March 03, 2021
The Sixers and Jazz can't claim to have a true rivalry without playoff juice to up the stakes, but it's as close as it gets for teams who only see each other twice a year. There's the petty Donovan Mitchell vs. Ben Simmons feud, a clash of elite big men, and two very territorial fanbases behind them, both sides ready to roast long before (and after) tip-off.
Wednesday's meeting of the conference leaders will help send us into the All-Star break with a bang, and with both sides expected to have all of their major stars for the game, there will (hopefully) be no caveats, no could have, no should have, just a good, old fashioned statement game.
Here's what I'm watching for in the 7 p.m. tip off, with the Jazz favored by three points, according to Unibet:
Whenever we hear conversations about the so-called best big man in the game, the discussion usually centers around Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, two unique talents at the position who tilt the game in their own unique ways. Gobert always seems to find himself out of that discussion because of the role he plays on offense, but he should certainly be viewed deadly seriously as a defensive force (at least in the regular season).
The numbers and the film share a complicated picture when we zoom in on the Embiid vs. Gobert matchups over their careers. In the five games they've played against one another, Embiid has emerged victorious in three of them, including a 3-1 stretch between 2018-20. And while Gobert has dented Embiid's efficiency during their meetings — Embiid has shot just 30-for-74 from the field against the Frenchman during their five matchups — that slowdown has come at a cost for Gobert, who has picked up at least five fouls in 3-of-5 meetings, including two foul outs in 2016 and 2019.
It has typically come down to whose style wins out between the disciplined defenders and the foul-drawing force. If you go back all the way to Embiid's rookie season, the possessions Gobert wins on look remarkably similar to what we see in later meetings between the two. He stands his ground and is content to watch Embiid take tough-angle shots over and over again, confident that his wingspan is enough to get the job done.
The good news for Embiid (and thus, the Sixers) is that Embiid has never had that much trouble moving Gobert off of his spot. A lot of Embiid's worst possessions against Gobert were the product of attacking from the three-point line or janky sets fostered by last year's lineup of doom. When Embiid gets the ball on the low block with Gobert on his hip, good things tend to happen:
I could tell you to look at the lineup on the floor in the video clip above, but I think it's more instructive to look at how the Jazz chose to defend Embiid with one of their better spacing lineups on the floor. A picture says 1,000 words, and all that:
This season, Embiid's post touches come on similar plays each time they happen, with a good shooter entering the ball on his strong side and everyone else spread across the arc to take advantage when the double comes. He can win the matchup, but even if he doesn't, he has a group around him that will allow him to punish Utah if they overcompensate to help in the post.
Ben Simmons' performance against the Jazz in Utah earlier this year is likely the single best game he has ever played unless you're adding street cred for big games he has had in the playoffs. With Embiid on the shelf due to injury, Doc Rivers decided to go with a smaller look with Simmons at center, forcing Gobert to cover his 6-foot-10 Swiss army knife in space throughout the evening. That went poorly for Utah to the tune of a career-best 42 points for Simmons.
For Rivers, there is one clear decision to make ahead of this matchup — do you go back to the small look whenever Embiid hits the bench, or do you play a more "normal" rotation? I think it should go without saying they should opt for the former, but that will necessitate some changes in order to make sure no one is playing too many minutes. Okay, mostly that Simmons isn't playing too many minutes.
The Sixers have begun utilizing Simmons more as a screener/roller in recent weeks, and nothing supercharges that look like putting shooters around him on the floor and forgoing the use of a backup center. Before this year, a lineup like Simmons-Harris-Korkmaz-Green-Curry would have seemed like pure fantasy for Sixers fans. There's nothing complicated about how to attack a defense with that group on the floor, especially when you consider that those looks would almost exclusively come against backups with Embiid back in the lineup:
The flip side, unfortunately, is that these lineups still aren't holding up their end of the bargain on the defensive end. Simmons' many defensive gifts do not include protecting the rim, and to get shooting around Simmons, the Sixers have to put a handful of questionable defensive players on the floor. That's a deadly combination — Philly's most played small-ball lineup (Simmons-Scott-Harris-Green-Curry) has given up over 120 points per 100 possessions, in the fourth percentile of all five-man groups tracked by Cleaning The Glass (admittedly in a minuscule 40 possession sample).
Is chasing the offensive upside worth the risk? Long-term, it's something the Sixers all but have to pursue. We'll see if they decide to go back to this well on Wednesday night.
The Jazz run a lot of pick and rolls with their guards and Gobert careening down the lane. The Jazz shoot a lot of threes when help defense is sucked into the paint to defend those pick-and-rolls. Thus, you make smart and sharp rotations, or you die.
That description sells the Jazz offense short by a good margin. They have dangerous pull-up shooters and pretty much every guy on the floor sans the center is a threat to knock down shots at a high clip. Four different prominent rotation players are shooting better than 40 percent from deep on at least four attempts from downtown per game. You're not just picking your poison, you're picking between increasingly deadly poisons.
In their recent meeting on the road, there were a handful of moments that showcased how thin the margin for error is against this team. Seth Curry freezes when Gobert rises in the post, and by the time he has recovered to Georges Niang in the corner, the play is already basically over:
Niang isn't even one of the guys in their "elite" group of shooters, but when a guy that far down in the rotation can hit at a 37.9 percent clip on 3.3 attempts per game, it tests your mental endurance to put out fires and make the right reads for 48 straight minutes. We'll see if the Sixers have their best stuff in the final game for both teams before the All-Star break.
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