April 08, 2026
Colleen Claggett/For PhillyVoice
Tyrese Maxey's sixth NBA season has been a major success. Will it include a playoff run?
Welcome to our tracker of the Sixers' standing and seeding odds in what has become an extremely tight playoff race in the Eastern Conference.
The Sixers have spent weeks entrenched in a battle with the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors. It is a race finally nearing what could be its chaotic end.
Every morning until the Sixers' seed has been locked in, this will be updated to reflect the most recent standings, remaining schedules, odds and tiebreaker scenarios.
Can the Sixers earn a surefire playoff bid by earning a top-six seed, or will they be forced to fight for their lives in the Play-In Tournament for their second consecutive postseason appearance?
Last updated: Before games played on Wednesday, April 8.
The Sixers missed out on a prime opportunity to bank an unexpected win on Monday night in San Antonio after Victor Wembanyama went down, and they are now a game back of the Toronto Raptors with three left to play. Unless Atlanta's season ends in a cataclysmic fashion, the Sixers must be one game better than the Raptors between Wednesday and Sunday to get a top-six seed.
However, Toronto is not the only team the Sixers have to watch for; they could easily end up caring just as much about Orlando or Charlotte by the end of the week. The Hornets lost to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night, a very positive outcome for the Sixers.
Orlando hosts the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night in what should be the most challenging game left for the Magic, whose regular-season finale will come against a Boston team that should have its seed locked in. A Timberwolves win would be somewhat beneficial for the Sixers, giving them more margin for error.
The Hawks, two games ahead of the Sixers with a tiebreaker advantage and only three games remaining, feel largely irrelevant to the Sixers, who in all likelihood are simply vying for the No. 6 seed at this point. Atlanta would officially clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.
The Heat remain in play to finish the season tied with the Sixers, but it would involve the Sixers losing at least two of their final three games, two of which come against teams engaged in blatant tanks. Miami has been locked into the Play-In Tournament; they can finish no higher than No. 7.
Here is how the standings look as the Sixers, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets, Magic and Heat jostle for playoff positioning, plus an updated look at each team's remaining schedule, with strength of schedule numbers courtesy of Tankathon. Matchups listed in italics are parts of back-to-backs:
| Seed | Team | Record | Games back | Remaining opponents | SOS |
| 5 | Atlanta Hawks | 45-34 | 12.0 | @ CLE (50-29) vs. CLE (50-29) @ MIA (41-38) | .595 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 44-35 | 13.0 | vs. MIA (40-37) @ NYK (49-28) vs. BKN (18-58) | .473 |
| 7 | Sixers | 43-36 | 14.0 | @ HOU (50-29) @ IND (18-61) vs. MIL (31-48) | .418 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43-36 | 14.0 | vs. MIN (46-29) @ CHI (29-47) @ BOS (51-25) | .553 |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 43-37 | 14.5 | vs. DET (55-21) @ NYK (49-28) | .684 |
| 10 | Miami Heat (pi) | 41-38 | 16.0 | @ TOR (42-34) @ WAS (17-59) vs. ATL (44-33) | .447 |
It should be noted, for Atlanta's sake, that Cleveland very well may feel incentivized to lose games the rest of the way so they can remain the No. 4 seed and set up what are believed to be more favorable matchups in the first two rounds than what the No. 3 seed will have on its plate. It is why Atlanta securing the No. 5 seed feels nearly inevitable.
A complex three- or four-way tiebreaker involving the Sixers remains very much in play. But first, here is a reminder of the Sixers' two-way tiebreaker outlook:
• The Sixers lost their season series against Atlanta, 0-4, and would lose a two-way tiebreaker.
• The Sixers split their season series against Toronto, 2-2, but would win a two-way tiebreaker due to their superior division record.
• The Sixers won their season series against Orlando, 2-1, and would win a two-way tiebreaker.
• The Sixers won their season series against Charlotte, 2-1, and would win a two-way tiebreaker.
• The Sixers lost their season series against Miami, 1-2, and would lose a two-way tiebreaker.
But what if there is a tie between more than two teams? It is becoming increasingly likely as the season nears its end without much separation between quite a few teams.
Any tiebreakers involving both the Heat and Raptors cannot be calculated just yet, because the Heat face the Raptors in Toronto on Thursday (after that game is played, even all of the most mind-boggling tiebreakers should be clear). But based on the standings and remaining schedules, all of the most likely ties including the Sixers involve some combination of Charlotte, Toronto and Orlando. This is fortunate for the Sixers, who do not perform well in tiebreakers involving Miami and/or Atlanta.
Against Toronto, Charlotte and Orlando, though, the Sixers shape up as well as possible. Their win over Charlotte on March 28 looms large; it did not just give them the individual tiebreaker advantage over the Hornets, but also a leg up in multiple larger tiebreaker scenarios.
Here are the most likely three- and four-team ties that could happen which involve the Sixers, plus the ensuing results (all of which have already been determined):
| Tied teams | Post-tiebreaker order |
| ORL, PHI, TOR | 1. PHI, 2. TOR, 3. ORL |
| CHA, PHI, TOR | 1. PHI, 2. TOR, 3. CHA |
| CHA, PHI, ORL | 1. PHI, 2. CHA, 3. ORL |
| CHA, ORL, PHI, TOR | 1. PHI, 2. TOR, 3. CHA, 4. ORL |
Barring an unexpected late plummet from Atlanta – after losing that season series 0-4, the Sixers would not win any three-team tiebreakers involving the Hawks – the Sixers should welcome these complicated ties for the No. 6 seed. A wild four-team tie with all three of their primary competitors would make the Sixers the one team out of them all to avoid the Play-In Tournament.
The most simple way to write it out: if the Sixers finish the season 3-0 and the Raptors do not, the Sixers will dodge any play-in scenarios.
Each day, we will end by looking at specific end-of-season seeding odds from two trusted sources, which update after every slate of games.
First, take a look at the odds from basketball-reference:
| Team | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 |
| Hawks | 81.5% | 13.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | n/a |
| Raptors | 14.9% | 53.7% | 27.3% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sixers | 1.8% | 27.5% | 42.0% | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Magic | 1.0% | 2.6% | 17.7% | 39.5% | 36.4% | 2.8% |
| Hornets | 0.9% | 2.8% | 7.9% | 33.2% | 34.0% | 21.3% |
| Heat | n/a | n/a | 0.9% | 5.0% | 21.4% | 72.7% |
Then, from Dunks & Threes:
| Team | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 |
| Hawks | 59.6% | 33.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | n/a |
| Raptors | 35.7% | 29.2% | 18.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 0.1% |
| Sixers | 2.9% | 30.7% | 28.2% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 4.0% |
| Magic | 0.7% | 3.8% | 26.9% | 24.4% | 36.2% | 7.9% |
| Hornets | 1.0% | 3.2% | 20.3% | 28.6% | 25.0% | 21.8% |
| Heat | n/a | n/a | 2.3% | 19.0% | 12.5% | 66.2% |
Both models – taking the aforementioned larger ties into account – see the Hornets and Magic as the clear long-shot contenders to notch a top-six seed, while Miami is already locked out of that equation. But it is clear that, after the Sixers lost to the Spurs and watched Toronto beat the Heat the following night, it is the Raptors who have the upper hand. But it can all change with one unexpected outcome.
