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January 25, 2025

Conference Championship Round NFL picks

Who will be the two teams facing off against each other in Super Bowl LIX?

Eagles NFL
012525JalenHurtsJaydenDaniels Bill Streicher/Imagn Images

The Commanders' one big advantage over the Eagles is at quarterback.

For the gambling degenerates, here are our Conference Championship Round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

051020EaglesLogo2020

Commanders at Eagles (-6): The Commanders have a dynamic, exciting, playmaking quarterback in Jayden Daniels who can take over games. He is playing at a high level as a rookie, while Jalen Hurts is not, at least as a passer. That is a pretty significant checkmark in the Commanders' favor in this matchup. 

However, the Eagles are better almost everywhere else:

• Running back: Eagles (and it isn't close)
• Wide receiver: Eagles
• Tight end: Eagles
• Offensive line: Eagles (and it isn't close)
• Defensive line: Eagles
• Linebackers: Commanders
• Cornerback: Eagles
• Safety: Eagles

That's too much for Daniels to overcome, and the Commanders' underdog story will end in Philly on Sunday. I do think this will be a close game, with Jake Elliott making a walk-off field goal to advance to the Super Bowl, 33-30.

090920BillsLogo2020

Bills at Chiefs (-2): Trusting the Bills to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs feels a little bit like Charlie Brown trusting Lucy to hold the football for him:


But when I look at these two teams, the Bills are just better. They have a great rushing attack, their quarterback has had a better season, and defensively they have had a knack all season for forcing turnovers.

But also, ultimately I'm going to root for whoever I pick in this game, and Patrick Mahomes has gone from such an enjoyable player to watch to a ref-baiting flopper. I just don't want to watch the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again, and I can't imagine who would, other than Chiefs fans.

So I guess I'm picking with my heart to some degree here, even if the Bills are also just better.

(Deep down inside I know the Chiefs will win this game because of some nonsense.)


• Picks against the spread: Commanders (+6), Bills (+2).

• 2024 season, straight up: 203-79 (0.720)
• 2024 season, ATS: 61-42-3 (0.590)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510) 
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500) 
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 451-378-22 (0.543)


MORE: Eagles-Commanders NFC Championship Game injury report, with analysis


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