April 19, 2024
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Central to the Sixers' defensive game-plan against the New York Knicks: limiting All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson, whose 28.7 points per game in 2023-24 ranked fourth-best in the NBA.
After the Sixers' part-thrilling, part-horrifying victory over the Miami Heat in the Play-In Tournament on Wednesday night, first year head coach Nick Nurse's unit is preparing for a different beast: the 50-win New York Knicks.
Despite facing as much adversity as anyone in the NBA in terms of injuries -- even the Sixers -- New York marched into the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed thanks to a revamped roster led by All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson, who has posted a superstar-caliber season. While the Sixers will win or lose largely based on the merits of their own group, they must implement loads of strategical adjustments to optimize their ability to prevent the Knicks from doing what they do best.
With that in mind, here is one thought on each player expected to be a regular in Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau's rotation ahead of the series kicking off Saturday night:
Key stats: 28.7 points per game (fourth-best in NBA), 6.7 assists per game, 3.6 rebounds per game, 6.5 free throw attempts per game, 40.1 three-point percentage, 59.2 true shooting percentage
Brunson is, as the Sixers' own first-time All-Star point guard, Tyrese Maxey, called him, the "head of the snake" for the Knicks, particularly with three-time All-Star forward Julius Randle having been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.
Brunson has put together one of the most impressive developmental arcs in recent NBA history. This past campaign was his sixth in the NBA; in each of the last four years he has made a significant leap from where he ended the prior season. That continued elevation led to him reaching superstar status in 2023-24.
What makes Brunson such a great all-around offensive force is how good he has gotten in areas other than simply getting into the lane, drawing fouls and scoring. Brunson has become one of the league's most prolific three-point shooters after shooting a combined 35.2 percent from beyond the arc on minuscule volume during his first two professional seasons -- both with the Dallas Mavericks, where he spent the first four years of his career after being drafted No. 33 overall in 2018. Brunson has made over 40 percent of his three-point tries in three of the last four seasons, including each of the two years he has spent in New York since signing a four-year contract with the Knicks as an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2022. On top of that, the point guard who ended over a decade of Knicks futility at the position has become an improved creator for others. Among Brunson's many career-highs in 2023-24 were those 6.7 assists per game.
But man, this guy is an unbelievable scorer. Brunson boasts incredible strength and body control for a player of his size, which not only compensates for suboptimal burst and explosion but allows him to contort his body in unusual ways to generate unconventional but high-quality looks for himself. He is one of the best post-up scorers of any guard in recent NBA history. He is automatic in the mid-range area, and his recent explosion as a three-point shooter makes him a truly dynamic three-level threat who can score in every way conceivable.
Key stats: 15.5 points per game, 3.7 rebounds per game, 1.3 steals per game, 8.7 three-point attempts per game, 40.1 three-point percentage, 59.7 true shooting percentage
After a trade and injuries derailed DiVincenzo's promising career in 2021-22, he signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Golden State Warriors in hopes of establishing his value to a winning team and earning a payday elsewhere -- and he did exactly that. DiVincenzo just finished his first regular season with the Knicks after signing a four-year contract worth $50 million last summer. At the time, some questioned whether or not he could live up to the deal. Now, it looks like one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA.
DiVincenzo opened the season as a key reserve for the Knicks before quickly playing his way into the starting lineup, where he has become a fixture during a season riddled with injuries to players like Randle and others. DiVincenzo logged 81 games, tied for the most on the Knicks. DiVincenzo has always been a reliable two-way player, and his defense continued to impress this season: the Villanova product took on challenging defensive assignments time and time again, proving his worth on that end of the floor.
While DiVincenzo entered the league as a capable three-point shooter and has grown in that area since becoming a professional, his output from beyond the arc this season was downright outrageous. Only two players in the entire NBA made more three-point shots than DiVincenzo this season: Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic. DiVincenzo's combination of excellent efficiency and enormous volume from deep makes him one of the game's most lethal three-point shooters.
