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October 20, 2017

Eagles currently have the best record in the NFL: A look at their playoff odds

Eagles NFL

After the previously 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs lost on an Oakland Raiders TD pass from Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree with no time left on the clock Thursday night, the Eagles were left as the only one-loss team in the NFL.

Still, there isn't much of a cushion between the Birds and the rest of the league, as there is a 14-team cluster of two-loss teams directly below them. They are as follows:

Team Record Winning % 
 Eagles5-1 .833
 Chiefs5-2  .714
 Patriots4-2  .667
 Steelers4-2  .667
 Vikings4-2  .667
 Packers4-2  .667
 Rams4-2  .667
 Panthers4-2  .667
 Bills3-2  .600
 Dolphins3-2  .600
 Broncos3-2  .600
 Seahawks3-2  .600
 Saints3-2  .600
 Falcons3-2  .600
 Redskins3-2  .600


Still, after six games, the Eagles are in an excellent position to make the playoffs this season. Football Outsiders projects the Eagles as finishing with 11.5 wins, with a 92.1 percent chance of making the playoffs this season. Here are some additional probabilities, via Football Outsiders:

• Chance of winning the NFC East: 78.3 percent
• Chance of earning a first-round bye: 60.9 percent
• Chance of earning a wildcard spot: 13.8 percent
• Chance of being the No. 1 seed: 41.6 percent
• Chance of being the No. 2 seed: 19.3 percent
• Chance of being the No. 3 seed: 11.1 percent
• Chance of being the No. 4 seed: 6.3 percent
• Chance of being the No. 5 seed: 9.1 percent
• Chance of being the No. 6 seed: 4.7 percent

Here's how the Eagles' odds of making the playoffs compare with the rest of the NFC:

 TeamChance of making playoffs Team Chance of making playoffs 
 Eagles92.1% Falcons 41.7% 
 Rams69.3%  Packers28.0% 
 Vikings68.2%  Cowboys12.0% 
 Saints56.7%  Buccaneers10.8% 
 Seahawks56.6%  Cardinals7.4% 
 Panthers56.4%  Bears1.3% 
 Redskins51.7%  Giants0.7% 
 Lions47.0%  49ers0.1% 


FiveThirtyEight.com also projects the Eagles to have 11.5 wins, though they are not quite as bullish on the Eagles' chances of making the playoffs as Football Outsiders. Here's how FiveThirtyEight sees it:

 TeamChance of making playoffs Team Chance of making playoffs 
 Eagles88% Rams 33% 
 Packers69%  Cardinals32% 
 Seahawks65%  Redskins31% 
 Vikings56%  Cowboys23% 
 Falcons56%  Buccaneers10% 
 Saints51%  Giants4% 
 Panthers45%  Bears2% 
 Lions34%  49ers<1% 


I'm not sure how the Packers have the second-best probability to make the playoffs with Aaron Rodgers gone for the season, but that might help explain how FiveThirtyEight had me convinced that Hillary Clinton was going to run away with the presidential election.


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