September 28, 2023
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
Even if a breakout Jalen Hurts performance doesn't happen Week 4 against the Commanders, the Eagles still have matchup advantages all over the field on both sides of the ball.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 4 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Lions (-1.5) at Packers: This is a great early season Thursday matchup between a couple of promising teams that I think most are still trying to get a handle on. The Packers remain really banged up, but they have played well enough to win games regardless, and their Week 3 comeback win over the Saints from a 17-0 fourth quarter deficit is the kind of game that can give a young team a lot of confidence.
I think the Lions are a slightly more talented team, and they have actually won three straight in this rivalry. Still, I'm buying Jordan Love, who has some accuracy issues to iron out but who also makes plays.
Falcons at Jaguars (-3), Wembley Stadium: Yes! I love an Eagles 1:00 p.m. start coupled with a 9:30 a.m. game played in Europe that I can watch casually in the press box leading up to kickoff.
The Jags have gotten out to a slow start, which I suppose they can afford in the crappy AFC South, but it's only a matter of time before Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence start figuring things out. I have no such confidence in Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder.
Commanders at Eagles (-8): Sam Howell has been sacked 19 times already this season. The next closest team has taken 13 sacks. That's especially concerning since two of the teams that Washington has faced were the Cardinals and Broncos, who are easily both "bottom quarter of the NFL" teams. It is imperative that they find some success on the ground to take pressure off of Howell and an offensive line that has below average starters at LG, C, and RT.
Unfortunately for the Commanders, the Eagles have been able to consistently eliminate the run and make their opponents one-dimensional, and Howell could have another long day, like he did Week 3 against the Bills.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles' smash-mouth run game has been utterly dominant, and while the passing attack isn't where it was in 2022 just yet, there have been improvements from Week 1 to Week 2 to Week 3. The Commanders' biggest strength — their talented foursome up front — should be neutralized by the Eagles' elite offensive line.
Dolphins at Bills (-3): The Bills had a really bad loss Week 1 to a Jets team that lost Aaron Rodgers on his fourth snap of the game, but they have looked like Super Bowl contenders in each of the last two weeks, blowing out a couple of bad teams in the Raiders and Commanders by a combined score of 75-13. The Dolphins, meanwhile, were the talk of the NFL Week 3 after their 70-point offensive explosion against the Broncos.
Josh Allen has won 9 of his last 10 against the Dolphins, including a playoff game last year. The Bills have averaged 34.3 points in those 10 games. I'm confident that the Dolphins can score points. I'm not confident that they can stop Allen and the Bills' offense.
Broncos (-3.5) at Bears: How bad are the Bears? Well, they're home dogs against a winless team that gave up 70 points last week. Legit lol at this:
#DaBears don't disappoint.
— The QB School (@theqbschool) September 27, 2023
I've never seen the yell at block before.
Full video for the QBSPC only.
Join: https://t.co/l0CJd0Ambj pic.twitter.com/YMtH4k8hRy
Bengals (-2) at Titans: I get that this is Myles Garrett below, who is in my opinion the best pass rusher in the NFL, but Andre Dillard just isn't a functional NFL starter. Watch this:
Good luck vs Myles Garrett pic.twitter.com/vbO2K45OMu
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) September 25, 2023
And this:
Myles Garrett again pic.twitter.com/moWlsOtTXy
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) September 25, 2023
And this:
This was over quickly. Myles Garrett went off yesterday. pic.twitter.com/M4Op3lfZOc
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) September 25, 2023
You can put me down for picks against the Titans for the foreseeable future, until Vegas realizes that they are a bottom five team that can't protect against good pass rushers, which the Bengals have. Dillard will have to face Trey Hendrickson, an underrated star DE.
Ravens at Browns (-2.5): Jim Schwartz is killing it in Cleveland, as the Browns' defense has allowed just one touchdown so far this season. If Deshaun Watson and the Browns' offense can simply not give games away like they did against the Steelers Week 2, this defense can win on its own.
Rams at Colts (-1): The Rams are out to a 1-2 start, but they have played three teams that went to the playoffs last season, and they have a positive point differential. They still have a very good quarterback in Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald remains a game wrecker. Meanwhile, the Colts are 2-1 start under Shane Steichen, who has brought competency back to Indy. This is a fun matchup between two preseason afterthoughts who have played better than expected.
Give me the Colts, whose defensive line is playing really well, against an atrocious Rams offensive line.
Buccaneers at Saints (-3): If Derek Carr can't go, we'll get a battle between a pair of No. 1 overall pick busts in Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston. This is very much a "Someone has to win this crappy division" game. Give me the Bucs, I guess, with no confidence whatsoever.
Vikings (-3.5) at Panthers: There are high stakes in this game, as we're going to eulogize the loser in our weekly NFC Hierarchy/Obituary column.
Steelers (-3) at Texans: Of the starting rookie quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud has looked the best so far, as shown here:
T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith scare me, but the Texans might not be bad. I'm getting in early on them.
Raiders at Chargers (-5.5): With 3:11 left in the game and an 8-point deficit, Josh McDaniels and the Raiders faced a 4th and 5 from the Steelers' 29 yard line. They kicked a field goal, lol. In other words, they needed a touchdown, and after kicking the FG, they, you know, still needed a touchdown.
BUT... the Steelers were called for leverage on the play, giving the Raiders a first down.
A few plays later, this time with 2:22 left in the game and facing a 4th and 4 from the Steelers' 8 (!) yard line, McDaniels kicked a field goal again. LOLOLOL. I'm sure that there were 6-year-olds watching this game at home who were like, "WTF is this clown doing?" Anyway, the Raiders would eventually get the ball back again... at their own 15 with 7 seconds left. When asked why he kicked the field goal, McDaniels said this:
"We needed multiple possessions." #Raiders coach Josh McDaniels, on why he kicked the FG down 8 points. pic.twitter.com/rIvIWlYQyu
— Paul Gutierrez (@PGutierrezESPN) September 25, 2023
It's not often that the Chargers will have a coaching advantage over their opponent, but this is one such occasion.
Patri*ts at Cowboys (-7): The Cowboys may very well have the best defense in the NFL, but it's not without its concerns, particularly against the run.
Offensively, there are concerns galore:
• The offensive line is banged up.
• Tony Pollard leads the league in touches. That's not ideal for December and January.
• The passing game is far too reliant on one player (CeeDee Lamb).
• Dak Prescott is no longer a dual threat. He has no interest in running with the football anymore.
I mean, you tell me the solution here. There is probably only one. If they can't see it, we are doomed. pic.twitter.com/9YbpZNNjTf
— Bob Sturm (@SportsSturm) September 26, 2023
Cardinals at 49ers (-14): Next.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Jets: In Week 3, for some reason someone thought Steelers-Raiders was an appealing Sunday Night Football matchup. This one at least made sense before the season began, since it was Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers, but, yuck, we get two bad SNF games in a row. Hang on, let me see what the Week 5 matchup is... Oh, good. It's Cowboys-49ers.
Seahawks at Giants (-1.5): The Seahawks are a better football team than the Giants. Like, significantly better. And I get points, too? Uhhh, OK, thanks.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 355-299-15 (0.542)
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