September 18, 2025
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 3 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Dolphins at Bills (-12): My "first NFL head coach to be fired this season" power rankings:
1) Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
(WIDE GAP HERE)
2) Brian Daboll, Giants
The Dolphins got drubbed by the Colts Week 1, and then lost to a rebuilding Pats team at home Week 2. Now they have to go to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has been one of the most impressive teams to begin the 2025 season. Miami should be looking to trade off vets like Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb by October.
Rams at Eagles (-3.5): In Week 1, the Eagles' defense kinda got roasted by a talented wide receiver duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and it would've been worse if they hadn't dropped a bunch of passes. They got a bit of a reprieve Week 2 against the Chiefs, who were missing their top two receivers. In Week 3, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will be another big test. I do like that matchup for the Rams.
However, I like a bunch of matchups in the Eagles' favor more, beginning with the Eagles' rushing attack against a Rams front that got straight-up bullied in the run game in the two matchups between these teams last season. I also like A.J. Brown's chances of breaking out against maybe the smallest set of corners in the NFL, even if we haven't yet seen much from the Eagles' passing attack.
It's also worth noting that the Rams could be without a small handful of starters, while the Eagles could be getting Dallas Goedert back from a one-game absence.
Colts (-4) at Titans: I mean...
It would be very funny if Daniel Jones is suddenly awesome.
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) August 19, 2025
Jets at Buccaneers (-7): Each week in our preview of the Eagles' next matchup, we try to take a look at their opponent's offensive line. I'm going to get a little bit of a head start on the Bucs' offensive line here, since it is a major issue for them at the moment. If everyone were healthy, Tampa's offensive line would look like this:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Tristin Wirfs | Ben Bredeson | Graham Barton | Cody Mauch | Luke Goedeke |
Wirfs started the season on the PUP list after having surgery on his right knee. Rather than have swing tackle Charlie Heck fill in directly for Wirfs, they moved Barton from C to LT, and Bredeson from LG to C. At LG, they inserted Michael Jordan, a guy they had originally signed to their practice squad after 53-man cutdowns.
During their Week 2 win over the Texans, Goedeke injured his foot, and Heck filled in at RT. Goedeke is expected to miss "multiple weeks."
It was reported on Wednesday that Mauch's season is over with a knee injury. It is unknown who would fill in for Mauch at RG.
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Graham Barton | Mike Jordan | Ben Bredeson | ? | Charlie Heck |
In other words, there are likely to be zero spots along the Bucs' offensive line that will be manned by the player they intended when forming their roster.
I'm still picking them to win because the Jets stink, but I will take the Jets plus the 7 points, even with Tyrod Taylor replacing Justin Fields at quarterback.
Texans at Jaguars (-2): It just occurred to me that the AFC South has the highest drafted quarterbacks on average in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence and Cam Ward both went 1st overall, C.J. Stroud went 2nd, and Daniel Jones 6th.
I don't have any actual analysis of this game, because really, who cares?
Broncos at Chargers (-3): The Chargers defense has been what people thought the Broncos defense would be this season.
Saints at Seahawks (-7.5): The Seahawks aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but they'll win 8 or 9 games. This will be one of them.
Cowboys at Bears (-1.5): In their last five quarters the Bears have allowed 73 points.
Cardinals at 49ers (-2.5): Brock Purdy may or may not play in this game, so picking this game on Thursday feels kind of pointless. I think I'm just rooting for Mac Jones to play again, and play well, so that I can watch 49ers fans fight over whether or not they should have given Purdy a $265 million contract.
Barring a tie, one of these very average teams will be 3-0 after this matchup.
Chiefs (-6.5) at Giants: Wait, the Giants got a Week 3 Sunday Night Football game? And last week we got Falcons-Vikings? Who at NBC isn't fighting hard enough for better games?
Anyway, are we sure the Chiefs are still good? I kinda feel like they might not be, and will miss the playoffs? But for one week they'll look better. The Giants have a way of making opponents feel good about themselves.
Lions at Ravens (-5): This is the game of the week. The Ravens have put up 40+ points in both of their games so far. They scored 30 or more points in 11 games last year. The Lions 50-burgered the Bears last week, but looked terrible Week 1 against the Packers. I guess I just trust the Ravens' ability to consistently score a lot of points, especially when the stakes aren't really that high yet.
The Bills are the chalk pick this week, and, well, I'm going chalk, just like I did Week 1 and Week 2. 🤷♂️
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 457-389-22 (0.539)
MORE: Five things to watch in Eagles-Chiefs
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