Where DiVincenzo may be able to hurt the Sixers most is with his movement. He is an intuitive player whose movement -- particularly off the ball -- is impressive. The Sixers lack weak on-ball perimeter defenders: even someone like Buddy Hield, who may be their weakest defensive link at this juncture of the season, is capable on the ball. But where Hield, Tobias Harris and others sometimes struggle is containing their man when they do not possess the ball. Not only can DiVincenzo shoot on the move, but he is intelligent enough to know exactly how and when to free himself up to take those looks. Focus is always a must in the playoffs, but that is especially the case against someone like DiVincenzo.
Key stats (with Knicks): 23 games, 14.1 points per game, 4.5 three-point attempts per game, 39.4 three-point percentage, 59.1 true shooting percentage, 20-3 record
Using promising young guard Immanuel Quickley to upgrade from RJ Barrett to Anunoby helped turn the Knicks from a good team to a great team, and it happened almost instantly: New York acquired Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 30. The next day, they began a run in which they won 12 out of 14 games before the prototypical 3-and-D wing went down with an injury that sidelined him off and on for more than two months. Anunoby only played in 23 of a possible 50 games after being traded, but the Knicks have looked like a well-oiled machine whenever he has been in the lineup, going 20-3 with Anunoby on the floor in the regular season.
Anunoby has long been thought of as one of the most portable players in the NBA: that is, he could be plugged into any roster league-wide and fit like a glove. That belief has largely been confirmed since he arrived in New York, where he has been a perfect star role player: he knocks down open threes, he provides more than enough secondary scoring, and he defends not just well, but across multiple positions and archetypes.
The big question in this series is: who will Anunoby defend? He is 6-foot-7 and 232 pounds, but part of what makes him such a valuable piece is that he also has the foot speed to stick with guards. In fact, he likely has better movement skills than any other Knicks perimeter defender. Does that mean he will defend Maxey? He could be used on someone like Harris or Kelly Oubre Jr. so that he is not only available one-on-one against those scoring-minded wings, but also available as a help defender.
Anunoby's versatility as a defender combined with the Knicks' depth on that end of the floor means he will likely serve several roles over the course of a series that could very well go the distance. But he is likely the favorite in the clubhouse to defend the Sixers' dynamic three-level scoring point guard when Game 1 tips off on Saturday evening.
Key stats: 9.1 points per game, 8.4 rebounds per game, 4.1 assists per game, 43.4 field goal percentage, 3.2 three-point attempts per game, 31.0 three-point percentage
I believe Hart has the potential to put together a series that is uniquely damaging to the Sixers and frustrating to their fans. The Villanova product -- yes, another one -- is tailor-made to be the role player who swings a game, or perhaps even a series, with hustle plays and high-IQ plays.
On offense, Hart is mostly a supporting cast member who exists in the background. The Sixers will certainly help off of him in their attempts to limit Brunson. But he is talented enough that, if left open, he can do damage. Hart only made 31 percent of his three-point tries this year, but his career mark -- 34.4 percent from beyond the arc -- indicates that he is slightly more capable from three-point range than the 31 percent figure would lead one to believe.
As his role has increased due to Randle's absence, Hart's offensive production has improved. He scored a season-high 31 points on 14-19 shooting on April 4, and in the Knicks' final four regular season games -- a stretch which began a few days later -- he scored 15.3 points per game while shooting a whopping 61 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point range.
On the defensive end, Hart will be trusted with countless assignments. He should see some work against Maxey, Oubre and Harris to limit their diverse scoring methods. He could roam off Kyle Lowry as a help defender or chase Hield around screens. Like Lowry, another Villanova product, Hart thrives defending players larger than his 6-foot-4 frame. It would not even be stunning if he spent time on Embiid, particularly if the Knicks tried to implement a zone defense similar to the one Miami used on Wednesday night that the Sixers struggled with.
