May 08, 2025
Patrick Gorski/Imagn Images
On May 12, the Sixers will either be rewarded with a top-six pick or leave the NBA Draft Lottery empty-handed.
Every day between the end of the Sixers' regular season and the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12, we will use Tankathon.com's famous simulation tool to run through the lottery 10 times. Over a 29-day period, we will collect a significant sample of possible outcomes and track those results as the Sixers wait to learn the fate of their own first-round pick.
The Sixers are entering the lottery with the fifth-best set of odds, but they will only keep their first-rounder if it falls in the top six slots due to an obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder from a trade made nearly five years ago.
Let's get to today's simulations:
The outcomes of today's batch of 10 simulations:
• Simulation No. 1: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 2: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 3: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 4: 2nd pick
• Simulation No. 5: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 6: 3rd pick
• Simulation No. 7: 4th pick
• Simulation No. 8: 8th pick
• Simulation No. 9: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 10: 6th pick
MORE: Jared McCain to represent Sixers on stage at lottery
No lottery victories for the Sixers in today's batch, but they did land the No. 2 overall pick in one simulation:
Last month, I wrote about the Sixers' options in that slot with two franchise cornerstones already cemented in the backcourt and Rutgers guard Dylan Harper as the best player available.
The Sixers lost their pick in four of today's simulations, including this drop to No. 7 thanks to jumps from a team directly behind them and a team near the back of the line:
I have become convinced that if the Sixers lose their pick on Monday, it will be caused by jumps from at least one of the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.
The cumulative results of this exercise so far:
| Draft Pick | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| 1 | 32 | 12.8% | 10.5% |
| 2 | 30 | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| 3 | 18 | 7.2% | 10.6% |
| 4 | 32 | 12.8% | 10.5% |
| 5 | 9 | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 43 | 17.2% | 19.6% |
| 7 | 65 | 26.0% | 26.7% |
| 8 | 20 | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| 9 | 1 | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Keep or Lose Pick? | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| Kept Pick | 164 | 65.6% | 64.0% |
| Lost Pick | 86 | 34.4% | 36.0% |
SIXERS YEAR-IN-REVIEW
Joel Embiid | Guerschon Yabusele | Paul George | Jared McCain | Tyrese Maxey | Andre Drummond | Quentin Grimes | Jared Butler | Kyle Lowry | Kelly Oubre Jr. | Justin Edwards | Ricky Council IV | Eric Gordon | Lonnie Walker IV | Adem Bona
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