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April 20, 2025

Sixers draft lottery simulations: Day 7 of 29

Every day between the end of the regular season and the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, we will simulate the lottery 10 times. How often will the Sixers keep their top-six protected first-round pick?

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Lottery Simulations Picture Patrick Gorski/Imagn Images

On May 12, the Sixers will either be rewarded with a top-six pick or leave the NBA Draft Lottery empty-handed.

Every day between the end of the Sixers' regular season and the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12, we will use Tankathon.com's famous simulation tool to run through the lottery 10 times. Over a 29-day period, we will collect a significant sample of possible outcomes and track those results as the Sixers wait to learn the fate of their own first-round pick.

The Sixers are entering the lottery with the fifth-best set of odds, but they will only keep their first-rounder if it falls in the top six slots due to an obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder from a trade made nearly five years ago.

Let's get to today's simulations:


Today's results

The outcomes of today's batch of 10 simulations:

• Simulation No. 1: 6th pick

• Simulation No. 2: 6th pick

• Simulation No. 3: 9th pick

• Simulation No. 4: 6th pick

• Simulation No. 5: 2nd pick

• Simulation No. 6: 7th pick

• Simulation No. 7: 3rd pick

• Simulation No. 8: 4th pick

• Simulation No. 9: 3rd pick

• Simulation No. 10: 4th pick


MORE: Tyrese Maxey year-in-review


Best simulation of the day

This was a good batch of simulations for the Sixers despite not winning the Cooper Flagg race at any point. The Sixers did land the No. 2 pick one, but the pair of times they finished at No. 3 present an interesting question.

Tankathon 4.20.25 1

Would the Sixers take Rutgers forward Ace Bailey in this spot, where many project him to land? Bailey seems to be far and away the most polarizing prospect in this class -- some see a future superstar in the mold of Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony; others see a deeply flawed player with poor shot selection and a ceiling resembling someone like Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets.

Worst simulation of the day

The Sixers dropped to No. 9 in one simulation today, which is not necessarily worse than finishing No. 7 or No. 8 considering they will lose the pick either way. But this was a wild simulation that features jumps into the top four for both of the teams the Sixers leapfrogged in the lottery standings over the course of their lengthy tanking efforts:

Tankathon 4.20.25 2

For the second day in a row... Flagg and Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. Good lord.

Overall results

The cumulative results of this exercise so far:

Draft PickSimulation OutcomesSimulation Outcome Percentage Actual Percentage Odds
11014.2%
10.5%
2811.4%
10.5%
334.2%
10.6%
457.1%
10.5%
52
2.8%
2.2%
61724.2%
19.6%
72028.5%
26.7%
845.7%
8.7%
911.4%
0.6%

Keep or Lose Pick?Simulation Outcomes
Simulation Outcome Percentage
Actual Percentage Odds
Kept Pick4564.2%
64.0%
Lost Pick2535.8%
36.0%



MORE: Joel Embiid year-in-review


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