
| WR | Drake London | 102.2 | 44.1 |
| WR | Chris Olave | 110.4 | 20.4 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | 112.7 | 94.2 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | 118.1 | 109.1 |
| WR | George Pickens | 123.6 | 70.0 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | 129.3 | 88.7 |
| RB | Zamir White | 130.5 | 153.7 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | 134.1 | 127.7 |
| TE | Trey McBride | NR | NR |
| WR | Christian Watson | NR | 48.6 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | NR | 15.6 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | NR | 120.3 |
In 2022 every single rookie fantasy player — besides McBride, who broke out a year later, and Zamir White, who is slated to start for the Raiders this season — improved their fantasy stock after just one season. If you picked up Garrett Wilson as a non-ranked free agent sometime two years ago, you have him for a second season as an immensely valuable keeper.
The 2021 class:
| Pos | Player | 2021 ADP | 2022 ADP |
| RB | Najee Harris | 13.3 | 6.4 |
| TE | Kyle Pitts | 44.0 | 40.6 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 57.4 | 19.1 |
| RB | Trey Sermon | 67.0 | 119.4 |
| RB | Michael Carter | 76.6 | 98.5 |
| WR | J'Marr Chase | 77.3 | 11.5 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 84.1 | 86.6 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 105.2 | 44.2 |
| QB | Trey Lance | 118.8 | 97.6 |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 126.7 | 148.3 |
| QB | Justin Fields | 132.0 | 151.3 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | 134.0 | 87.9 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 134.1 | 86.4 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | 134.1 | 126.4 |
| QB | Mac Jones | 147.8 | 163.9 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 155.4 | 119.2 |
| WR | Rondale Moore | 161.3 | 165.1 |
| WR | Terrance Marshall | 162.2 | NR |
| WR | Amon Ra St Brown | 162.6 | 85.6 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | 163.3 | 121.5 |
| QB | Zach Wilson | 176.4 | 182.9 |
| RB | Elijah Mitchell | NR | 41.7 |
| RB | Travis Etienne | NR | 42.0 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | NR | 93.6 |
| WR | Ladarius Toney | NR | 110.9 |
Most rookies drafted in 2021 held their value at worst, with most of them getting better ADP in their second season. Getting good value is the entire purpose of a fantasy draft and rookies are like investments in stock. They may not average 15 points per game in the first few weeks of the season, but the season is a grind and they could by Week 13.
Here is 2020's rookie class and their leap to 2021:
| Pos | Player | 2020 ADP | 2021 ADP |
| RB | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5.6 | 18.3 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | 33.3 | 11.9 |
| RB | Cam Akers | 52.2 | NR (injured) |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 69.9 | NR (injured) |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 102.6 | 31.1 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | 111.6 | 68.1 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | 62.7 | 33.7 |
| WR | Jalen Reagor | 112.4 | 161.0 |
| WR | Henry Ruggs III | 114.1 | 122.5 |
| QB | Joe Burrow | 143.8 | 110.2 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 135.4 | 23.3 |
| RB | Zack Moss | 86.5 | 76.9 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 154.6 | 55.8 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | NR | 64.6 |
| RB | Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 125.9 | NR |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | 156.0 | 97.7 |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | NR | 158.0 |
| RB | A.J. Dillon | 123.3 | 79.0 |
| WR | Laviska Shenault Jr. | NR | 92.1 |
| RB | Antonio Gibson | 81.6 | 14.4 |
| WR | Bryan Edwards | NR | 151.6 |
| QB | Justin Herbert | NR | 61.2 |
| WR | Chase Claypool | 166.9 | 61.3 |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | NR | 95.1 |
**Was drafted relatively highly and assumed a starter before season-ending injury.
You can see the trend loud and clear. Here's one more class from 2019:
| Pos | Player | 2019 ADP | 2020 ADP |
| RB | David Montgomery | 29.7 | 57.5 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | 31.8 | 9.4 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | 52.4 | 13.4 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | 82.9 | 52.8 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | 83.3 | 119.8 |
| RB | Darrell Henderson Jr. | 96.0 | 127.0 |
| QB | Kyler Murray | 109.8 | 61.1 |
| RB | Justice Hill | 111.8 | NR |
| RB | Alexander Mattison | 127.2 | 97.0 |
| WR | D.K. Metcalf | 132.8 | 45.6 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 136.2 | 140.0 |
| WR | Mecole Hardman | 138.6 | 109.6 |
| RB | Damien Harris | 143.4 | 103.3 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 153.1 | 87.7 |
| WR | K'Neal Harry | ND | 154.4 |
| TE | Noah Fant | ND | 115.6 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ND | 57.7 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | ND | 42.2 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | ND | 94.0 |
