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January 25, 2025

Can the Sixers keep Guerschon Yabusele long-term? We asked an NBA salary cap expert

How hard will it be for the Sixers to hold onto Guerschon Yabusele? What could he net the Sixers in a trade? An expert fills us in.

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Yabusele 1.18.25 Bill Streicher/Imagn Images

Will Guerschon Yabusele's time with the Sixers be short-lived?

There have been few genuine silver linings during an absolutely disastrous season for these Sixers. But one development has almost seemed too good to be true: Guerschon Yabusele, signed to a veteran's minimum contract in August as the last player the Sixers added to their NBA roster, has been a massive revelation.

Yabusele, 29, was supposed to be an X-Factor of sorts as the team tried to fill a hole at power forward. But with Joel Embiid rarely available this season, veteran backup center Andre Drummond missing extensive time and neither of those players performing up to their usual standards, Yabusele has spent the vast majority of his minutes this season at the five. He has been outstanding in that role, proving to be a legitimate floor spacer with high volume and efficiency from beyond the arc, unique off-the-dribble scoring chops against closeouts and just enough dirty work to be a passable defender and rebounder.

Suddenly, the Sixers have a high-quality rotation big on their hands. But will he be around for much longer?

Even before the Sixers' slide accelerated and the team pivoting to selling at the trade deadline became the likeliest outcome, there were concerns about the team's lack of resources to re-sign Yabusele at a price commensurate with the level of play he has provided. And with those limitations in mind, many have become resigned to the idea that the fan favorite will be traded before the NBA's Feb. 6 deadline.

In hopes of being able to put together an FAQ of sorts on all things related to Yabusele as a pending free agent and trade asset, earlier this week I talked to Yossi Gozlan, one of the most reliable NBA salary cap experts you will find.

I utilize Yossi's tracking of each team's salary cap standing on capsheets.com for my work every day. He also creates content about the NBA with a focus on salary cap analysis on his YouTube channel and "Third Apron" Substack, both of which I am happily subscribed to. With the deadline nearing, Yossi is as helpful of a Twitter follow as you can add over the next few weeks, too.

Breaking down all angles of the Sixers' decisions to come on Yabusele with the help of Yossi:


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Why and how are the Sixers limited in what they can pay Yabusele?

Because Yabusele will enter free agency having only spent one year with his team, he will be a Non-Bird free agent. That means whichever team he ends the season with will only be able to offer him up to 120 percent of his 2024-25 salary -- Yabusele is making the minimum of just under $2.1 million this season -- unless they use cap space or an available cap exceptions. That means if the Sixers wanted to re-sign Yabusele using his Non-Bird rights, they would only be able to offer him a hair over $2.5 million in salary for next season. That is not going to cut it.

With three max contracts on the books, the Sixers are not going to have cap space to use for the foreseeable future. In fact, the team only has five players with guaranteed salaries on the books for next season, and Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Caleb Martin and Jared McCain will on their own combine to earn more than the projected salary cap for next season by a few million dollars.

That means in order to pay Yabusele more than the $2.5 million which his Non-Bird status enables them to offer him, the Sixers would have to use an available cap exception. Some teams will enter the offseason armed with the largest version of the mid-level exception, which is projected to be worth in the ballpark of $14 million annually, as well as a smaller bi-annual exception. But because of their significant payroll, the Sixers will just have a smaller version of the MLE, the taxpayer's version. It can be given to one player, split up among multiple signings or go unused.

In order to maximize their chances of retaining Yabusele, the Sixers would likely offer him the full boat as far as the taxpayer's MLE is concerned. Here is Yossi's current projection for what such an all-in offer would be:

SeasonSalary
2025-26$5,685,000
2026-27$5,969,250
Total$11,654,250


A two-year deal with an average annual value of over $5.8 million is by no means a bad offer. Drummond, who entered free agency after solid years with the Chicago Bulls and has long held the reputation of a reliable, strong backup center, signed with the Sixers for two years at an average annual value of $5 million. But the Sixers could have greater competition in an attempt to re-sign Yabusele.

Will the Sixers' MLE be enough to keep Yabusele?

Many have operated under the assumption that two years and $11.6 million would be an insufficient offer for Yabusele, but Yossi is not sure that is the case.

"I think he's arguably worth at least the taxpayer's mid-level based on his play," he said. "But just the nature of how free agency has been, there's been very few elite players available, and very few competitive teams with cap space in the past few years that it's really hurt the market. We saw a lot of pretty decent role players get squeezed... You never know. Every year there are lots of guys you're surprised [did not get paid more]... It wouldn't shock me if [Yabu] just ends up getting around the minimum again."

