December 20, 2024
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
Saquon Barkley popped two long runs against the Commanders Week 11.
In Week 16, the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles will have a chance to clinch the NFC East with a win or tie over the 9-5 Washington Commanders. Here are our five things to watch.
In Week 1 this season, the Commanders' top three cornerbacks, at least by snap counts, were rookie Mike Sainristil, Benjamin St-Juste, and Emmanuel Forbes.
Since then, Forbes got cut, St-Juste got benched, and the Commanders added Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline.
The Commanders' top three corners are now Lattimore and Sainristil, with Noah Igbinoghene in the slot. Lattimore faced the Eagles this season when he was still with the Saints, but a hamstring injury kept him out of the Birds' first matchup against the Commanders.
Lattimore has had his moments against the Eagles in the past, most notably when he picked off a pass that went through the hands of Alshon Jeffrey in the 2018 season divisional round.
MARSHON LATTIMORE.
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2019
His second INT of the game is CLUTCH. #HomeInTheDome #NFLPlayoffs
📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX pic.twitter.com/PLep2Wntts
Gardner Minshew throws a pick six intended for AJ Brown
— DIE-HARD 🦅 REALTOR® (@Eaglesfans9) January 1, 2023
Marshon Lattimore with the interception.
Brown ran an awful route, Minshew should’ve never thrown this ball. Bad decision, obviously. pic.twitter.com/VTBvYwnFqS
On the other side, as noted above, is the rookie, Sainristil, who was one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 draft. Sainristil played wide receiver his first three years at Michigan, catching 37 passes for 539 yards (14.6 YPC) and 5 TDs, before moving to defense for his last two years, mostly playing slot corner. He's tough and physical.
In his rookie season, Sainristil has had to play outside, out of necessity. Sainristil fights and he has had a good rookie season, but he's also a 5'10, 182-pound corner playing out of position.
Jalen Hurts should be cautious testing Lattimore.
At the time the Eagles faced the Commanders Week 11, Washington's defense was ranked 25th in defensive DVOA (20th pass, 24th run). And, well, they're still 25th, but they moved down the rankings both against the pass and the run (24th pass, 26th run). It could be argued that their pass defense is better now that Lattimore is finally playing, but their run defense is still an issue. Here are their run defense ranks:
| Commanders run D | Stat | Rank |
| Rush yards allowed per game | 132.1 | 25 |
| Rushing first downs allowed per game | 7.1 | 19 |
| Rushing yards per attempt | 4.8 | 28 |
| Rushes of 20+ yards allowed | 12 | T-26 |
In Week 11, the Commanders did a nice job keeping Saquon Barkley in check for most of the night, and then... bang... two touchdown runs in under 30 seconds. TD run No. 1:
Great blocks by Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton on that run. On the first play of the Commanders' ensuing possession, Reed Blankenship picked off Jayden Daniels. Two plays later, Barkley struck again with a 39-yard TD run:
Watch Cam Jurgens on that play. He tosses a DB like a rag doll, and when the DB gets up to try to chase Barkley, Jurgens dumps him to the ground again.
I would imagine the Eagles' game plan will center around the run game, and the Commanders' defensive game plan will center around stopping it.
The Commanders have the No. 3 rushing offense in the NFL, in terms of rushing yards per game:
What do those three teams have in common? Oh hey, they employ the top three rushing quarterbacks in the NFL.
In Week 11, the Eagles held Daniels to 18 yards on 7 carries, though it's worth noting that Daniels probably wasn't 100 percent as he had recently suffered a rib injury.
"We need to do what we do best and continue to do that," Vic Fangio said on Tuesday, when asked if his defense needs to change things up to confuse Daniels. "Obviously, you could play them a little bit different here and there. If you overdo that, then you're putting your players in uncomfortable positions."
The Eagles could have extra motivation to stop the run this week, after starting running back Brian Robinson said that the Commanders have the better team.
As always, Terry McLaurin is the Commanders' most dangerous and productive receiver, by far.
| Commanders receiving | Rec | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Terry McLaurin | 68 | 969 | 14.3 | 11 |
| Zach Ertz | 54 | 526 | 9.7 | 4 |
| Noah Brown | 35 | 453 | 12.9 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 33 | 346 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 30 | 300 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 23 | 236 | 10.3 | 1 |
We say this in every Eagles-Commanders preview, but it's especially true this week... See No. 17 to the right? He's waving at you. COVER THAT GUY, and make anyone else beat you.
In years past, the Commanders lined McLaurin up all over the place, trying to get him matched up against a weak link in the Eagles' secondary, oftentimes against their slot corners. This season, the Eagles don't have as obvious a weak spot in their secondary, as rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been major upgrades over James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox.
McLaurin had 1 catch on just two targets for 10 yards Week 11. There's little question that the Commanders will look to get him far more involved this time around.
The Commanders' offensive line is healthy, and looks like this:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Brandon Coleman | Nick Allegretti | Tyler Biadasz | Sam Cosmi | Andrew Wylie |
In Week 11, the Commanders couldn't block Jalen Carter, via PhillyPMC:
There should also be opportunities against Brandon Coleman, a third-round rookie who gave up sacks to Nolan Smith and Josh Sweat Week 11. Smith's sack:
Aaaand Sweat's sack:
FeastinMeter™️: 6/10 turkey legs 🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗
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