July 06, 2019
It's July 6, and I happened to come across the following MVP odds from the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, so what the hell, let's take a look. These are, you know, real odds, as opposed to others that circulate on Twitter and elsewhere. Of course, they're a couple weeks old, but shut up:
NFL MVP up @SuperBookUSA @WestgateVegas thanks to our great NFL trade team spearheaded by NFL aficionado @llased. Enjoy. pic.twitter.com/w8nwY6NGQM
— John Murray (@vegasmurray) June 26, 2019
In case you can't read all that, let's clean it up a bit, and put them in order, starting with the guys with 80/1 odds or better:
| Player | Odds (as of 6/25/19) |
| Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs | 4/1 |
| Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers | 8/1 |
| Andrew Luck, QB, Colts | 8/1 |
| Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles | 10/1 |
| Drew Brees, QB, Saints | 10/1 |
| Tom Brady, QB, Patriots | 12/1 |
| Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers | 14/1 |
| Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks | 14/1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers | 25/1 |
| Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons | 25/1 |
| Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns | 25/1 |
| Jared Goff, QB, Rams | 60/1 |
| Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans | 60/1 |
| Cam Newton, QB, Panthers | 60/1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys | 60/1 |
| Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions | 80/1 |
| Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints | 80/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers | 80/1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers | 80/1 |
| Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings | 80/1 |
| Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants | 80/1 |
My best buys among the players with 80/1 odds or better:
• Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles, 10/1: The Eagles' offense is loaded, and in spring practices, Wentz looked a whole lot like the quarterback he was in 2017. Of course, all "If he can stay healthy" disclaimers apply, but even though he has the fourth-shortest odds, I still like him at 10/1.
• Tom Brady, QB, Patriots 12/1: He's old as hell and Gronk is gone, but Brady is still really good, he plays in an absolutely garbage division, and the Patriots/Brady always have the built-in advantage of being the cheatingest bunch of cheaters who ever cheated.
• Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns, 25/1: I can't believe he's this low. The Browns have a ton of weapons on offense, and Mayfield looked like he was the real deal last year. Additionally, from a storyline perspective that the dopey voters will eat up, if the Browns can win the AFC North (which they are favored to do in some places), Mayfield will get a ton of added credit for turning the Browns' franchise around.
• Jared Goff, QB, Rams: I'm not a huge fan of Goff's game, but the Rams still have an explosive offense, and 60/1 is pretty juicy.
And then there were a slew of guys with 100/1 odds:
| Player | Odds (as of 6/25/19) |
| Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys | 100/1 |
| Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers | 100/1 |
| Sam Darnold, QB, Jets | 100/1 |
| Sony Michel, RB, Patriots | 100/1 |
| Aaron Donald, DT, Rams | 100/1 |
| Khalil Mack, Edge, Bears | 100/1 |
| Von Miller, Edge, Beoncos | 100/1 |
| J.J. Watt, DE, Texans | 100/1 |
| Joey Bosa, Edge, Chargers | 100/1 |
| Melvin Ingram, Edge, Chargers | 100/1 |
| Myles Garrett, Edge, Browns | 100/1 |
| Antonio Brown, WR, Raiders | 100/1 |
| Derek Carr, QB, Raiders | 100/1 |
| Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers | 100/1 |
| Julio Jones, WR, Falcons | 100/1 |
| Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals | 100/1 |
| Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens | 100/1 |
| Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans | 100/1 |
| Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers | 100/1 |
| Michael Thomas, WR, Saints | 100/1 |
| Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers | 100/1 |
| Nick Chubb, RB, Browns | 100/1 |
| Odell Beckham, WR, Browns | 100/1 |
| Todd Gurley, RB, Rams | 100/1 |
| Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs | 100/1 |
My best buys among the 100/1 guys:
• Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 100/1: I mean, admit it. 100/1 is pretty good for a guy who will be absurdly hyped if he has a good season. He has the same odds as Derek Carr and Jameis Winston, somehow.
• Aaron Donald, DT, Rams 100/1: If you're going to waste your money taking a defensive player, of which there are many in the 100/1 group, Donald is the best bet, in my opinion.
• Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 100/1: If you have money to burn, why not? I think he'll be fun to watch, at a minimum.
And finally, the long shots:
| Player | Odds (as of 6/25/19) |
| Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears | 200/1 |
| Nick Foles, QB, Jaguars | 200/1 |
| Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles | 200/1 |
| Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers | 200/1 |
| Luke Kuechly, LB, Panthers | 200/1 |
| Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Cowboys | 200/1 |
| Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos | 200/1 |
| Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings | 200/1 |
| Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs | 200/1 |
| A.J. Green, WR, Bengals | 200/1 |
| Aaron Jones, RB, Packers | 200/1 |
| Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings | 200/1 |
| Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys | 200/1 |
| Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams | 200/1 |
| Davante Adams, WR, Packers | 200/1 |
| David Johnson, RB, Cardinals | 200/1 |
| Derrick Henry, RB, Titans | 200/1 |
| Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons | 200/1 |
| James Connor, RB, Steelers | 200/1 |
| Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals | 200/1 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers | 200/1 |
| Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots | 200/1 |
| Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars | 200/1 |
| George Kittle, TE, 49ers | 300/1 |
| Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings | 300/1 |
| T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts | 300/1 |
| Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles | 300/1 |
| Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears | 300/1 |
Best buys among the long shots:
• Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears, 200/1: How is he at 200/1 and guys like Mariota, Winston, and Carr at 100/1? I actually love Trubisky as a deep long shot play at 200/1.
• David Johnson, RB, Cardinals, 200/1: Running backs have a huge hurdle to clear to win MVP awards over quarterbacks, but if there's a one that I like, it's Johnson. He's still very talented, he has a coach that opposing defensive coordinators will have to figure out initially, and if there's a position player in a circumstance to carry a terrible team to an unlikely divisional championship in what I feel is an overrated division, it's him.
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