One example of a role player -- one of a much greater stature -- whose market cratered: Martin, who was expected to earn in the ballpark of $15 million annually on a long-term deal when he entered last summer's free agency. Instead, his negotiations with the Miami Heat fell apart and money elsewhere dried up. That allowed the Sixers to swoop in and sign the veteran wing to a four-year deal worth just $35 million total (the deal has about $5 million worth of unlikely incentives).

Could Yabusele suffer the same fate? As Yossi pointed out, there are plenty of deals every summer which look like complete bargains for the teams involved. 

Is opening up the larger MLE a viable path?

Opening up the non-taxpayer's MLE, which hard caps a team at the first apron, would enable the Sixers to offer Yabusele up to four years and just over $60 million -- surely more than enough to retain his services. It is technically possible for the Sixers to shed just enough salary to open up the non-taxpayer's MLE, but the necessary order of operations includes gutting the team's depth in a fashion which would be counterproductive.

"You'd have to go pretty far shedding guys just so you can get below the first apron," Yossi said. "And that's just not really worth it."

Among the cap casualties would be Kelly Oubre Jr. and KJ Martin, with Caleb Martin likely being on the bubble. Whether or not the Sixers would have to dump Caleb Martin's salary may depend on whether or not they keep their first-round pick, which they will only end up owning if it falls in the top six -- therefore carrying a fairly significant cap hit.

What would the Sixers receive in a trade for Yabusele?

Because many of the financial constraints which apply to the Sixers apply to sone of the NBA's title contenders with significant payrolls, most trade deadline buyers who have interest in Yabusele would be trading for him as nothing more than a rental in terms of surefire availability. And Yabusele is a role player, likely a bench big, which also limits how much teams will be willing to trade for him.

Trading Yabusele for another player would be tricky, as the Sixers can only take back as much money as they send out in any deal, and Yabusele is on a minimum contract. The return in player form could not be someone making even one cent more than Yabusele this year, unless the Sixers aggregate Yabusele with one or two of his teammates. The much more likely framework of a Yabusele trade figures to be the 29-year-old being dealt in exchange for some sort of second-round draft pick compensation. The question then becomes, how many second-rounders and what caliber of second-rounders should be considered a good return for Yabusele?

"If you can get a distant second, I think that's good," Yossi said. "I think the more time you have on draft picks, it doesn't matter who the team is, you just have so much time to do something with it... I don't think [the Sixers will] have too much say on the type of second they get. Ultimately, it depends on the team. It's probably going to be a good team that wants him, and a lot of these good teams might not be flush with seconds."


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Can the Sixers trade Yabusele now and sign him again in the summer?

They absolutely can try. In fact, the Sixers' best realistic offer to Yabusele -- the two-year, $11.6 million deal with a second-year player option, the full taxpayer's MLE -- would still be on the table for him if he finishes the season elsewhere. Any form of the MLE can be offered to internal or external free agents.

But there are a few downsides that come with the trade-and-bring-back plan, aside from the fact that Yabusele cannot make some sort of simple commitment to return in the summer as he is traded in the winter.

The first one is that because Yabusele would have been traded and then joined a new team in free agency again, his Bird rights clock would restart. If Yabusele was traded this season, then re-signs for the aforementioned terms and chooses to decline his player option in the summer of 2026, he would once again be a Non-Bird free agent, only eligible to be offered a deal starting at 120 percent of his previous salary. That would land him at about $6.8 million for 2026-27 assuming he took the full tax MLE next season. That money is not bad, but it is a far lower figure than what he would be eligible for if he signed the same exact 1+1 deal in the upcoming offseason after sticking with the Sixers through the remainder of the season.

In that case, Yabusele would be an Early-Bird free agent if he opts out in 2026, making him eligible to be offered a deal starting at 175 percent of his previous year's salary. That would enable him to ink a deal starting at over $9.9 million in 2026-27 should he earn that sort of money with another stellar season.

All of this may seem a bit trivial, but it is the sort of factor an agent is responsible for weighing as they attempt to set a client up for a prosperous future. And Yabusele signing with the Sixers on what might be a below-market deal this summer carries more long-term risk if he is traded in the next few weeks.

Then there is the fact that if Yabusele is traded, he is far more likely to be part of a playoff run. As Yossi pointed out, tons of role players see their league-wide stock rise tremendously with a few notable performances in the playoffs.

"If [Yabusele ends up] going to the playoffs, then we could see how he does," Yossi said. "He can definitely raise his value if he's on a playoff team and he plays decent. A lot of players get a bump in value -- role players specifically will get a bump in value ahead of free agency -- if they're contributing and their team is advancing."

Yossi is optimistic that the taxpayer's MLE worth up to two years and $11.6 million will at least be a competitive offer from the Sixers for Yabusele. But giving him the opportunity to thrive in a playoff setting for another team could launch his reputation into a whole new stratosphere and render that offer insufficient.


MORE: Yabusele remembers NBA debut, "Confetti Game" in Philly


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