April 18, 2022
The Toronto Raptors are not in a great spot on paper. In the dying moments of their blowout loss to the Sixers in Game 1, versatile rookie Scottie Barnes was dragged off the floor due to an ankle injury, compromising a Raptors team that had already lost Thaddeus Young to a thumb issue. As per usual in the playoffs, the Raptors have remained vague about the severity and status of Barnes for as long as they could, but head coach Nick Nurse confirmed Monday that Barnes would miss Game 2 at a minimum.
"Scottie's out," Nurse told reporters. "Gary [Trent Jr.] is not here for shootaround, he's still doubtful and Thad is, I mean, he's got some damage there in his thumb. They are going to try to tape him up here today and see what it looks like here shootaround, but I would imagine he's doubtful, too."
Even if we leave the door open for Trent Jr. and Young, that is not a promising state of affairs for the Raptors. At best, they're getting a physically compromised version of Young, Trent Jr. in a condition where he did not show for shootaround, and missing the best player of those three. Adjustments were already going to be a huge talking point heading into the game, and now the Raptors have a huge decision to make. How do you replace a player who started 74 games this season and helped build their identity on both ends of the floor?
The short answer: you don't. But while the Sixers are aware of how big a loss this is for Toronto, it has not allowed them to relax or feel any relief heading into a pivotal Game 2.
"Scottie Barnes is a great player for them, but those guys are still going to come in and play as hard as they can," Georges Niang said Monday. "They still have length off the bench. He's a great player, don't get me wrong, but we still have to have the same mentality, killer mentality going in there. They're not going to let up or play any less hard, that team is built on playing hard, scrappy, being physical and using their size... it's not going to stop us [or make us] take it easy or play any less hard because those guys are coming full throttle."
Presumably, Barnes' absence will bring one of Precious Achiuwa or Chris Boucher into the starting lineup, at least if the Raptors decide to stick with an athletic, switching mentality to deal with Philadelphia. Achiuwa seems like the safest bet out of the group, a guy who has had success against James Harden on an island, though bunkering down and trying to defend Joel Embiid specifically will be top of mind as always.
The other absences should not be discounted for the impact they'll have on the game. Setting aside his poor performance in Game 1, Trent Jr. is the best volume shooter Toronto has on the roster, and any options to replace him represent a downgrade in both efficiency and volume. As Sixers fans have learned the hard way over the last few years, the willingness to shoot and ability to get shots up can be as important as the ability to eventually make those shots. Sliding a bigger player into the lineup to replace Trent Jr. could make the Raptors defense a bit friskier, but they still need to prove they have a halfcourt offense capable of upending a good team in the playoffs.
Even defensive gains are theoretical at best. Tyrese Maxey thrived as a second-side attacker in Game 1 of this series, scrambling defenders struggling to track him. Yuta Watanabe, who Nurse named as a "next man up" candidate in the rotation prior to Game 1, is a competitor on defense with good quickness at his prototypical Raptors size (6'9"). That said, being quick for your size and being quick enough to credibly deal with Maxey in space is another story. With the Sixers leaning on 1/2 ball screens with Maxey for Harden throughout Game 1, and the Raptors selling out to stop Embiid in the paint, preserving matchups that slow down young Maxey will be easier said than done.
Cue The Simpsons:
Having a lot of things breaking in their favor, though, has never guaranteed a Sixers victory in the past, and certainly not this season. If anything, a wave of absences for Toronto might prompt Nick Nurse to get more gimmicky than ever, throwing crazy stuff at the wall just to see if anything can work. Danny Green told reporters Sunday that the Sixers have to be prepared for just about anything, even with Barnes out. That rings especially true for Tyrese Maxey, the 38-point scorer from Game 1 who will rank high atop the priority list for the Raptors in the first rematch.
"I'd assume Scottie would have been guarding Tyrese to put a bigger body on him to try to affect him with length," Green said. "I think they're going to throw different things at him. They're not going to let him get to the basket easy with pick-and-rolls. They might blitz it, they may go zone, they might throw a lot of things at him. Triangle and two, box and one, you don't know what Nick's going to do."
