September 25, 2025
Kim Klement Neitzel/Imagn Images
Unlike his last two matchups against the Bucs, Jalen Hurts will have A.J. Brown.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 4 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Seahawks (-1) at Cardinals: The Seahawks' defensive front has been very good their first three games, and the Cardinals lost James Connor for the season. I don't like Cardinals' chances of running the ball in this game, or really for the rest of the season. The run game was a sneaky strength last year for Arizona. They finished 7th in rushing yards (144.2 per game) and 2nd in YPC (5.3). Without it, they're going to have to rely on Kyler Murray's arm, and I just don't love that for them.
Vikings (-2.5) at Steelers: The Steelers are averaging 2.8 yards per rushing attempt, and Aaron Rodgers is dead last in the NFL in "intended average air yards." In other words, they can't run it, but also Rodgers refuses to push the ball down the field. This might be the most boring offense in the league. I hate myself for putting any trust in Carson Wentz not making some dumbass decisions in the pocket and getting strip sacked a couple times by the likes of T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig, and Cameron Heyward, but I also just feel very safe picking against the Steelers when they have the ball.
This game is in Dublin, by the way, so we get our first 9:30 a.m. start time of the season. I'm really only making a pick on this game because I need something to root for in the press box in Tampa while I wait for the Eagles-Bucs kickoff. Otherwise, I'd just stay away.
Eagles (-3.5) at Buccaneers: Yes, Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers have given Jalen Hurts and the Eagles all they can handle whenever the Birds have had to travel south to Tampa. But it's also worth noting that the Eagles were without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson in their matchup with the Bucs last season. They were also without Brown in their embarrassing playoff loss to the Bucs following the 2023 season.
Ever since the Eagles traded for Brown, the Eagles are 44-10 (0.815) when both Brown and DeVonta Smith play (including the playoffs).
| Year | Both play | One guy out | Both guys out |
| 2022 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 11-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 14-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| 2025 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| TOTAL | 44-10 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
They are 4-4 when at least one of Brown or Smith is out of the lineup. So there's that.
But also, the Bucs will be without Mike Evans, as well as their starting RG (Cody Mauch) and RT (Luke Goedeke). Unlike in recent matchups, the Bucs have the more impactful losses on the injury front.
Credit the Bucs for getting to 3-0 with an injury-depleted roster, but they have also beaten a trio of teams with a combined record of 1-8, and each of those games has required late-game magic by Baker Mayfield. The Eagles are a far, far better team than anyone they have faced so far. Give me the Eagles, semi-comfortably... 27-16.
Saints at Bills (-15.5): Obvious survivor pick if you haven't used the Bills yet.
Panthers at Patriots (-5.5): Drake Maye looks good so far. The Pats are going to win, like, seven games this year. This will be one of them against a bad Panthers defense shut out the Falcons last week but will come back down to earth.
Commanders (-1) at Falcons: I don't care who the Commanders' quarterback is in this game. They're better than the Falcons either way, and if Jayden Daniels plays, then hey, great. This is the strangest line of the week. I'll lay the point all day. But also, if you're an Eagles fan, this is the kind of game where you bet on the Commanders, and if they don't cover, then they lose, in which case you can at least make fun of the Commanders fan friend in your life.
Browns at Lions (-9.5): This is a survivor pick possibility, but we'll get to that in a minute. Obviously, the Lions have been really impressive the last two weeks, blowing out the Bears Week 2 and looking good in all three phases against the Ravens Week 3.
Titans at Texans (-7): The Texans stink, and can't protect their quarterback. The Titans stink more, and their offensive line is somehow even worse.
Chargers (-6) at Giants: The Chargers play in one of the hardest divisions in the NFL, and they have beaten all three of their AFC West rivals through the first three weeks. If the season ended today (it doesn't), Justin Herbert would get strong MVP consideration. As far as Herbert's placement within the hierarchy of NFL quarterbacks, wake me up when he plays well in the playoffs, but for now, he's balling.
Meanwhile, the Giants have unsurprisingly looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Jaxson Dart will make his debut in this matchup, so that'll be interesting to watch. Malik Nabers (shoulder) is banged up, but will likely play.
I dunno, I see one of the best teams in the league so far vs. one of the worst and the line is only six? Sure, I'll bite, even if the Chargers have consistently burned me, like every year I've made picks.
Jaguars at 49ers (-3.5): The Jags have been a sneaky surprise team so far this season, and if Mac Jones were still at quarterback I'd be picking them to win outright. But with Brock Purdy likely back, I can't pull the trigger on them on the road.
Colts at Rams (-3.5): The Colts have been the biggest surprise team in the NFL so far, as they sit at 3-0 with the best point differential in the NFL at +47. They have a good offensive line, good skill position players, a great running back, and a head coach in Shane Steichen who knows how to accentuate quarterbacks' strengths and hide their weaknesses, just as he did with a more raw Jalen Hurts in 2022. You know what? I'm in.
Bears at Raiders (-1.5): The Bears have a the makings of an explosive offense, and we got a little glimpse of it last week. They're not ready to contend, but I like their chances against a bottom feeder like the Raiders.
Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs: The Ravens lose in maddening ways, and for as good as Lamar Jackson is and the plays he is able to make, can he throw the ball away on occasion when there's nothing there, please? But for as frustrating as they can be, the Ravens are very, very clearly the better team in this matchup, and laying 2.5 points feels like a nice bargain.
Packers (-7) at Cowboys: The Packers are overrated, but they'll take care of the Cowboys in Micah Parsons' return to Dallas. The Cowboys' season has a chance to go sideways really early this season.
Jets at Dolphins (-3): These are two very bad teams, but I think the Jets have shown more so far than the Dolphins, and they were competitive in the heat in Tamps Week 3.
Bengals at Broncos (-7.5): Jake Browning has been bad at quarterback for the Bengals, but they also haven't been able to run the ball, at all. They're dead last in the NFL in YPC (2.4) and rushing first downs (11), and their long run on the season is 12 yards, shortest in the NFL. They're just completely inept on offense without Joe Burrow.
In the one pool I'm actually in, I didn't get my Bills pick in on time before their Thursday night game. Oops. I had to take the Seahawks instead, oh and hey that worked out! So I get to use the Bills this week against the Saints. 🎉
Here, where I didn't fail to get my pick in on time last week, it's a toss-up between the Broncos over the Bengals and the Lions over the Browns. The Browns scare me a bit because of how they're able to get after the quarterback. They looked dangerous to me in joint practices this summer, and they took down the Packers last week. I'm going Broncos, and I'll save the Lions for another week.
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 459-391-22 (0.539)
MORE: Five things to watch in Eagles-Bucs
Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | thePhillyVoice
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
Add Jimmy's RSS feed to your feed reader
