March 21, 2023
Whether you play fantasy baseball, daily fantasy, or are just a diehard fan, there is a lot to be learned from how the Phillies' top players are projected to perform during the 2023 season.
There are a ton of fantasy-relevant stars on the Phils' roster, from newly acquired shortstop Trea Turner to rehabbing NLCS MVP Bryce Harper to NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber to a pitching staff expected to be among the league's best.
Just how are these and other Phillies players valued by statistical gurus and fantasy projections?
Looking at these might provide a window into how exactly fans should set expectations for individual performances from players in the lineup.
Here's a look at some key rankings and stat projections from the top fantasy sites in baseball (for our purposes, we'll use ESPN, FantasyPros, FanGraphs and Yahoo!):
|ESPN||.299/.347/.481||24 HR, 91 RBI, 34 SB|
|Fantasy Pros||.295/.342/.472||22 HR, 81 RBI, 32 SB|
|FanGraphs||.287/.337/.448||21 HR, 96 RBI, 30 SB|
A trend you'll see is that FanGraphs, which uses Streamer to make their fantasy rankings, has some very pessimistic projections for players, and for whatever reason, it has Turner 21st among hitters and sixth among shortstops. The rest of the more mainstream fantasy rankings have the Phillies boasting the best shortstop in baseball. After his showing in the World Baseball Classic, maybe it's best not to overthink this one.
|ESPN||193 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP|
|Fantasy Pros||195.6 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP|
|FanGraphs||199.9 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP|
Across the board, Nola is a top-six starter and seems like a safe bet to be in the mix for a Cy Young award if he stays healthy.
|ESPN||180 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP|
|Fantasy Pros||182.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP|
|FanGraphs||189 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP|
Wheeler actually has some better projected stats than Nola, and the duo make for one of the better one-two punches in the sport. Having two top-15 starters is an impressive thing to boast.
|ESPN||.241/.352/.533||45 HR, 94 RBI, 90 BB|
|Fantasy Pros||.234/.333/.502||39 HR, 90 RBI, 78 BB|
|FanGraphs||.234/.337/.485||39 HR, 90 RBI, 82 BB|
Schwarber is going to hit a lot of home runs and walk a lot — two very appealing talents for a fantasy baseball player. The argument seems to be over where exactly to place him compared to other hitters and outfielders. It seems like somewhere in the 30s is the general consensus. Perhaps he'll wind up being a steal with the shift gone for 2023.
|ESPN||.243/.335/.476||31 HR, 84 RBI, 71 BB|
|Fantasy Pros||.238/.326/.461||29 HR, 83 RBI, 70 BB|
|FanGraphs||.238/.335/.453||29 HR, 86 RBI, 76 BB|
ESPN is very high on Hoskins, who is a true outcomes guy and sees a lot of pitches. He has similar projected stats to Schwarber but he hits slightly fewer home runs and is very much at the whims of hot and cold streaks during the season.
|ESPN||.264/.336/.456||21 HR, 83 RBI|
|Fantasy Pros||.262/.320/.446||19 HR, 75 RBI|
|FanGraphs||.256/.324/.445||19 HR, 72 RBI|
Two outlets agree that Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. But just what that means is hard to say. He's still going to be playing more than basically any other catcher, and he can do everything, from handling the pitching staff to hitting clutch homers to throwing out base runners.
|ESPN||149 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP|
|Fantasy Pros||158.8 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP|
|FanGraphs||165 IP, 3.91 ERA, .136 WHIP|
The Phillies' fourth starter has no real consensus around what kinds of expectations are reasonable. FanGraphs thinks he's the 56th-best starter in baseball and Fantasy Pros has him nearly twice as far down their list.
|ESPN||.267/.314/.448||22 HR, 76 RBI|
|Fantasy Pros||.265/.311/.446||21 HR, 78 RBI|
|FanGraphs||.260/.311/.431||20 HR, 77 RBI|
I have no idea what the heck is going on with FanGraphs' Nick Castellanos ranking, but clearly from his projected production, he is expected to rebound and be a 20-home run guy in 2023.
|ESPN||.272/.318/.388||13 HR, 73 RBI|
|Fantasy Pros||.273/.321/.404||14 HR, 69 RBI|
|FanGraphs||.271/.324/.411||15 HR, 68 RBI|
Bohm has been really good this spring and could honestly pan out as a better hitter than these projections say.
|ESPN||157 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP|
|Fantasy Pros||154.9, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP|
|FanGraphs||161 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP|
The Phillies basically have a replacement-level starter in Walker. Anything better than average will be exceeding expectations.
|ESPN||22 saves, 3.57 ERA|
|Fantasy Pros||15 saves, 3.89 ERA|
|FanGraphs||9 saves, 3.81 ERA|
For what it's worth, Yahoo had Kimbrel as the 33rd-best reliever. It's unclear how many save opportunities the veteran closer will have on a staff that is expected to close by committee.
|ESPN||.298/.398/.577||13 HR, 37 RBI|
|Fantasy Pros||.278/.378/.542||16 HR, 50 RBI|
|FanGraphs||.273/.377/.505||16 HR, 50 RBI|
Really, Harper's value in a fantasy draft and overall this season depends on when you think he will return to the lineup. Recent reports are extremely optimistic about Harper's return before the All-Star Break from Tommy John surgery. And there is little doubt he'll be his slugging self when he returns.
|ESPN||.258/.324/.408||13 HR, 51 RBI|
|Fantasy Pros||.250/.315/.390||11 HR, 49 RBI|
|FanGraphs||.250/.316/.393||11 HR, 49 RBI|
Stott will start every day at second and projections are modest at best.
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