Where Hart maximizes his ability to anger opposing players, coaches and fans is on the glass. Hart is a masterful rebounder: he finished 16th in the league in total rebounds despite the aforementioned 6-foot-4 listed height due to a marvelous combination of strength, instincts and energy. Keeping Hart off the boards will be a pivotal part of limiting the damage he does during this series.
Key stats: 7.8 points per game, 8.3 rebounds per game, 2.5 assists per game, 1.2 steals per game, 1.1 blocks per game, 64.4 field goal percentage
Hartenstein had a breakout season as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers in 2021-22, and last season solidified himself as one of the league's truly elite backup centers in his first year with the Knicks. After an early injury that wiped out the majority of Mitchell Robinson's season, Hartenstein has been turned into a starter -- and has served admirably.
Hartenstein did not take enough shots to qualify for the field goal percentage leaderboard, but was one of the most efficient players in the league by that metric. His entire existence as a scorer revolves around dunks, layups and put-backs, to be fair, but there is still something to be said for his efficiency.
Hartenstein's signature skill has long been his rebounding: listed at 7-foot on the dot and 250 pounds, he is a true bruiser who thrives battling with other bigs in the paint and doing all of the dirty work. He is a decent shot-blocker and has good hands. Among players with at least 30 games in 2023-24, nine averaged at least 1.2 steals and one block per game. A third of that group is participating in this series: Hartenstein, Robinson and Embiid.
One Hartenstein trend worth monitoring as this series gets underway: he averaged a career-high 2.5 assists per game this season, a modest number, but noteworthy enough for a center who is not supposed to ever be a hub of his team's offense. Across the four regular season contests between these two teams, on several occasions Hartenstein, either after grabbing offensive rebounds or failing to get by his man, was able to survey the floor and find open cutters. He is no Nikola Jokic, but he is capable of making a good read.
Key stats: 19.5 minutes per game, 8.3 points per game, 45.2 field goal percentage, 3.9 three-point attempts per game, 41.0 three-point percentage, 59.0 true shooting percentage
"Deuce" McBride, the third-year, 23 year-old guard, has emerged as a trusted reserve for Thibodeau this season after relatively underwhelming rookie and sophomore campaigns. Pestering defense against opposing guards has always been McBride's calling card, but tremendous three-point shooting is what catapulted him from intriguing prospect to quality contributor on a great team.
The Sixers will be aggressive in their coverages of Brunson, and that will lead to other Knicks perimeter shooters being given good looks from deep. How McBride handles those looks early in the series will likely determine his playing time for the remainder of it: his 41 percent mark from three-point range this season in itself makes him a threat from beyond the arc. But McBride shot a combined 28.2 percent from deep in his first two NBA seasons. Surely he has improved, but it is not as if his reputation as a jump-shooter is ironclad.
The other storyline to follow with McBride is how often he is tailing Maxey when he is in the game. If he can live up to his reputation as a defender against Maxey, even for just a few minutes at a time, it would do wonders for the Anunobys, DiVincenzos and Harts of the world.
Key stats: 31 games, 24.8 minutes per game, 5.6 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game, 1.2 steals per game, 1.1 blocks per game
Robinson missed the majority of the season after having to undergo ankle surgery, but returned on March 27 -- albeit in a limited role: in 10 appearances since returning -- all off the bench -- he has logged just 15.5 minutes per game. Robinson figures to remain the Knicks' backup center for the remainder of the season, and it is unclear how many minutes he is be able to play at this point in his recovery.
Availability is the biggest question with Robinson: while Hartenstein may be more reliable -- especially because he is not a 51.8 percent career shooter from the free throw line like Robinson is -- Robinson is the more athletically-gifted player, and his combination of a 7-foot-4 wingspan and impressive leaping ability makes him the higher-upside play for Thibodeau.
In the past, Embiid has gotten the best of Robinson -- but that is true for nearly every center Embiid has ever faced. There have been times where Robinson's length has bothered Embiid, who occasionally struggles against players with that kind of frame. Hartenstein will be Thibodeau's primary defender of Embiid for the entire series in all likelihood, but that does not mean Robinson cannot make an impact on this series.
