January 30, 2022

Conference championship round NFL playoff picks

By Jimmy Kempski
PhillyVoice Staff

For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my conference championship round NFL playoff picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread — with all conference championship round lines coming via Sidelines.io.

Bengals at Chiefs (-7): Joe Burrow has proven very quickly that he is not fazed by big-time NFL playoff football, and he leads a very fun, young group of skill players that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.

Defensively, I was highly impressed by Cincinatti's toughness on the road against a seasoned playoff team in the Titans, who have a physical offensive line and, you know, Derrick Henry. They put their big boy pants on last weekend and got the job done.

However, that Bengals' offensive line is a mess, as Burrow was sacked nine times by the Titans, and pressured all day even when Tennessee didn't get home. I'm not sure how they fix that without compromising their explosiveness down the field.

The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and they're playing their best football of the season. There's really no need to overthink it.

49ers at Rams (-3.5): I really struggled picking this game. The Niners have won the last six games in this series:

2019, Week 6: Niners 20 at Rams 7
2019, Week 16: Rams 31 at Niners 34
2020, Week 6: Rams 16 at Niners 24
2020, Week 12: Niners 23 at Rams 20
2021, Week 10: Rams 10 at Niners 31
2021, Week 18: Niners 27 at Rams 24, OT

That's not meaningless.

The Niners are such a tough team, both defensively and along their offensive line. Even their skill players dish out punishment to would-be tacklers. They've got to be a very unappealing team to play.

But... and this is a super important point... their quarterback stinks.

The Rams have three major stars on defense in Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey, to go along with a good supporting cast around them. Additionally, while Matthew Stafford is streaky, which isn't necessarily a great thing, he's currently on a hot streak. In two playoff games, he has completed 41 of 55 pass attempts (74.5%) for 568 yards (10.3 YPA), 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and a QB rating of 131.5.

The Rams are better, but the Niners seem to find ways to win. I'll take the Rams to win in a toss up, but the Niners (+3.5) feels like a decent enough value play.