December 16, 2025
Robert Deutsch/Imagn Images
Jerry Jones points to an aging DT that he must have for the highest price possible.
Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books, are there was a lot of injury carnage over the weekend. But before we get to the Hierarchy, we have one new obituary, the Dallas Cowboys.
It has been amusing watching nationally televised Cowboys games the last few weeks, with color analysts like Tony Romo and Kirk Herbstreit warning how the Cowboys have a great chance of "winning out" or "running the table" and putting severe pressure on the Eagles for an NFC East title. At least Romo did it while the Cowboys were hot, while Herbstreit kept repeating it over and over while Dallas couldn't do anything to stop the Lions' offense Week 14.
When this team goes on short winning streaks, it's amazing how quickly people will buy them as contenders, only to watch as they fall right back into mediocrity when the games really start to matter. And sure enough, that's what happened in 2025, as always. After three straight wins over the Raiders, Eagles , and Chiefs — combined record of 17-25, by the way — the Cowboys then lost consecutive games to the Lions and the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings.
The Cowboys are technically still alive mathematically, but they would need to "win out" and hope the Eagles lose their final three games, two of which are against the 4-10 Commanders.
Let's take a moment to look back at the three major trades the Cowboys made this year:
This trade was looking like a home run for a while, but now it has the potential to be a disaster. Pickens currently ranks third in the NFL with 1,212 receiving yards. He will very likely make his first Pro Bowl. However, in their Week 14 loss to the Lions, the Cowboys needed Pickens to be the guy after CeeDee Lamb had to leave with a concussion. And how did he respond? He ran lazy routes, and just generally looked disinterested. He was called out for his poor effort both nationally and locally. And then in Week 15, he kind of no-showed again, making 3 catches on 6 targets for 33 yards.
Pickens is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason. Will the Cowboys pay him the going rate of like $30 million per season? Or maybe franchise tag him? If they pay him, they have to be concerned that his effort will be even worse once he banks a huge contract. The other alternative is to just lose him for nothing (maybe get a comp pick?) if he bolts in free agency.
Parsons had an elite-level season with the Packers, collecting 12.5 sacks, 26 QB hits, and a couple of forced fumbles before tearing his ACL. The Cowboys' defense sucked for the better part of the 2025 season, allowing a league-worst passer rating of 109.1. For context, Patrick Mahomes' career passer rating is 100.8.
If they had Parsons, they unquestionably would have been a better defense this season, and would probably still be legitimately alive in the NFC playoff hunt.
Now, some might say, "Well, that trade worked out for the Cowboys because Parsons tore his ACL," which of course is silly seeing as we don't know how his health would have played out in Dallas.
Before this trade, the Cowboys had two first-round picks — their own, and from the Packers stemming from the Parsons trade. The Jets will get whichever first-round pick is better, lol.
This trade made the Cowboys better in the short-term, as Williams had 1.5 sacks against the Raiders in his Cowboys debut. He has 1 tackle for loss and 0 sacks in the four games since.
Williams is a very good player, especially against the run, but at this stage of his career he was not worth first- and second-round picks. He is in his seventh season and will turn 28 in four days. He is also scheduled to make $21,750,000 on the cap in 2026 and $25,500,000 in 2027.
The Cowboys paid a premium to get him at the trade deadline during a season in which they were not realistic Super Bowl contenders. They probably could have just as easily signed a run stuffer for less money in free agency and kept their super valuable picks.
If you mash the Parsons and Williams trades together, it looks like this:
| Cowboys get | Cowboys give up |
| DT Quinnen Williams | EDGE Micah Parsons |
| DT Kenny Clark | DT Mazi Smith |
| 2026 first-round pick (from GB) | 2026 second-round pick (their own) |
| 2027 first-round pick (DAL or GB, whichever is worse) | 2027 first-round pick (DAL or GB whichever is better) |
That first-round pick from Green Bay will likely be in the 20's. If the season ended today, the 2026 second-round pick the Cowboys traded to the Jets would be 46th overall. By the draft value chart, the Cowboys will gain around 300 points in draft capital.
The difference in draft capital between the two 2027 first round picks — their own and the Packers — could very well be more than 300 points, since the Packers are likely to be good again in 2026, and the Cowboys... aren't.
In other words, there's a reasonable enough chance that the Cowboys will have traded one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Parsons for a couple of aging DTs and a net loss in draft pick value.
The rest of the NFL hopes Jerry Jones lives forever.
9) Buccaneers (7-7): At one point this season the Bucs were 6-2 and Baker Mayfield was (rightfully) getting some MVP buzz. They have since lost five of their last six games, and two straight... at home to the Saints and Falcons. 🤢
And yet, they still lead the atrocious NFC South.
| NFC South | Record | Point differential |
| Buccaneers | 7-7 | -27 |
| Panthers | 7-7 | -53 |
| Falcons | 5-9 | -60 |
| Saints | 4-10 | -106 |
Point differential rankings:
• Buccaneers: 20
• Panthers: 22
• Falcons: 23
• Saints: 27
Last week: 10
8) Panthers (7-7): After the Bucs lost on Thursday Night Football, the Panthers had a golden opportunity to take the lead in the NFC South with a win over the Saints. Buuuut, no.
