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October 17, 2019

Week 7 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Chiefs (-3) at Broncos: A couple weeks ago this line would have been Chiefs by, what, 10? But now, after a couple of Chiefs home losses and a pair of Broncos wins, we're down to -3. I like that price, and will lay the 3.


Rams (-3) at Falcons: The Falcons are dead, and should start trading any worthwhile players set to hit free agency this offseason. Meanwhile, I think the Rams will have a little juice in the short-term after making the big Jalen Ramsey acquisition.


Dolphins at Bills (-17): The Dolphins are so bad that they're three-score underdogs to the freaking Bills, and I'm still not going to touch it.


Jaguars (-3.5) at Bengals: The Jaguars' players now know that their front office is no longer in on this season. Against almost any other opponent, I'd be picking against them.


Vikings (-1.5) at Lions: This is a pretty important game in what has shaped up to be a very competitive NFC North. In fact, the NFC North has the best collective point differential in the NFL:

  1. NFC North: +103
  2. NFC West: +64
  3. AFC South: +18
  4. AFC West: +10
  5. NFC South: -24
  6. AFC East: -36
  7. AFC North: -60
  8. NFC East: -75

All of the Lions' games have been won or lost by no more then 4 points. I'll take the 1.5.


Raiders at Packers (-4.5): Are the Raiders actually good? I'm surprised that's even a question after (a) their recent history, (b) their odd roster moves, (c) watching them on Hard Knocks, and (d) the disastrous situation that was Antonio Brown. But here we are. Obviously, I'm taking the Packers at home, but beware of what seems like a pretty favorable Packers (-4.5) line. The Raiders are coming off their bye, and they have an impressive two-game winning streak over a pair of good teams in the Colts and Bears. I would just stay away.


Texans at Colts (-1): The Colts only scored 19 points and still managed to beat the Chiefs on the road a couple weeks ago. I like their chances here with Frank Reich having a couple weeks to scheme up a good game plan. Barring a highly unlikely tie (especially in a game coached by Reich) a (-1) line is basically the same thing as picking the Colts to win, which I'll do.


Cardinals at Giants (-3): I picked the Cardinals on BGN Radio this week, but (in Mayor Quimby voice) "I am flip-flopping. Yaaaay!"


49ers (-10) at Washington: This is great:



Chargers at Titans (-2): Why do you insist on fooling me every year, Chargers? Ugh, I'll still pick you again against this trash Titans team, I guess.


Saints at Bears (-3.5): The Saints' defense has been excellent since Drew Brees went down, and Teddy Bridgewater, while certainly not a quarterback you want starting, is beginning to play better. I'll trust Sean Payton all day over Matt Nagy.


Ravens at Seahawks (-3.5): The Seahawks' swarming speed on defense should be able to neutralize Lamar Jackson, and make him throw.


Eagles at Cowboys (-3): The Eagles and Cowboys are both coming off bad losses to the Vikings and Jets, respectively. More accurately, the Eagles are coming off a bad loss, while the Cowboys are coming off three bad losses.

Both teams are also quite banged-up. That's nothing new for the Eagles, who are used to playing short-handed. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are coming off a season in 2018 in which they didn't often need to dive into their depth chart. That has changed this season, as both of their starting offensive tackles are now hurt, and they may be without stud WR Amari Cooper, not to mention maybe also two of their top three corners and a starting DT.

It is imperative that the Eagles' pass rush take advantage of a weakened Dallas offensive line, and affect Dak Prescott. I believe they will. I mean, both starting tackles could be out! If so, how is Dallas favored by 3?


Patri*ts (-10) at Jets: The Patri*ts are cheaters, and whatnot.

Animal vs. animal matchups

There are three this week:

1) Rams vs. Falcons: OK, so this isn't a ram, but I feel like this is all they can really do, fight-wise, with the exception that they also have horns.

"Feel that in the thigh meat, player," lol. "Where are you going, tight pants?"

Anyway, that style of attack is useless against a bird, which as our Matt Mullin pointed out previously, could just peck out the ram's eyes.

2) Jaguars vs. Bengals: An adult bengal tiger is about 500 pounds. An adult jaguar is around 200 pounds. I'll take the bengal, please.

3) Ravens vs. Seahawks: So what even is a "seahawk?" Per

Actually, there is no such thing. No ornithologist would refer to them as such. (They don’t even spell it as one word.) Some people, though, consider “sea hawks” to be a nickname for ospreys or skuas.
So is their logo actually an osprey or a skua?

Once again, nope. Look close enough and you’ll see that the thickness of the bill is all wrong, not to mention the wild purples, blues, and greens bear no resemblance to the browns and blacks of Ospreys.

But scientific accuracy wasn’t really the point. In reality, the logo is nod to one of the Seattle region’s many Native communities—the Kwakwaka’wakw nation. The many brightly colored ceremonial masks of the Kwakwaka’wakw each had their own ritual or religious meaning. One in particular was the “transformation” mask; it’s painted like a “thunderbird,” a quasi-mythological version of an eagle. The team’s helmets reference the thunderbird mask, opening and closing like raptor beaks. (According to the Seahawks website, Taima means "thunder," though it's unclear in what language.)

I would research whether an osprey could beat up a raven or vice versa, but I don't think it's necessary. Instead, the Seahawks lose this matchup and all henceforth animal matchups, because they don't even exist. Jimmy hath ruled.

Survivor pool pick

If you're just copying my picks each week, congratulations! You're still alive. We juuuuusssst got by on Monday night with a narrow Packers win over the Lions. Thanks, awful officiating! This week is easy. Take the Bills.

Teams already used: 

  1. Week 1: Eagles
  2. Week 2: Ravens
  3. Week 3: Cowboys
  4. Week 4: Chargers
  5. Week 5: Patri*ts
  6. Week 6: Packers

BYES: Browns, Steelers, Buccaneers, Panthers.

• Picks against the spread: Chiefs (-3), Lions (+1.5), Colts (-1), Saints (+3.5), Eagles (+3).

• Eagles picks: 2-4

• 2019 season, straight up: 48-44-1 (0.525)
• 2019 season, ATS: 18-13 (0.581)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 5 years, ATS: 182-145-6 (0.556)

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