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November 30, 2018

Sports betting with 'The Philly Godfather': It's tough to get behind the Eagles in Week 13

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113018_Doug-Pederson_usat Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson.

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro and college football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, thephillygodfather.com.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:00 p.m. Monday

Games 379 & 380 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Eagles minus-6 | Total: 44.5

What is the line telling you: Bookmakers in Vegas opened this line as the Eagles being large 7-point home favorites with the combined total set at 44 on Sunday night. By Monday morning, you saw the smart money nibbling on the underdog Redskins here, reducing the 7. The total was also whacked by the wiseguys, which forced oddsmakers to adjust the total before settling. As of right now, all offshore books are offering the Eagles at minus-6, while out in the desert they’re hanging with the Eagles at minus-6.5 points. The early reports in Vegas, offshore and in Atlantic City are all reporting a 65-35 tilt on the Eagles when it comes to tickets punched, and a top-heavy 60-40 clip on Doug Pederson’s team on the overall money wagered. 

As of right now, the early sharp money is on the Redskins and the over. But that could change once the final injury reports come out. There are a lot of uncertainties as to who’s going to play and who isn’t going to play. As of right now, almost all of the Eagles’ secondary starters are still out. Both team’s defenses have struggled over the last three games. During that stretch, the Eagles have given up the third-most opponent’s yards per play in the NFL. This basically looks like another battle between two NFC East teams fighting for their playoff lives. It’s really hard to back this Eagles team since they’re 0-4 against the spread coming off a win. They’re 3-8 against the Vegas number during the season and 3-7 against the spread as a favorite this year.     

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Redskins and the over.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. Sunday

Games 357 & 358 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Falcons minus-2 | Total: 48.5

What is the line telling you: The bookmakers offshore liked Lamar Jackson and the 6-5 Ravens, who have won two-straight, as small, two-point road favorites, and the combined total set at 48. Within the blink of an eye, we saw an influx of smart money attack the screen, and by Tuesday, the 4-7 Falcons, who have lost three in a row, became a 1-point home favorite. The total has been frozen at 48.5. The early ticket count covering offshore, Vegas and Atlantic City is showing 65-percent of all wagers punched on the Falcons, while the overall money wagered is a 50-50 split. The sharp money likes Atlanta, regardless of the fact that the Ravens’ defense has given up the least amount of points in the NFL this year. 

The Ravens secondary and linebackers are good, but they lack that shut-down corner that top-rated defenses use to cover Julio Jones. Baltimore’s defense does look good on paper. The Ravens have allowed the fewest number of yards per pass attempt, at 5.3, but are 0-4 this year when they allow an opponent to score more than 21 points. The Falcons are averaging 28 points per game at home this season. In four of Baltimore’s five losses this year, they’ve come against teams that are in the top 15 in the yards-per-play metric. The Falcons are ranked seventh in yards-per-play and sixth in yards-per-pass attempt. Lamar Jackson’s third-straight win will more than likely be put on hold here.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Falcons and the moneyline.

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots, 4:00 p.m. Sunday

Games 375 & 376 on the sports betting screen

The Line: Patriots minus-5 | Total: 49.5

What is the line telling you: Bookmakers opened this game Sunday night with the New England Patriots being a 6-point favorite over the Minnesota Vikings, with the total set at 48. The sharp money immediately started to attack the market and purchased all the plus-6, plus-5.5 and plus-5s that they could find on the road team Minnesota. We also saw the wiseguys bury the over 48, which forced a 1.5-point uptick in the market. As of right now, Pinnacle Sports is offering you the Patriots as 4.5-point favorites, while the total shot up to 49.5 and will more than likely continue to rise barring any bad weather. 

The early ticket count from behind the counter accumulated from every sports book in Sin City are reporting almost 70-percent of the bets made have been on New England. Minnesota's defense comes in ranked fifth in opponent yards-per-play and 10th in opponent points-per-game, but over the last three games, they’ve given up the least yards and points in football. The Vikings defense is also ranked first in opposing red zone efficiency, fifth in opponent yards per-pass-attempt and fourth in opponent’s rushing yards per game. The Vikings strength is on defense, with an offensive line that ranks sixth in pass protection Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR). The fact that the Patriots have the 30th ranked pass rush in the NFL should help Minnesota stay within the number and keep this game close in Foxborough.

Bottom line: The smart money likes the Vikings.


MORE: Safety Blitz with Malcolm Jenkins: Eagles defensive captain has become coach on the field for 'practice squad' guys starting in secondary


College games

•  Georgia-Alabama over 63.5 (Games 315-316)
•  Fresno State-Boise State over 53 (317-318)
•  Texas-Oklahoma under 77 (311-312)
•  
Marshall plus-4.5 vs. Virginia Tech (329-330)

(Betting lines are subject to change.)

The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @phillygodfather & his website is thephillygodfather.com.


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