September 22, 2025
Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images
The Phillies have some time to get their postseason roster and rotation set.
It's easy to sit on your couch and say just how you'd do it if you were an MLB manager.
Since I am lucky enough to write for a living, I'm going to do more than sit back and muse about who I'd pitch in Game 3, or who I'd bat leadoff. I'm going to map it out here — just in case Philly Rob needs a second opinion.
The Phillies are heading to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year. In 2022, they lost the World Series to the Astros. In 2023, they lost in the NLCS to the Diamondbacks. Last year, they imploded against the Mets in the NLDS.
Will this year buck the trend? The NL East champs are all but assured the 2-seed in the National League, and as a result will host either the Mets, Reds, Diamondbacks or Dodgers (the NL West leader who will face whichever of the three earns the final Wild card spot) in the NLDS when October arrives.
The team is getting healthier, and prior to a pair of stinkers in Arizona last weekend, it was playing its best baseball of the year.
Here are five thoughts I have as the team gets ready for October...
The Phillies have the best rotation in baseball by some — not all — metrics this season, and even without Zack Wheeler, who is getting surgery this week for his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, they have more starters than they can use in a short playoff series.
No team in the majors has had more quality starts this year (81 of them, 52% of starts). The rotation's 3.64 ERA is the second best in the NL and fourth best in MLB. They have the most innings pitched as a staff and by far the most strikeouts.
Cris Sánchez, a Cy Young candidate this year, looks like he'll be atop the rotation in the playoffs and manager Rob Thomson has said as much. But after him? Ranger Suárez is a lefty and so too is Jesús Luzardo. Is that too many south paws? What about the righty tandem of Taijuan Walker and Walker Buehler, who split a game in Arizona to good results? And how about Aaron Nola, the starter with by far the most postseason experience on the roster?
Here's how I'd thread this needle in both a five- and seven-game series (with days off after NLDS Games 1, 3 and 4, the Phils need just three starters). Assuming a series goes the full distance:
| NLDS | NLCS | WS | |
| Game 1 | Sánchez | Luzardo | Suárez |
| Game 2 | Suárez | Sánchez | Luzardo |
| Game 3 | Luzardo | Suárez | Sánchez |
| Game 4 | Sánchez | Nola | Nola |
| Game 5 | Suárez | Walker/Buehler | Walker/Buehler |
| Game 6 | Luzardo | Suárez | |
| Game 7 | Sanchez | Sánchez |
The off days dictate things quite a bit. But getting the most outings from their top three guys is the most important part. Unlike when they had zero depth back in 2022, they have Nola, Walker and Buehler ready to go in the middle of a longer series. Imagine if they had Wheeler, too?
The only starter on the roster that has gone more than 5.1 innings in a postseason game is Nola, which means the Phillies should expect the bullpen to play an even bigger starring role this postseason.
Last season, that role was essentially blowing it all to the Mets. The pen is better this year, thanks to the revamping that the front office did at the trade deadline. Here's how the latter half of a playoff game should be managed:
Emergency/long man situation: Walker or Buehler
6th inning: The Phillies will only be able to keep two of their three middle relievers when the postseason roster contracts from 28 to 26. Lou Trivino has been pretty solid in limited work this September and the team likes Max Lazar. Lefty Tim Mayza is the other option.
7th inning: Tanner Banks, David Robertson (lefty or righty depending on the situation)
8th inning: Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering (lefty or righty depending on the situation)
9th inning: Jhoan Duran
Trea Turner will be back this week and should be healthy for the postseason run. He's customarily been the team's leadoff hitter, but in his stead, trade deadline acquisition Harrison Bader has been red hot. Bader has hit .339 in 14 leadoff stints. It's a tough decision, but I would slide him down to the back of the batting order. Their three best hitters should hit first.
The Phillies' magic number to clinch the 2-seed and a bye into the NLDS stands at two right now — meaning that if they win at least two of their remaining six games against the lowly Marlins or Twins, or if the Dodgers lose at least two of their final six games against the contending Diamondbacks or Mariners, the Phillies earn the bye (or one Phillies win combined with one Dodgers loss will also do it).
With that 2-seed, the Phillies would face the winner of the 3-vs-6 Wild card series, which will be the Dodgers against either the Mets, Reds or Diamondbacks. Here's how I would rank those four potential opponents in order of preference:
Assuming the Phillies make good on the 96% chance (via baseball-reference) they have of being the 2-seed in October, they'll have five days off from September 29 until the NLDS in Philly on October 4. This is a good thing.
Yes, it's awkward, and it's more downtime than they even had for the All-Star break. But the Phillies have a lot of guys over 30, they have Turner, Bohm and Edmundo Sosa returning from recent injuries, and they have a pitching staff that will be relied on heavily to carry them when the offense is quiet.
It's one thing to be a streaking Wild Card playing streaky hot baseball, like the Phillies were in 2022 when they didn't have the bye and didn't need it. But this is a different situation and few teams will benefit from the off days more.
They should be working out and scrimmaging throughout the week, but getting their ducks in a row and resting is going to be a feature, not a bug this year.
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