September 26, 2023
Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books, and we have our first obituary of the season. That would be the dysfunctional Chicago Bears. Let's get right to it.
The Bears had a brutal week. To begin, defensive coordinator Alan Williams left the team and he's not coming back.
"I'm told it was not criminal activity, but it was inappropriate, and the Bears' HR department was involved in the decision for Alan Williams to step aside."- Adam Schefter pic.twitter.com/zWIxTGpWd4
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) September 24, 2023
So there's that.
But then also, Justin Fields made comments that he was playing too robotic on gameday. When asked a follow up question on what the cause of his robotic play was, he said "coaching."
Justin Fields didn’t hold back.
— Dave (@dave_bfr) September 20, 2023
Must watch. I love it. pic.twitter.com/bLMrdGXpKP
In his next chat with Bears media, Fields was not pleased with the coverage his words received, and said things like, "It's your guys' job to get clicks," and "Y'all are trying to split us up as a team."
Justin Fields clarifies his comments from his press conference earlier pic.twitter.com/veLleoGbnV
— 79th & Halas Podcast (@79thAndHalas) September 20, 2023
And you know what? There's probably some truth in both of those things, and he's certainly right that when sportswriters cut up small snippets of what he said instead of capturing the message in full, his words seem a lot worse than they actually were. But again, holy s**t, man, what good is going to come from telling the media they're thirsty clickbait artists? Focus on your job, not what people are saying about you.
Looking back at the offseason, a common argument for Justin Fields' potential to make a big leap in his third year in the NFL was that Jalen Hurts did just that in 2022. Well, guess what... Justin Fields ain't Jalen Hurts. Not even close. Not as a player. Certainly not as a leader.
The Bears play in a weak division, and they're already done after three games.
15) Panthers (0-3): I considered killing off the Panthers this week in addition to the Bears, but since Carolina plays the Vikings Week 4, I figure I'll just eulogize whichever team loses that game. Let's save the good stuff for then.
Last week: 14
14) Cardinals (1-2): So I guess the Cardinals aren't the worst team in the NFL after all. 🤷♂️
Of course, if anyone other than Caleb Williams is Arizona's Week 1 starter in 2024, that's probably a bad outcome for them.
Last week: 16
13) Giants (1-2): A common sentiment after the Giants' loss to the 49ers Thursday night was that they played hard, didn't back down, and could build on their performance. For example. The Giants were without Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas, so I kinda get it, I guess. But, uh, they also lost 30-12, and couldn't tackle.
Took half the defense to tackle Deebo Samuel pic.twitter.com/uLFo8MJYbZ
— Alex Tran (@nineralex) September 22, 2023
Sure, Deebo Samuel and the Niners' offensive skill players a great at getting yards after the catch, but plays like the one above happened all night. According to the NFL's NextGen stats, "The 49ers gained 215 of their 310 passing yards after the catch (69.4%) in their 30-12 victory over the Giants."
If the NFL were a two-hand touch league, the Giants might have played a closer game. But, you know, it's not.
Oh, and the Giants also have zero takeaways this season.
Last week: 13
12) Vikings (0-3): With 3:40 left in their game against the Chargers, the Vikings had a 2nd and Goal from the 1. They did not run a QB sneak, likely because their interior offensive line stinks, and also because Kirk Cousins, you know... isn't built for sneaks. Instead, they called a run to Alexander Mattison for a loss of 1, followed by two incomplete passes, and it was a turnover on downs.
On the Chargers' ensuing possession, Brandon Staley elected to go for it on 4th and 1 from his own 24. Again, no QB sneak. Instead, they called a run for Joshua Kelley, their backup running back who at that point had 10 carries for 12 yards on the day. They didn't get, and the Vikings had new life.
With 41 seconds left, on a 4th and 5 from the Chargers' 15 and no timeouts, the Vikings converted with a 9-yard pass to T.J. Hockenson. Any sane team would hurry up to the line to spike it, and have plenty of time to take three shots into the end zone. Or maybe if Cousins and Justin Jefferson wanted to run some sort of wink wink hurry up fake spike fade route that they've worked on in practice and it only takes an extra three or four seconds to run instead of clocking the ball... fine.
What did the Vikings do? They stood around leaderless while a couple dozen second ticked off the clock...
