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October 18, 2018

Week 7 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Broncos (-2.5) at Cardinals: Ew. What an awful Thursday night game that wouldn't have been appealing before the season began, and is even less appealing now. To note, if you say, "But now Josh Rosen is the QB instead of Sleeves, thus making it more appealing," I'll remind you that watching Sleeves is awesome, as long as he's not the QB for your team.


Titans at Chargers (-6.5): The Titans stink. They're scoring 14.5 points per game, and they have five offensive touchdowns all season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are beginning to roll after winning three straight.

On a side note, the Chargers don't play a team that presently has a winning record until December. 


Browns at Buccaneers (-3): The Browns have lost 23 consecutive road games, dating back to 2015. This season they're 0-2 on the road. They lost one close road game to the Saints Week 2, so we'll give them a golf clap on that, I guess. The other road game was a loss to the hapless Raiders. I'm going to go with the "I need to see it before I pick it" philosophy here.


Panthers at Eagles (-4): The Eagles' biggest weakness (giving up the deep ball) mirrors the Panthers' biggest deficiency, as they have just one pass play of 40-plus yards on the season. Additionally, while they've gotten better play than expected from their reserves, the Panthers are still missing both of their starting offensive tackles. That should be a decided advantage for the Eagles' pass rush.

Meanwhile, in the secondary, the Panthers are starting a pair of young corners (James Bradberry and Donte Jackson), a 37-year-old safety (Mike Adams), and a linebacker playing safety (Eric Reid). The Eagles should be able to get their passing attack going against a middle-of-the-road defense that tends to get overrated because they've been good over the last half-decade.


Vikings (-3) at Jets: I was really tempted to take the Jets here, and I think it's close to a 50-50 shot that they win this game, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. One of the fan factoids about this game is that the Jets went hard after "Kurt" Cousins this offseason, but he picked the Vikings. The Jets are so much better off the way things played out.


Lions (-3) at Dolphins: I'm not even using reason here. It's Brocktoberfest, dammit.


Patriots (-3) at Bears: The Pats are only three points faves over the Bears? I'll gladly lay the three.


Bills at Colts (-7.5): Um, the Colts, I guess. Does it matter?


Texans at Jaguars (-4.5): Maybe the Jaguars aren't that good? In the last two games, they've been outscored 70-21. They should still be good enough to win their God-awful division though.


Saints at Ravens (-2.5): The Ravens may have the best defense in the league, but it's not like it's some kind of juggernaut. The Saints are going to score on them. Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense is only good when the defense puts it in positions to succeed. I'll take the Saints plus points all day.


Cowboys at WASTEAM (-1.5): The Cowboys have a five-game winning streak over WASTEAM in Landover. Is that over-simplistic thinking? Sure, maybe, but that logic worked for me last week when I took the Steelers in Cincy, so I'm sticking to it.


Rams (-10) at 49ers: Next.


Bengals at Chiefs (-6): In four of Andy Reid's five full seasons in KC, the Chiefs have had both a three-game winning streak and a three-game losing streak in the same season. After being dealt their first loss to the Pats, the fear of a slide is justified, but I don't see it. Even on a night in which Patrick Mahomes didn't have his "A game," the Chiefs put up 40 points. They'll be fine. 


Giants at Falcons (-6): On the latest episode of "As the Giants Turn," the owner told the star wide receiver through the media to shut up.

Byes: Packers, Raiders, Steelers, Seahawks.

• Picks against the spread: Jets (+3), Patriots (-3), Saints (+2.5), Cowboys (+1.5).

• Eagles picks: 3-3

• 2018 season, straight up 52-39-2 (0.570)
• 2018 season, ATS: 15-12-1 (.536)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

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