January 25, 2026
Steven Bisig/Imagn Images
If Sam Darnold is even average against the Rams, the Seahawks should be playing in the Super Bowl.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my NFL Conference Championship Round picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Patri*ts (-4) at Broncos: The Broncos have a better overall roster — certainly a better defense — than the Patri*ts, and this game is in Denver, which is kind of a big deal.
But for me, maybe this is reductive #analysis, but, I mean, the Patri*ts have an MVP candidate at quarterback in Drake Maye, and the Broncos will be starting Jarrett Stidham in place of an injured Bo Nix. 🤷♂️
I wouldn't overthink this one.
Rams at Seahawks (-2): This is basically the Super Bowl. Whichever team wins this game will be substantial favorites over whoever wins the AFC Championship Game.
The Rams and Seahawks played a couple of close games during the regular season.
In the first matchup Week 11, Sam Darnold threw 4 INTs and the Seahawks still almost won anyway, as they missed a field goal at the end of regulation.
In their Week 17 matchup, the Rams and Seahawks played what was in my opinion the best game of the 2025 season. The Seahawks overcame a 30-14 deficit and won. The Rams ran 25 more plays, they outgained the Seahawks by 166 yards, they held the ball longer than Seattle by more than 14 minutes of game time, and on the eye test Matthew Stafford looked the part of a quarterback ready to win another Super Bowl, while Darnold... didn't.
However, the Rams walked away with a loss, mainly because of an issue that has plagued them this season, their special teams.
There were so many huge plays in that game, but in my opinion, that one 👆 was by far the biggest. It didn't help that kicker Harrison Mevis missed a 48-yard FG that would have given the Rams a lead with about 2 minutes to go.
Darnold threw two really bad INTs in that game. On the first one, he didn't see Josh Wallace in the slot, and Wallace returned it for a near pick-six.
On his second INT, he didn't see Kobie Turner dropping into coverage on zone blitz:
He also threw a lateral off of a defender's head, but the ball bounced into the end zone, where Zach Charbonnet casually picked it just to be a nice guy and hand it to the ref, and it wound up being a successful two-point conversion, lol.
Darnold was also sacked four times, at least a couple of which he had plenty of time to get rid of the ball.
One such occasion was when the Seahawks got the ball back with about two minutes to go after Harrison Mevis' missed field goal. The Seahawks had a chance to execute a 25-yard drive to get comfortably into Jason Myers' field goal range, but he took a bad sack on 2nd and 8 and that was basically the end of the threat.
Darnold did not look good for four quarters during that game. BUT THEN... in overtime... He was 5 of 6 for 49 yards, a TD, and then a pass for a 2-point conversion for the win. And that's all most people will remember.
I guess what I'm getting at here is that Darnold outright stunk 🦨🦨🦨 in two games against the Rams this season, and the Seahawks almost swept them anyway. If the Seahawks get so much as an average performance out of Darnold, their overall roster is better than the Rams', and they should take care of business.
The Seahawks also have the advantage of the Rams playing in their third straight road game, and their fifth road game in their last six weeks. The Seahawks, meanwhile, had a Wild Card Round bye, and then about as easy a game as possible against the 49ers in the Divisional Round.
I have to pick the Broncos and Seahawks this week and in the Super Bowl, in whatever order. I like the Broncos' chances of beating the Pats more than I like their chances against the Seahawks, so I'll use them now.
• Wild Card Round: Rams ✅
• Divisional Round: Patri*ts ✅
• Conference Championship Round: Broncos
• Picks against the spread: Seahawks (-2).
• Eagles picks: 10-8
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 501-438-24 (0.533)
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