August 27, 2023
Over the last few days, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants traded for players who were once top 10 picks in the NFL draft. So, you know, let's take a look at both trades.
This trade involved the Eagles' biggest rival in the Cowboys as well as their biggest current non-NFC East rival in the 49ers.
The Niners originally held the No. 12 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but they traded up to pick No. 3 with the Dolphins to select Lance. The cost:
| Niners got | Dolphins got |
| No. 3 overall pick in 2021 (Lance) | No. 12 overall pick in 2021 |
| First-round pick in 2022 | |
| Third-round pick in 2022 | |
| First-round pick in 2023 |
| Draft slot | Team | Player |
| 1 | Jaguars | QB Trevor Lawrence |
| 2 | Jets | QB Zach Wilson |
| 3 | 49ers | QB Trey Lance |
| 4 | Falcons | TE Kyle Pitts |
| 5 | Bengals | WR Ja'Marr Chase |
| 6 | Dolphins | WR Jaylen Waddle |
| 7 | Lions | OT Penei Sewell |
| 8 | Panthers | CB Jaycee Horn |
| 9 | Broncos | CB Patrick Surtain |
| 10 | Eagles | WR DeVonta Smith |
| 11 | Bears | QB Justin Fields |
| 12 | Cowboys | LB Micah Parsons |
Lance played sparingly as a rookie as a backup to Jimmy Garoppolo, but began the 2022 season as the starting quarterback. In Week 2, he dislocated his ankle, ending his season. Following training camp in 2023, Lance found himself third on the depth chart behind the literal last pick of the 2022 draft in Brock Purdy, and another former third overall bust in Sam Darnold.
The Niners put a for sale sign on Lance's services, and the best offer they received in return was the fourth-round pick from the Cowboys.
The Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens are two teams that had conversations with San Francisco about a possible trade for Trey Lance.
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) August 26, 2023
In the NFC, the Detroit Lions also showed interest, per sources.
Most of the early discussions about a trade involved a 6th rounder that…
This trade cements Lance as one of the worst draft picks ever, given the cost to acquire him vs. the number of games he actually appeared in.
Trey Lance played a total of 8 games with the 49ers.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 25, 2023
That is the fewest games played by a top 5 pick with the team he debuted with since the start of the common draft era in 1967.
Whiffing on first-round picks is nothing new for John Lynch, by the way. Here's the Niners' first-round draft history since Lynch became their GM in 2017:
| Year | Draft slot | Player | Still with team? |
| 2017 | 3 | Solomon Thomas | No |
| 2017 | 31 | Reuben Foster | No |
| 2018 | 9 | Mike McGlinchey | No |
| 2019 | 2 | Nick Bosa | Yes |
| 2020 | 14 | Javon Kinlaw | Yes |
| 2020 | 25 | Brandon Aiyuk | Yes |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance | No |
| 2022 | NO PICK | ||
| 2023 | NO PICK |
Lynch is batting 0.333 on top 3 picks.
The pain of the Lance pick will still be felt for a while on the 49ers' financials, as he'll count for $8.4 million in dead money in 2023 and $5.5 million in 2024:
If the 49ers do trade Trey Lance, they'll only save $940,000 for 2023, due to him already being paid a $2,820,478 training camp roster bonus, and would save $5,310,717 in 2024, while having dead money hits of $8,361,434 in 2023, and $5,540,956 in 2024.
— Jason Hurley/SF=$10,051,833 MIN=$10,314,472 (@49erscap) August 23, 2023
For all their troubles, all the Niners got in return for Lance was a measly fourth-round pick, and they were evidently surprised to even get that.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan on trading QB Trey Lance to the Cowboys: "He told us that he would like another opportunity to go somewhere where he had the chance to be the (No. 2 QB). There were a number of teams involved. To end up getting the (fourth-round pick) was a little better…
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) August 26, 2023
In summary, LOL 49ers.
From the "Was this a good deal for the Cowboys?" perspective, Lance should be an immediate upgrade over current backup Cooper Rush, who went 4-1 as a starter last season but if you watched him play you could pretty easily see that he wasn't good. The cost of a fourth-round pick isn't that crazy, and Lance will be cheap, as he'll count for $940,000 on the Cowboys' cap in 2023 and $5,310,717 in 2024. Those are very reasonable numbers for a backup that has the physical traits that Lance possesses. Of course, the Niners must really think Lance stinks to trade him to a team they have faced in the playoffs each of the last two seasons.
Still, perhaps Lance can flourish in a less complicated offense. In San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan is often praised for his "genius" scheme. Of course, that scheme is difficult to learn and doesn't fit the skill sets of some quarterbacks, much less one that had just 318 career pass attempts in college and 102 in the pros. So maybe it's just not the genius scheme everyone says it is?
There will be questions as to what this move means for Dak Prescott. My take: Not much. He's the starter, and he's under pressure to perform after leading the NFL in INTs a season ago. If he doesn't play well in 2023, his future as the Cowboys' quarterback will be in question, whether the Cowboys traded for Lance or not.
Simmons was selected eighth overall by the Cardinals in the 2020 draft, mainly because of his blend of size and elite athleticism.
However, Simmons was not instinctive, and struggled both in run support and in coverage. He was occasionally effective as a blitzer, and had four sacks in 2022, shown here:
Isaiah Simmons’ 4 sacks in 2022 pic.twitter.com/QqimAu5WOM
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) August 24, 2023
With the Giants, the blitz-happy Wink Martindale will theoretically have a chance to put Simmons in a better position to succeed than the Cardinals did, and certainly the cost of a seventh-round pick is a pittance.
One notion that I will quibble with a bit is that it is considered a "low risk, high reward" move. If this were a move made prior to camp, then yes, I would agree. The Giants would have plenty of time to get a look at him, determine if he is worth a role in their defense, and what exactly that role would be. However, with this trade occurring right up against the start of the season, the Giants won't have a lot of time to get a player lacking awareness traits up to speed. And he's likely to play. The risk isn't what it cost to get him. The risk is in playing an unready player and having him cost you a game.
Overall though, this does feel like a low-cost move that the Giants can feel pretty good about.
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