October 02, 2025
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
49ers at Rams (-7.5): The 49ers will be without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Juaun Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa, among others. They're going to have little other choice than to get the ball 20+ times to an already fragile Christian McCaffrey. The Niners' season has a chance to go sideways very quickly after a 3-0 start.
Vikings (-3.5) at Browns: The Browns benched Joe Flacco, and Dillon Gabriel will get his first NFL start. This game is in London, and the Vikings have something of a unique advantage since they were already in Europe having played the Steelers in Ireland last week.
I simply can't trust Carson Wentz against this Browns pass rush to make this a pick against the spread, but Brian Flores and the Vikings defense should presumably be able to create problems for a rookie quarterback making his first ever start.
Broncos at Eagles (-3.5): As noted in our Eagles-Broncos preview, the Broncos are a rare team that poses a threat to the Eagles with their edge rushers, as Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have two of the best get-offs in the NFL. Behind their pass rush, the Broncos also have a solid secondary, led by 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have a strong run game behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and a second year quarterback in Bo Nix who isn't afraid to let it rip.
They're also a lot healthier than the Eagles.
This is yet another formidable opponent that the Eagles will be facing after a difficult first four games. But ultimately, the Eagles have won 20 of their last 21 games, with their only loss coming in a game in which Jalen Hurts was concussed in the first quarter. It's probably just not a good idea to pick against them, even if they have struggled for long stretches of games.
Dolphins (-1) at Panthers: Who cares?
Cowboys (-2.5) at Jets: The Jets and Cowboys have two of most meddlesome owners in the NFL, and oh hey, they have a combined record of 1-6-1.
The Cowboys' defense is bad, but at least their offense can put points on the board.
Raiders at Colts (-6.5): The Colts started 3-0 and probably would have beaten the Rams last week if receiver A.D. Mitchell hadn't begun celebrating a touchdown before crossing the goal line last week. I still believe they are a legitimately good football team. Easy pick over this bad Raiders team.
Giants at Saints (-2): The Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season with an ACL tear, stripping their fans of one of the rare players worth watching. But they also got a spark from Jaxson Dart last week and have at least been competitive in some of their games this season, even with a hard schedule. They've certainly been better than the Saints, who have shown nothing. I like the Giants to get to 2-0 under Dart.
Texans (-1.5) at Ravens: The Ravens won't have Lamar Jackson in this game, hence the Texans being favored by 1.5 points. I had to look up who the Ravens' backup is, and drumroll... it's Cooper Rush, who actually has a 9-5 career record as a starter, even if he hasn't looked very good when he has played.
I understand the loss of confidence in a Ravens team that has underperformed this season – particularly on defense – but I guess I'm a little confused why exactly anyone should have any faith at all in this bad Texans team with a terrible offensive line.
Titans at Cardinals (-7.5): The Titans already have a point differential of -69, and they have lost their games by increasingly larger margins each week.
• Week 1: Lost by 8
• Week 2: Lost by 14
• Week 3: Lost by 21
• Week 4: Lost by 26
The Cardinals are stuck in mediocrity with Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon, but at least they're better than the Titans.
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-3.5): The Bucs suffered yet another loss on offense, as Bucky Irving is in a walking boot with a foot injury. They were already without WR Mike Evans, RG Cody Mauch, and RT Luke Goedeke. They also now have some injuries on defense, particularly at corner, with Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison getting banged up against the Eagles.
Still, this team fights like hell, and they should benefit from Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin getting their feet wet in their returns to the field last week.
The Seahawks defense has been very good so far this season, but they also haven't really played any good offenses yet.
Lions (-10) at Bengals: The Lions have averaged over 41.3 points over their last three games, and are the chalk survivor pick this week. More on that in a moment.
Commanders at Chargers (-2.5): The Commanders and Chargers each suffered bad losses Week 4 to the Falcons and Giants, respectively.
I like the Chargers' chances of tearing up this old ass Commanders defense more than I trust Jayden Daniels' ability to come back from injury and will this team to a road win over a good team on his own.
Patriots at Bills (-8): The Patriots are a team on the rise with Drake Maye playing well, but they're not yet ready to compete with the Bills, who have scored at least 30 points in each of their first four games.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Jaguars: The Jaguars have been frisky, starting their season at 3-1, but it's hard to trust them against one of the NFL's powerhouses, especially with the Chiefs beginning to get their act together.
BYE: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Steelers
In past years I've been a quick out in the one survivor pool I'm in, but I've never finished a season below 0.500 on my picks against the spread. This year I've made it further in survivor than I have in a while, but I've been absolutely horrid (0.346) in my picks against the spread.
It's going to be an uphill battle to get back to 0.500. Please say a prayer. The odds are against me to keep that streak alive. 😟
The Lions are pretty safe pick in survivor pools this week, even if playing on the road. The Bengals are just a complete mess without Joe Burrow, and could be holding a fire sale soon.
I also considered the Cardinals, but decided I'm not putting my faith in Jonathan Gannon and Kyler Murray as early as Week 5.
• Picks against the spread: Cowboys (-2.5), Giants (+2), Buccaneers (+3.5), Chargers (-2.5).
• Eagles picks: 4-0
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 461-397-22 (0.536)
MORE: Five things to watch in Eagles-Broncos
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