Whichever of the Bucs or Panthers wins this trash division will almost certainly be the 4 seed, which of course is the team with the worst record among the division winners. Recent NFC South history:
| Year | Division winner | Seed |
| 2022 | Buccaneers (8-9) | 4 |
| 2023 | Buccaneers (9-8) | 4 |
| 2024 | Buccaneers (10-7) | 3 |
| 2025 | Buccaneers or Panthers (no better than 10-7) | Likely 4 |
Last week: 9
7) Lions (8-6): After their loss to the Rams on Sunday, the Lions are now in a position in which they pretty much have to win out for any reasonable hope of getting into the tourney. If they do win out, the New York Times playoff odds calculator has the Lions' chances of getting into the playoffs at 95 percent. So, you know, they're still in it. Their last three games:
• Week 16: Steelers
• Week 17: At Vikings
• Week 18: At Bears
Those are all winnable games, but they'll essentially be playing in elimination games from here on out.
And if they're going to get to the Super Bowl this season as, saaayyyy, the 7 seed, they're going to have to win five straight road games to get there, seeing as their final two regular season games are on the road.
Last week: 7
6) Packers (9-4-1): The Packers lost to the Broncos, but even worse they lost Micah Parsons for the season with a torn ACL.
The Packers have already suffered season-ending injuries to star TE Tucker Kraft, starting DT Devonte Wyatt, and their best interior offensive lineman, C Elgton Jenkins.
It's hard to lose that kind of firepower and still contend for the Super Bowl. #Analysis.
Last week: 3
5) Eagles (9-5): Question for my readers: Among all the teams in the Hierarchy here who are still alive, how many offenses (including all decision makers associated with the offense) would you take over the Eagles' offense? I count 6.
On the other hand, how many defenses would you take over the Eagles' defense. I think I might have 0.
Last week: 6
4) 49ers (10-4): The 49ers now have a four-game winning streak... against the Cardinals, Browns, Panthers, and Titans. Combined record: 15-41. They've beaten six teams this season that already have 10 or more losses, and a seventh team (the Falcons) that is 5-9.
Credit the Niners for beating bad teams, all by two scores during their four-game streak, especially with all the injuries they have suffered. And now they get to face the Colts at the best possible time, with Philip Rivers coming out of retirement and the Indy's playoff hopes all but crashed.
Last week: 5
3) Bears (10-4): After winning the turnover battle 3-0 against the Browns on Sunday, the Bears are now +20 on the season. That's hard to do. Over the last 10 seasons, only three teams have finished a season with a turnover differential of +20 or better (regular season only).
| Team | Turnover differential |
| 2024 Bills | +24 |
| 2019 Patri*ts | +21 |
| 2015 Panthers | +20 |
2) Seahawks (11-3): The Seahawks survived the Philip Rivers-led Colts on Sunday. In case you didn't see that game, Colts K Blake Grupe hit a 60 yarder to take the lead 16-15 lead with 47 seconds to play.
The Seahawks then got a good kick return, and only had to drive 25 yards to set up for a 56-yard field goal attempt from Jason Myers, who drilled it.
Kickers have been a big story in the NFL this season, (a) because some of them are hitting 55-plus and even 60-plus yarders with ease (distance-wise), and (b) a lot of guys are also missing shorter kicks. I kinda feel like kickers are going to impact a bunch of playoff games this year, which got me thinking, who are the best kickers among the teams still alive in the NFC? Well...
| Kicker | Team | Made/Attempted | Percentage |
| Eddy Pineiro | 49ers | 25/25 | 100% |
| Harrison Mevis | Rams | 5/5 | 100% |
| Jason Myers | Seahawks | 37/42 | 88.1% |
| Chase McLaughlin | Buccaneers | 26/30 | 86.7% |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | Panthers | 20/24 | 83.3% |
| Cairo Santos | Bears | 21/26 | 80.8% |
| Jake Bates | Lions | 21/27 | 77.8% |
| Jake Elliott | Eagles | 17/22 | 77.3% |
| Brandon McManus | Packers | 19/25 | 76.0% |
Teams like the Eagles, Packers, Bears, and Rams (who replaced the ineffective Josh Karty in November) should all have some concern on that front.
Anyway, getting back to the Seahawks, they host the Rams on Thursday Night Football this week. It absolutely sucks that the NFL makes fans pay for Amazon Prime and a bunch of other streaming services to be able to watch their games.
Last week: 2
1) Rams (11-3): Davante Adams was already trying to play through a hamstring, and then... OH NO!
That's bad timing, you know, with the Rams traveling to Seattle to play a short week game on Thursday that could decide the 1 seed.
Otherwise, the Rams' offense is in high gear, scoring 86 points and gaining 1,049 yards in two games since their upset loss to the Panthers Week 13.
Last week: 1
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