Key stats (with Knicks): 29 games, 19.2 minutes per game, 10.4 points per game, 43.0 field goal percentage, 4.4 three-point attempts per game, 37.0 three-point percentage, 54.9 true shooting percentage
Key stats (with Pistons): 28 games, 32.9 minutes per game, 20.2 points per game, 46.8 field goal percentage, 7.4 three-point attempts per game, 41.5 three-point percentage, 60.0 true shooting percentage
Bogdanovic was dealt to New York alongside former Sixer Alec Burks at the trade deadline -- Burks has since played his way out of the rotation -- and while Bogdanvoic's role was always going to decrease as he went from the league-worst Pistons to a team with championship aspirations, his decline has been a disappointment.
Over the last four seasons predating this one, Bogdanovic scored a combined 19.1 points per game and shot exactly 40 percent from three-point range on massive volume (6.6 three-point attempts per game over a 263-game span). He genuinely became one of the league's single most underrated wing scorers. Things were trending in the right direction for him early in the year, even on a brutal Detroit team, but his points per game have nearly been cut in half since he was dealt, from over 20 points per game before the move to barely in double-digits since.
This likely does not matter much, though, to Sixers fans who remember the team's loss at home to the Knicks on Feb. 22. Bogdanovic lit the building on fire, scoring 22 points in just 23 minutes and on just 13 shots. He went 8-13 from the field, including knocking down all six of his three-point tries. The 22 points equals the most he has scored since joining New York, though he did author four 30-plus-point performances as a Piston -- one of which came against the Sixers in December.
Again, certain Knicks perimeter players are inevitably going to be left open from beyond the arc. Bogdanovic should not be one of them, because his lengthy track record as a three-point shooter indicates that he will burn the Sixers as he has twice already this season and many times in the past.
Key stats (with Knicks): 49 games, 24.2 minutes per game, 7.6 points per game, 7.2 rebounds per game, 0.6 steals per game, 1.1 blocks per game, 52.5 field goal percentage
It is unclear what Achiuwa's role will be in this series -- and if he will even have one, barring an injury. The bouncy and athletic big, drafted just one pick ahead of Maxey in the 2020 NBA Draft by Miami, was thought of as a throw-in in the Anunoby trade before the Knicks' rush of injuries forced him into a consistent role, including 18 starts. Despite Achiuwa surprising and impressing in his role with the Knicks thus far, Thibodeau is known for his extremely thin rotations, especially this time of year. He may simply stick with the eight aforementioned rotation pieces, leaving Achiuwa on the outside looking in.
However, there is a reason I wanted to include the 6-foot-8, 225-pound 24 year-old. While I remain a heavy skeptic of what his role can be on a consistent basis playing for a good team and contributing to winning basketball, he is one-of-a-kind for the Knicks in one way: he is the only player on New York's roster even theoretically capable of both defending Embiid and making a three-point shot. Achiuwa is a far cry from a consistent three-point shooter -- he is a career 30.7 percent shooter from beyond the arc -- but he has attempted 362 triples in the regular season over the course of his four NBA regular seasons. For comparison, Hartenstein and Robinson have each played six NBA seasons: Hartenstein has attempted 87 regular season threes in his career -- including only three this season -- and Robinson, somehow, has never attempted a single three-point shot in a regular season game... not even a heave.
Embiid has struggled with stretch bigs, both in recent and distant history -- including Miami's Kevin Love, who even at age 35 scored 10 points (including 2-4 shooting from beyond the arc) and was a team-best +11 on Wednesday night. Achiuwa is not in the same stratosphere as Love as a three-point shooter, because -- again -- he is barely even competent from three-point territory in the first place. But there is a world in which a tremendous athlete who is physically capable of taking and making a three-pointer in an NBA environment in 2024 could give Embiid fits, even if just for a few minutes before the reigning NBA MVP figured him out and picked him apart. Against a player as dominant on both ends of the floor as Embiid, Thibodeau would gladly take that from Achiuwa.
