May 14, 2021
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Thom Carroll/PhillyVoice
Fans will soon be returning to South Philly in full force.
The Phillies have had a solid but not spectacular start to their 2021 season. If only home games counted, then maybe spectacular might fit. Philadelphia entered Friday’s action in second place in the NL East at 20-18, trailing the Mets by 1.5 games.
There’s been one trend that’s very hard to miss with this Phillies team so far this year, and it’s their stark home/road splits. They’re an impressive 13-6 at Citizens Bank Park, but a pitiful 7-12 on the road. That 7-12 record is even after taking two of three in Washington in their most recent series.
So, what gives? Let’s dive in and try to figure it out...
For starters, this isn’t exactly some new phenomena. We saw a similar pattern last year, and the year before. In the abbreviated 2020 campaign, the Phillies were 19-13 at home but 9-19 on the road. If they had been just slightly more competent on the highway, they’d have made the playoffs.
In 2019, their last full season, the Phillies went 45-36 at home and 36-45 on the road. At this point, it’s a pretty large sample size, so it’s difficult to write it off as a fluke. It’s safe to say it’s a real thing, the only question is what’s causing it?
When taking a look at the splits, it becomes clear the lineup shouldn’t shoulder most of the blame here. The team has virtually identical batting averages at home and on the road (within .002), and only one more home run at home. The OPS is a bit lower away from home, but it’s nothing too significant.
The pitching splits, on the other hand, tell a different story. At home, the staff’s combined ERA is a very solid 3.56. On the road, it balloons out to 4.79. And opponent OPS goes from .671 to .786.
Somewhat surprisingly, it’s not really the bullpen’s fault either. Instead, almost the entire starting rotation is collapsing on the road.
Aaron Nola’s ERA is 1.40 in four starts at home. It’s 6.14 in four starts on the road. Zach Eflin’s ERA is 2.08 in four starts at home, and it’s 5.68 in four starts on the road. You get the idea. What’s concerning is this appears to be a legit pattern, at least for Nola.
Nola’s home/road ERAs in 2020 and 2019 were 2.50/4.26 and 2.91/5.19. This is the third year in a row Nola has been a dramatically different pitcher on the road. If the Phillies want to make a playoff run and serve as a potential MLB World Series pick, they’re going to need their ace to come through in some big games in opposing ballparks.
The question on all of our minds is how these trends can be put together to make some MLB best bets. It seems clear at this point that the pitching staff is much more comfortable at home than on the road.
As such, there should be value moving forward betting some overs when they’re on the road. Particularly when specific guys like Nola and Eflin are pitching. Oddsmakers aren’t accounting for what seems to be a very real drop-off in performance, and a tendency for higher scoring games on the road.
Conversely, the Phillies have been really good at home several years in a row now. If I were to make an MLB prediction, I’d be looking to back them on the money and run lines in certain spots at home moving forward. The team’s ceiling is really high when Nola or Eflin are pitching at home, so I’m going to be betting them on the run line for juicier odds when those guys are on the mound in South Philly.
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