November 11, 2025
Jeff Hanisch/Imagn Images
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles slide a bit this week, despite winning their third straight game.
Week 10 is in the books, and in my opinion the top four teams in the NFL — the Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, and Lions — are all in the NFC. We have one new obituary this week, the perpetually stuck in purgatory Atlanta Falcons.
Despite playing in the consistently bad NFC South, the Falcons haven't had a winning season since 2017.
• 2018: 7-9
• 2019: 7-9
• 2020: 4-12
• 2021: 7-10
• 2022: 7-10
• 2023: 7-10
• 2024: 8-9
After a four-game losing streak, the Falcons are now 3-6, and heading toward an eighth consecutive losing season.
The Falcons' roster heading into the draft didn't look all that much different than what it has typically looked like in recent seasons, other than Michael Penix being poised to start during the 2025 season. There really shouldn't have been reason for grand optimism that they were suddenly a Super Bowl contender. And yet, during the draft, they made one of the most asinine "all in" types of trades in recent memory.
They traded their second-round pick (46th overall), their first-round pick in 2026, and a seventh-round pick in 2025 to the Rams for the 26th overall pick, and a third-round comp pick (101st overall) in 2025. The 26th overall pick became James Pearce, who has 9 tackles and 1.5 sacks.
If the season ended today (it doesn't) the 2026 pick the Falcons traded to the Rams would be 10th overall.
Just for funsies let's say that the season ended today. Let's calculate the value of all the traded picks, via the draft value chart:
| Falcons got | Falcons gave up |
| 26th overall pick (700) | 10th overall pick in 2026 (1300) |
| 101st overall pick in 2025 (96) | 46th overall pick in 2025 (440) |
| 242nd overall pick (1) | |
| TOTAL: 796 | TOTAL: 1741 |
If we're ignoring that some people significantly discount the value of future picks (which is dumb, in my opinion), the Falcons would be behind by 945 draft points, or the equivalent of the 17th overall pick.
The only way that trade is remotely justifiable is if you're pretty certain you're going to be in the playoffs that season. The Falcons had no reason to think that.
One of the cardinal sins of NFL front offices is being delusional about the talent on their own roster. Every team does it, but some to way worse degrees than the others. The Falcons win this year's Most Delusional Franchise award, barely edging out the Commanders, who at least had some success to point to last year. They're dead, and their fans don't even have mock drafts to look forward to this offseason.
11) Cowboys (3-5-1): The Cowboys made a blockbuster trade at the deadline. The deets:
| Cowboys got | Jets got |
| DT Quinnen Williams | 2027 first-round pick |
| 2026 second-round pick | |
| DT Mazi Smith |
The Cowboys had two first-round picks in 2027 as a result of the Micah Parsons trade they made before the start of the season -- their own and the Packers' first-round pick. The Jets will get whichever of those two picks is better.
Williams had a monster season in 2022, when he was a First-Team All-Pro, with 12 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 4 batted passes, and 28 QB hits. He also had a couple of Pro Bowl seasons in 2023 (5.5 sacks) and 2024 (6 sacks), but was not the beast that he was in 2022. In 2025, Williams has 32 tackles and just 1 sack, though he does have 3 forced fumbles. He is in his seventh season and will turn 28 in December. He is scheduled to make $21,750,000 on the cap in 2026 and $25,500,000 in 2027.
Williams is a very good player, but at this stage of his career he is not worth first- and second-round picks, in my opinion.
If you mash the Parsons and Williams trades together, it looks like this:
| Cowboys get | Cowboys give up |
| DT Quinnen Williams | EDGE Micah Parsons |
| DT Kenny Clark | DT Mazi Smith |
| 2026 first-round pick (from GB) | 2026 second-round pick (their own) |
| 2027 first-round pick (DAL or GB, whichever is worse) | 2027 first-round pick (DAL or GB whichever is better) |
OK, now, try to stay with me here...
Let's first compare the incoming 2026 first-round pick from Green Bay with the outgoing 2026 Cowboys second-round pick going to the Jets. Inpredictable has the Packers as 83.2% likely to make the playoff this season. If they do, their first-round pick will be no better than 19th overall. Inpredictable has the Cowboys at 7.8% likely to make the playoffs. If they don't, the outgoing 2026 second-round pick will be no worse than 52nd overall. If the season ended today, it would be 45th.
In other words, the Cowboys would likely jump from the early-to-middle of the second round to the mid-to-late first round. The difference in draft value points from 45th (450), for example, to 19th (875), is a gain of 425 points.
