October 15, 2019
About half of the regular season for most fantasy football leagues is now in the rearview, and it's probably fair to say that things haven't gone exactly as expected.
Several players taken in early rounds, like Saquon Barkley, have spent considerable time injured while others, like JuJu Smith-Schuster just aren't getting expected results.
Just for curiosity's sake, we decided to redraft the first four rounds with the gift of hindsight to help us. We tried to have the quarterbacks drafted as realistically as possible with relative value compared to the FLEX positions. We also decided to use total points instead of points per game to highlight the importance of a player staying healthy.
Keep in mind, this is based on the results of the first six weeks of games. Going forward there are a lot of factors (like the eventual return of Drew Brees, or the Melvin Gordon factor in L.A.) that make the draft positions below in flux going forward.
Still, seeing how your team measures up and comparing the current value with the pre-season ADP is an enriching exercise:
(Points are based on a .5 PPR league with standard scoring)
(** denotes player had a bye week — eight teams have had one so far)
In our mock first round re-do, just one player — David Johnson — performed worse than his average draft position. Chris Godwin, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones and the trio of quarterbacks we have going 10-through-12 well over performed, while players like Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas and Ezekiel Elliott were drafted relatively close to their actual value through six weeks.
|14||Mark Ingram II||98.80||34.6|
In the second pack of 12 picks, Austin Hooper stands out as the top tight end thus far — a player who went close to Round 9 in drafts this summer. D.J. Chark has been one of the top fantasy wideouts this year and was not drafted in most leagues. Julio Jones, Leonard Fournette, Keenan Allen and Chris Carson have all performed pretty close to their average draft slot.
|34||Will Fuller IV||78.90||84.4|
Still not a lot of under-performers on this list, save for Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes and James Conner. It's interesting to see the first rookie of the draft in Terry McLaurin — something no one could have predicted pre-season. Mahomes is surprisingly the fifth best QB so far from a fantasy perspective.
Kyler Murray has definitely exceeded expectations, while several highly drafted players like Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley are clearly not producing.
It's also worth mentioning that there are three skill players who played one less game due to their team having a bye who nearly made the top 48. They are Matt Brieda (61 points), Kerryon Johnson (61) and Allen Robinson (65).
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