April 16, 2025
Patrick Gorski/Imagn Images
On May 12, the Sixers will either be rewarded with a top-six pick or leave the NBA Draft Lottery empty-handed.
Every day between the end of the Sixers' regular season and the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12, we will use Tankathon.com's famous simulation tool to run through the lottery 10 times. Over a 29-day period, we will collect a significant sample of possible outcomes and track those results as the Sixers wait to learn the fate of their own first-round pick.
The Sixers are entering the lottery with the fifth-best set of odds, but they will only keep their first-rounder if it falls in the top six slots due to an obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder from a trade made nearly five years ago.
Let's get to today's simulations:
The outcomes of today's batch of 10 simulations:
• Simulation No. 1: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 2: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 3: 5th pick
• Simulation No. 4: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 5: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 6: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 7: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 8: 6th pick
• Simulation No. 9: 7th pick
• Simulation No. 10: 7th pick
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The Sixers tempt fate in these simulations, failing to jump into the top four on any occasion but still keeping their pick six out of 10 times. Their best outcome in this batch is the first time, landing at No. 5 with nobody jumping into the top four.
Ironically, the Sixers have the fifth-best lottery odds but only a 2.2 percent chance of actually landing in that slot after the lottery takes place.
The Sixers lose their pick by falling to No. 7 four times in this collection of simulations. Check out who wins the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes in this one:
With Flagg, Amen Thompson and Ime Udoka, the Rockets would have a chance to be an elite defense every year for a decade-plus.
The cumulative results of this exercise so far:
| Draft Pick | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| 1 | 4 | 13.3% | 10.5% |
| 2 | 2 | 6.7% | 10.5% |
| 3 | 1 | 3.3% | 10.6% |
| 4 | 2 | 6.7% | 10.5% |
| 5 | 1 | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 8 | 26.7% | 19.6% |
| 7 | 10 | 33.3% | 26.7% |
| 8 | 2 | 6.7% | 8.7% |
| 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Keep or Lose Pick? | Simulation Outcomes | Simulation Outcome Percentage | Actual Percentage Odds |
| Kept Pick | 18 | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| Lost Pick | 12 | 40.0% | 36.0% |
MORE: Joel Embiid year-in-review
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