June 08, 2023
Once again, it’s horse racing season — assuming the wildfire smoke clears ahead of this weekend’s final leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont Stakes is the longest of the three legs making much tougher for any horse that struggled on shorter tracks. Once again with different winners in each of the first two legs, we will not have a race for the Triple Crown this year, but still this nine-horse field offers plenty of value. A notable absence this week is Kentucky Derby winner Mage, however Preakness winner National Treasure lines up as 5-1 favorite at the 4 post.
Let’s look at the best bet on the board along with some fade advice for this year’s Belmont Stakes!
The best way to play the extra length on the track is to fade any horse that struggled in the Derby. Tapit Trice simply doesn’t have the endurance to last the extra quarter mile in New York, and was rather fortunate to finish seventh at the Derby. Sitting as one of the top favorites at 3-1, this horse struggled to even be relevant at a track significantly shorter than the one on Saturday. It’s a giant ask. Much like in any sport — horse or human — with trend, we are asking someone or thing to do something they simply haven’t shown they can do. That’s not a great money-making strategy, especially with great value on this board.
The best advice would be to stay as far away from Tapit Trice as you can and watch the horse flame out along with any sucker holding that ticket.
Before looking at the number one bet on the board, why not take a longer shot at a huge payout. All the way down at the 9th post sits a 15-1 long shot named Red Route One. We saw a near Show at the Preakness, but they settled for a fourth-place finish. While it was the shortest of tracks, and Red Route One has yet to race in the Belmont, he hits a couple of key racing metrics and fits for this track. We like to stay away from front-runners who burn out at this extra long track. There’s also a fine balance of staying away from deep closers, as the Belmont has the shortest stretch of the three tracks.
There’s a pretty decent chance Red Route One can let some of the group work themselves out of the race and hang on for the final push. At 15-1 it’s worth a shot to bet Red Route One to Win/Show (Come in first or top three) at the Belmont. Il Miracolo is the other long shot to glance over, but at 30-1 and an extra long rest between races, it’s hard to do anything. I’d place a smaller wager on Il Miracolo to win, but don’t expect much.
Ok, so what’s the big bet? While we won’t have a Triple Crown winner this year, we most likely will have a repeat victor. Bob Baffert is back and made his return thump with a resounding victory at the Preakness. We expect another big W on Saturday with his 5-1 National Treasure doing it again. The most telling sign was the way in which National Treasure won in Baltimore, holding off the Preakness field — specifically Blazing Sevens.
National Treasure jumped to an early lead right out of the post but saw that dwindle and needed to come from behind in order to win. There will be a couple of deep closers who will challenge any horse with the lead heading into the final stretch. It’s imperative to have an experienced jockey/trainer combo who understands that nuance, especially one headed by Baffert. The extra sprinkle of salt comes in the form of Baffert’s previous three winners at the Belmont. Each of them won prior at the Preakness – showing a comfort level with both the extra length and time off.
Bet National Treasure to Win at 5-1
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