July 16, 2026
The season is about to re-start and the push for a playoff spot will begin in earnest this week. The Phillies are in solid shape, sitting just two games behind the Braves for the NL East lead and in position for a Wild Card slot.
Baseball Reference and Fangraphs each expect the Phillies to be playing in October — they hold greater than 85% odds via each analytics site. Their World Series odds (+1200 via FanDuel) are tied for fifth best in the majors.
The expectations for success are there.
But the schedule is not easy. By opponent win percentage (.514), the Phillies have the fourth toughest remaining slate of games ahead. They have 11 series to go against teams currently in the playoff picture (and 10 against sub .500 teams) — which one could argue will help to prepare them for the postseason. After a trio of games against the Mets beginning Thursday, they have three straight series against teams currently in playoff position in the Dodgers, Yankees and Marlins.
And while they are indeed within striking distance of the Braves with seven games remaining against them (all to be played in September), they have a slim two-game hold on their current second Wild Card spot with a handful of teams itching to catch them.
It's also worth noting, though perhaps a bit early to worry about, that in each of the last two Octobers the Phillies lost in the NLDS (their de facto first round) after winning the NL East and earning a bye through the Wild Card round.
| Team | Record | GB |
| Dodgers* | 61-36 | |
| Brewers* | 59-37 | 1.5 |
| Braves** | 55-40 | 5 |
| Cubs | 55-42 | 6.5 |
| Phillies | 54-43 | 7 |
| Marlins** | 52-45 | 9 |
| Cardinals** | 50-45 | 10 |
| Pirates | 50-47 | 11 |
| Diamondbacks* | 49-47 | 11.5 |
A bye, right now, seems like a total pipe dream. On paper an older team like the Phils would love to have the extra time off to rest and get their rotation in line. But history has shown the time off has been a detriment to them. As long as they finish the season with fewer wins than the Dodgers and Brewers, an NL East title would still put them in a three-game Wild Card against the worst of the Wild Card clinchers.
If the season ended right now (it doesn't), they would face the Cubs in Chicago in a best of three series with a chance to play the Brewers in a second round best of five series. An NL East title or top Wild Card spot would give them that three-game set at home, which is a theoretical advantage (though they have more wins on the road so far this season).
Really the only thing that matters is punching a ticket, any ticket, and riding Zack Wheeler and Cris Sánchez to the World Series.
A strong trade deadline will help, a lot. So will handling the teams with winning records and winning aspirations ahead in their remaining 65 games.
SIGN UP HERE to receive the PhillyVoice Sports newsletter
Follow Evan on Twitter:@evan_macy
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
