October 11, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
(Games 261 & 262 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Vikings minus-3/Total: 44
What is the line telling you: This line opened up Minnesota minus-3 over Philadelphia with the total set at 44 and hasn’t moved much. The side has been slightly juiced, so if you're looking to bet the home team Vikings, you'll have to lay 3 minus-120 at most sports books.
Both teams find themselves with the same 3-2 record with huge divisional games coming up next week. October is going to be a real tough month for the Eagles. They travel to Dallas next, then end up in Buffalo, where it won't be easy to win.
They have to steal this game at U.S. Bank Stadium or else they could be in serious trouble. This game in my opinion is a coin flip, even though the Vikings have fallen flat both times they stepped up in competition vs. the Packers and Bears this year.
What’s scary in backing Philly is the fact that on offense, Minnesota ranks 20 spots higher in yards-per-play, 16 spots better in yard-per-pass, and the Vikings are ranked third in the NFL in yards-per-rush-attempt, while the Eagles come in 23rd in the league in that metric. And, Minnesota has played the slightly better defensive opponents.
On defense, the Vikings are ranked 4th in the NFL in defensive efficiency, two spots better than the Eagles, and are top 10 in adjusted sack rate with 15 sacks on the year. Minnesota also ranks No. 3 in the NFL in the opponent yards-per-play, while the Eagles don't break the top 10, and give up 1.7 yards more on the road this year than they do at the Linc.
Bottom line: Hate to say it, but the right side here is the Vikings minus-3.
(Games 255 & 256 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Seahawks minus-1.5/Total: 46
What is the line telling you: This line opened up offshore with the Browns being a small home favorite, but since then the price has flipped and the Seahawks are now 1.5 or 2 point road favorites. The total on the game has seen no movement in the market and is sitting patiently painted 46 everywhere across your sports betting screen. Seattle has looked great this year at 4-1, beating a bad Bengals team, a Steelers team without Big Ben Roethlisberger, losing to the Saints, then coming back and beat the Cards and Rams. The only problem is they've played three teams who are in the basement in the opponent-yards-per-play metric.
Now, they have to play the Browns, who rank higher in defensive efficiency than anyone they've played all year except the Steelers, a team the Seahawks beat by two points vs. a back- up quarterback. Seattle was losing, 10-7, at the half before Big Ben went out.
The Browns, on the other hand, have had to face three opponent defenses who rank in the top 10 in opponent yards-per-play and are in a real compromising position with the Patriots up next week.
Bottom line: We’re banking on Baker Mayfield shredding Seattle’s pass defense, which ranks 26th in the NFL in opponent-passing-yards-per game, a huge bounce back game for the Browns here. We love the Browns in this spot, but we’re patiently hoping the public continues to pound the Seahawks. As of right now eight out of every 10 tickets placed offshore and in Vegas have been on Russell Wilson's team. We’re hoping this game eventually gets to three, so we can bet the Browns at plus-3 points and on the money line.
The Line: Jaguars minus-1.5/Total: 43.5
What is the line telling you: This line opened up with Jacksonville being 2.5-point home favorites with the combined total set at 43.5. We immediately saw an influx of money attack the screen at some of the sharper offshore betting houses on the 4-1 New Orleans Saints, which forced oddsmakers to adjust their price to as low as a pick'em, before shooting back up to where it's been stabilized with the home team Jags being a 1/1.5-point favorites, depending on where you shop.
Our guys we spoke to behind the counter offshore/Vegas, and in Atlantic City are all telling us the same thing. They're writing four tickets on the Saints for every one ticket being wagered on the Jags so far.
There's a ton of recreational money all over the Saints.
Joe Bookmaker is begging for Saints money by making the red hot 4-1 team an underdog in this spot.
When we broke down both teams the reality is Jacksonville’s offense efficiency numbers are much better than New Orleans. The Jags rank higher in every metric that counts while playing the better opposing defenses.
The Jags are back home after two games on the road. They’re the hungrier team. Jalen Ramsey is supposed to play. It’s a great spot for the Jags here to steal a win with the Saints coming off a divisional game, then headed out to Chicago next week against arguably the best defense in football.
Bottom line: Lay the money line on the Jags or the minus-1.
The Philly Godfather is 12-3 over the last three weeks.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
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