What a terrible sequence by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. They pick up the first down, stand around like they have days left, finally snap the ball after 20 second and throw an int to end the game. pic.twitter.com/xMx6sROUeT
— CFBBlueprint (@CFBBluePrint) September 24, 2023
Pathetic, lol. The Chargers did their best to Charger this game away, but the Vikings just Viking'd a little harder.
Cousins has some crazy stats so far this season:
| Kirk Cousins | Comp-Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Buccaneers | 33-44 (75.0%) | 344 (7.8) | 2-1 | 102.8 |
| Eagles | 31-44 (70.5%) | 364 (8.3) | 4-0 | 125.6 |
| Chargers | 32-50 (64.0%) | 367 (7.3) | 3-1 | 97.7 |
| TOTAL | 96-138 (69.6%) | 1075 (7.8) | 9-2 | 108.2 |
But Sunday was a perfect example of why you don't want Kirk Cousins to be your franchise quarterback.
Last week: 12
11) Commanders (2-1): Sam Howell had a rough day. INT No. 1:
TB with the INT‼️
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/S1E5IBvN6S
INT No. 2:
23 in '23!
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/1l2rg6c4Xg
INT No. 3:
TRE' DAY‼️
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/x2fbNsZZzi
Aaaaand INT No. 4:
First career interception. ☑️
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 24, 2023
First career touchdown. ☑️
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/EmM54fHPAD
Almost as alarming as the INTs was that Howell was sacked nine times and was hit 15 times. Awful performance by the offensive line. On the season, the Commanders have allowed 19 sacks, most in the NFL with a 6-sack cushion.
Last week: 11
10) Rams (1-2): I'll be honest. I didn't see a second of the Rams' Monday night game against the Bengals, but you're not going to win many games when you go 1/11 on third down.
This isn't a bad team, though. They have played three teams that made the playoffs in 2022 and they have a positive point differential.
Last week: 8
9) Buccaneers (2-1): When the NFL schedule came out in May, this game felt like a "no doubt about it" W for the Eagles. It was enlightening getting to know the Bucs this week, who were a lot better than I thought they were a month ago. They have talented players on both sides of the ball, and it's my understanding that the Eagles felt that this defense was the best they had to prepare for this season, which comes as a surprise to me since the Patriots are pretty good, too.
But ultimately they have no run game whatsoever and they got absolutely worked in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Can they win the NFC South? If some things fall the right way, sure. Are they Super Bowl contenders? God no.
Last week: 10
8) Saints (2-1): Derek Carr got slammed to the turf by Rashan Gary. This looked like it hurt a little bit:
Replay of the Derek Carr injury … pic.twitter.com/Lp57hLf3U6
— René Bugner (@RNBWCV) September 24, 2023
It appears to be an AC sprain, according to Ian Rapoport. If that sounds familiar, it's what Jalen Hurts suffered against the Bears last season, though his was a severe case. The Saints have road games the next two weeks against the Patriots and the improved Texans.
Carr is a mediocre quarterback, but he sure as hell is better than Jameis Winston.
Last week: 7
7) Falcons (2-1): The way to defend the Falcons feels pretty clear. Pack the box, stop the run, send heavy pressure, and make Desmond Ridder beat you down the field with quick decisions.
Last week: 4
6) Packers (2-1): With the Bears' season already in the toilet and the Vikings out to an 0-3 start, Lions at Packers Week 4 is a huge early season matchup in the NFC North. If the Packers can take care of business at home, they have a lot of junk on their schedule thereafter:
• Week 5: At Raiders
• Week 6: BYE
• Week 7: At Broncos
• Week 8: Vikings
• Week 9: Rams
Last week: 6
5) Seahawks (2-1): The Seahawks have scored 37 points in each of their last two games. They seem to be back on their "frisky NFC Tier 2 team" track after a bad performance Week 1.