As the saying goes, a playoff series doesn't really start until someone manages to win a game on the road. Up to this point, Philadelphia has done its job and protected homecourt, but that is all they have done. The Sixers looked wildly overmatched in their Game 1 loss to Toronto in 2019, only to come back and win Game 2 in a defensive slugfest where a 30-ball from Jimmy Butler barely got the Sixers over the line. The two teams shot a combined 63/166 from the field after Philly made the simple choice to slide Embiid onto Pascal Siakam, and the series was on from there.
In other words, the available chess pieces favor Philly on Monday night, but they are a long way from claiming victory.
"Your next game is the most important game you've had this season," Matisse Thybulle said Monday. "So, last game was obviously our most important game of the season, today will be the most important game of the season, and we just see it that way going into each game."
Danny Green on Embiid's offensive approach: "I think he knows who he's playing against. Took his time, didn't turn the ball over which is great. He knows what kind of things they throw out, he's been playing against him for a number of years to know how they're going to attack him. He knows what he has to do, bait the defense sometimes, take his time find guys, and give up himself offensively. We'll see how he approaches it and how he attacks it [in Game 2], and how they guard him next game. I think he'll make the right reads like he's been doing all year long, that's why in my opinion he's the most valuable player in this league."
Nick Nurse on the officiating in Game 1: “I don’t care if you’re 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds, if you beat [Joel Embiid] to the spot and he runs you over, it’s a foul. I thought he threw three or four elbows to the face. He got called for one. We’re going to stand in there... If we’re legal defensively, then we gotta have them call it or we don’t have a chance. Period. Nobody can guard that guy if they’re just gonna let him run you over time and time again. We’re gonna stand in there and we’ll see.”
Doc Rivers on Nick Nurse's complaints about officiating: "I don't have a lot of comments to that. I thought Joel got fouled every time."
To the shock of absolutely no one, the coaches of each team disagreed on how Game 1 was officiated. My only commentary here is that I don't think the Sixers won by 20 because of the officials.
Toronto: Scottie Barnes, OUT (left ankle sprain); Gary Trent Jr., DOUBTFUL (non-COVID illness); Thaddeus Young, DOUBTFUL (left thumb
Philadelphia: Charles Bassey, OUT (right shoulder sprain); Jaden Springer, QUESTIONABLE (right knee contusion)
You know the deal here. Unless you skipped the top portion of this article, in which case, shame on you!
Looking past Game 2, my read on Barnes is that his return might hinge on how the series plays out. If the Sixers put the screws to the Raptors over the next two games and take a commanding lead in the series, Toronto might decide to err on the side of caution and not risk a more devastating injury for Barnes by bringing him back too soon. If we're sitting at 2-1 in either direction after Game 3, that's when I think it might get interesting, especially since these teams will have two consecutive off days on Thursday and Friday before an afternoon Game 4 in Toronto.
Barnes was spotted with a sizable boot on his left foot at shootaround on Monday morning, for those tracking at home. Make of that what you will.
Crew chief: James Capers
Referee: Mark Lindsay
Umpire: JB DeRosa
Capers is one of the league's most experienced officials, 27 years deep into his career. This season, he was one of the most balanced officials in the league with respect to calls on home and road teams, leaning ever-so-slightly in favor of road teams but hardly enough to even notice.
A lot of eyes will be on the officials on Monday, with the Raptors a bit peeved about how Game 1 was called. I'm not all that sympathetic to their plight. Harden did not get the benefit of the doubt for most of that game, and the free-throw disparity between the teams was pretty much in line with what you'd expect based on how often they foul and how often their top players get to the stripe. The best version of the Raptors hinges on being able to play physical basketball, and if the refs tuck the whistles to allow that to happen, that would also seem to benefit Joel Embiid in his battles against smaller players. I respect using pressers to advocate for a more favorable whistle, but I'm not sure how impactful it will be in this matchup.
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