Now, let's compare the 2027 first-round picks. The Cowboys will keep whichever pick is worse. If they are bad again in 2026 — and they probably will be because they just don't have a very good roster — they'll likely keep the Packers pick, and their own pick will go to the Jets. Let's say, for example, the Cowboys pick lands at 10th overall, and the Packers pick lands at, say, 20th. The difference in draft value points between the 10th pick (1300) and the 20th pick (850) would be a loss of 450 points.
There's a reasonable enough chance that the Cowboys will have traded one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Parsons for a couple of aging DTs and a net loss in draft pick value. It'll be fun to see how the draft pick values play out.
Last week: 11:
10) Panthers (5-5): I hope you all heeded my warning not to take the Panthers in your survivor pools.
Last week: 10
9) Vikings (4-5): The Vikings had 8 (!!!) false starts on Sunday against the Ravens. At home! They were unable to get another first down or touchdown on drives after five of those eight false starts. You're just not going to win games when you play like that.
Last week: 8
8) 49ers (6-4): Above we noted that the Falcons win this year's Most Delusional Franchise award. Conversely, I do have to give the 49ers some credit for not making any deals at the trade deadline, despite pressure from their media and fans. They have no chance this season with all their injuries, and they know it.
Last week: 7
7) Bears (6-3): The Bears have given up 495 yards to the Bengals and 431 yards to the Giants in consecutive weeks, and they have still come away with wins. It's hard to take them seriously, but at least they have entertaining games for the first time in a long time.
It should be noted that they have won six of seven games, though those games have been against teams with a combined record of 19-46-1 (0.295).
Their next two opponents (at Vikings, Steelers) ramp up in difficulty slightly, and then it gets real in their two games thereafter (at Eagles, at Packers).
Last week: 9
6) Packers (5-3-1): Matt LaFleur has a great career record, at 72-36-1 (0.665), but if you watched Monday night, you'd think he were some high school coach the Packers pulled in off the street. He punted from the Eagles' 40 (lol), he kept trying to run the ball over and over despite the Eagles consistently putting the Packers in 3rd and long situations as a result, and by the end of the game the Eagles' defensive players were calling out the Packers' plays.
If the Packers had just a reasonably normal coaching performance, they probably win that game.
Last week: 6
5) Buccaneers (6-3): The Buccaneers' defense looked slooooowwww on Sunday. For example, here:
And here:
And here:
They have now given up nine plays of 40+ yards this season. Their six pass plays of 40+ yards allowed and their three run plays of 40+ yards allowed are both fourth-worst in the NFL.
Last week: 2
4) Lions (6-3): The Lions did whatever they wanted to the Commanders' defense on Sunday. They had 30 first downs and 546 yards.
But it was the offensive line who just obliterated the Commanders upfront. Watch Frankie Luvu wanting no part of Penei Sewell on this long Gibbs run:
That looked a little like the second half of the NFC Championship Game last year:
Luvu probably should have just accepted his suspension.
Last week: 5
3) Eagles (7-2): The Eagles beat a good team on the road, their third straight win, retaining their spot as the 1 seed in the NFC if the season ended today (it doesn't). They're also the reigning champs, proven winners in the playoffs, and loaded with star players. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Eagles can represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.
And yet, we're moving them down two spots behind the Seahawks and Rams, who both just look better at the moment. Like, that's kind of inarguable, right? Right now, those teams are more complete? Yeah? We can admit that, right? OK, cool, moving on...
2) Seahawks (7-2): Remember in 2017 when the Eagles kind of came from out of nowhere and were just blowing teams out every week in the middle of the season?
• Week 8, 49ers: 33-10
• Week 9, Broncos: 51-23
• Week 11, Cowboys (after a bye): 37-9
• Week 12, Bears: 31-3
If you'll recall, the national media types were pointing out that their opponents weren't great, to which Eagles fans countered that they could only play who was on their schedule, and they were destroying.
Well, the Seahawks remind me a little of that at the moment, as they are smacking bad teams around convincingly.
HUGE game next week: Seahawks at Rams.
Last week: 4
1) Rams (7-2): Matthew Stafford's last 6 games: 145 of 215 (67.4%) for 1688 yards (281.3 per game), 20 TDs, 0 INTs.
He is on an absolute heater, and the Rams' defense is also playing well. The Rams feel like a team that is beginning to separate from some of the other top contenders in the NFC.
Last week: 3
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