Last week: 9
4) Lions (2-1): The best argument for the Lions' staying power at the top of the NFC "Tier 2 teams" is this:
Thru Week 3, there is only one interior offensive line with a unit grade of at least 70.0 (Lions at 78.6)
— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) September 26, 2023
Talked about it on the Forecast, but among many other league-wide defensive adjustments, imo a HUGE reason why scoring is down
Elite iDL are dominating (and multiplying)
Last week: 5
3) Cowboys (2-1): If I were a Cowboys fan, the biggest concern I would have after the loss to the Cardinals is the run defense. The Cardinals rushed 30 times for 222 yards (7.4 YPC) and 2 TDs, and it's not as if they employ Walter Payton. The Cowboys' two biggest obstacles in the NFC are the Eagles and 49ers, both of whom can run the crap out of the ball. Those two teams are why the Cowboys selected Mazi Smith in the first round of the 2023 draft.
Secondarily, I'd be worried about Tony Pollard's workload. This offseason Mike McCarthy canned Kellen Moore and took over play calling duties, vowing to run the ball a lot more. He also hired notoriously run-heavy offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. There was some debate over whether the Cowboys would actually be as run heavy as McCarthy promised, and, uh, yep, they are.
Tony Pollard is on pace for 419 touches this season. He has never had a truly heavy workload in his college or NFL careers:
| Tony Pollard | Touches | Touches per game |
| 2016 (Memphis) | 60 | 4.6 |
| 2017 (Memphis) | 66 | 5.1 |
| 2018 (Memphis) | 117 | 8.4 |
| 2019 (Dallas) | 101 | 6.7 |
| 2020 (Dallas) | 129 | 8.1 |
| 2021 (Dallas) | 175 | 10.9 |
| 2022 (Dallas) | 258 | 14.3 |
| 2023 (Dallas) | 74 (on pace for 419) | 24.7 |
To put that his 419-touch pace in perspective, the Cowboys ran Ezekiel Elliott into the ground, and Zeke's single-season high (regular season only) was 381 touches.
During the telecast, Moose Johnston made an asinine comment that the Cowboys have a great group of running backs, citing backups Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn as the reasons why. Heading into their matchup with the Cardinals, those two guys had a combined 29 career carries for 98 yards, lol. If the Cowboys wear out Pollard or he gets hurt they won't have a legitimate run game.
Last week: 1
2) Eagles (3-0): NFL rushing yardage differentials:
| Team | Rush yards | Rush yards allowed | Differential |
| Eagles | 557 | 145 | +412 |
| 49ers | 488 | 159 | +329 |
| Browns | 482 | 156 | +326 |
| Ravens | 474 | 277 | +197 |
| Dolphins | 565 | 390 | +175 |
| Lions | 335 | 216 | +119 |
| Bills | 448 | 332 | +116 |
| Seahawks | 313 | 238 | +75 |
| Cardinals | 469 | 404 | +65 |
| Titans | 271 | 208 | +63 |
| Cowboys | 441 | 394 | +47 |
| Jaguars | 295 | 252 | +43 |
| Patriots | 321 | 280 | +41 |
| Chiefs | 344 | 308 | +36 |
| Falcons | 385 | 353 | +32 |
| Colts | 330 | 343 | -13 |
| Chargers | 324 | 341 | -17 |
| Saints | 280 | 299 | -19 |
| Rams | 252 | 311 | -59 |
| Bears | 305 | 365 | -60 |
| Commanders | 319 | 386 | -67 |
| Buccaneers | 234 | 309 | -75 |
| Panthers | 298 | 410 | -112 |
| Jets | 274 | 388 | -114 |
| Packers | 271 | 410 | -139 |
| Texans | 210 | 352 | -142 |
| Giants | 264 | 414 | -150 |
| Vikings | 199 | 362 | -163 |
| Raiders | 185 | 382 | -197 |
| Bengals | 208 | 455 | -247 |
| Broncos | 285 | 533 | -248 |
| Steelers | 201 | 455 | -254 |
Last week: 3
1) 49ers (3-0): The 49ers play the Cardinals Week 4. It's weird that the Cardinals have played each of the Eagles' NFC East rivals the first three weeks of the season, and then arguably their biggest threat in the NFC. After this week, Eagles fans can go back to hating on Jonathan Gannon full time.
As for the Niners' Thursday night game Week 3, Brock Purdy eventually settled down, but he looked pretttayyyy pretttaaaayyyy shaky to start.
The Niners have been the most impressive NFC team so far. I'll be interested to see what they look like against a good team.
Last week: 2
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