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December 16, 2022

Mailbag: If the Eagles clinch the 1 seed early, how soon should they rest starters?

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121622JalenHurtsGardnerMinshew Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

Jalen Hurts and Gardner Minshew

Earlier this week, we solicited questions for an Eagles mailbag via Twitter. Thank you as always for doing half the work for me. This will be Part I of a two-part mailbag.

Question from @michaelgsilver: Not to jinx anything, but suppose the Birds take care of business the next two weeks and have the No. 1 seed sewn up going into the Week 16 Saints game. Obviously they benefit from a Saints loss (re: draft order). Do they play their starters? And for how long? Put them in if they're losing?

The draft is probably the most important method of acquiring players that will help put you in a position to win the Super Bowl, but it's one of many. Obviously, winning the Super Bowl is the ultimate goal, and right now, that goal is right in front of the Eagles. 

In my opinion, the Eagles have to put all of their efforts behind winning a Super Bowl, right now. I'm sure that their analytics nerds will dissect that debate from every angle imaginable, and it will be discussed among every department in the organization (front office, coaching staff, etc.), and if they feel that resting starters for two games to close the season is what gives them the best chance of winning a Super Bowl this season, then that is what they should do, even if it means that a potential loss to the Saints hurts their draft positioning with that pick. 

Having said that, if they were to rest starters against the Saints, and then again against the Giants Week 18, and then have their bye during the wildcard round of the playoffs, by the time they play a game in the divisional round it will have basically been a month since they tried to win a football game. There's risk in the team losing its edge.

Personally, I'd probably lean toward playing starters against the Saints, and then hoping to get them out at some point during the second half. If a player gets hurt and it's not season-ending there's a reasonable enough chance that they'll be good to go for the playoffs.

Question from @SteadPA: Should Eagles fans root for an Eagles loss on Christmas Eve? It's hard to beat a team three times in one season.

The short answer is "God no, are you kidding?" Beat Dallas, earn the 1 seed, and get some extra rest.

But also, I think that's a little bit of a myth. Prior to the 2020 playoffs, ProFootballTalk looked at the results of playoff matchups between one team that swept another in the regular season. 

The team that accomplished the sweep has a record of 20-12 in the playoff game. When playing at home, the team that swept that opponent has a record of 17-7.

Since that article was published, the Saints lost to the Bucs after sweeping them in the 2020 regular season, though they were the road team in that playoff matchup. In 2021, the 49ers swept the Rams, but then lost to them in playoffs. Once again, the Niners were the road team.

So now the overall record is 20-14, with the sweeping team remaining at 17-7 when they play the playoff game at home.

Question from @whatshis40: Please paint me a picture of the worst way this Eagles season can (realistically) end.

Do you really want these scenarios out in the universe?

I think the worst scenario for the Eagles is if Jalen Hurts plays some sort of horrendous game and then also suffers some sort of late, bad injury after the game after it is already out of reach, kinda-sorta like Ryan Howard. And then the debate all offseason is whether or not the Eagles should now draft a quarterback with the Saints pick.

And then of course if that were to happen against the Cowboys or the Carson Wentz-led Commanders (as in, Wentz somehow got his starting job back), and then that team went on to win the Super Bowl, then that would probably not be easy for Eagles fans to stomach.

(Don't blame me for traveling down this path — I was merely answering a question.)

Question from @thebigseb31213: You write more than most about RB workload and its impact on their performance as a season/career goes on, such as Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott. Are the Eagles overworking Miles Sanders during the regular season? Are they riding him into the ground in anticipation of not re-signing him?

Christian McCaffrey was another favorite of mine to point out as well.

Sanders has already eclipsed his season high for carries in a season, at 204. His previous high was 179, in his rookie season. He had 229 total touches his rookie year because he had 50 receptions, so he has not yet reached that total yet this season. He only has 222 total touches in 2022 (17 per game), which ranks ninth in the NFL. He's nowhere near other backs like Josh Jacobs (313 touches), Derrick Henry (301) and Barkley (293).

Part of the reason Sanders' workload is a little heavier this season is because he hasn't yet gotten hurt. But I don't think the offensive staff has overused him. He has only gone over 20 carries in a game twice this season. By comparison, Barkley went over 20 carries in six of the Giants' first nine games (he went over 30 twice), and it's pretty clear to see that he isn't the same player now that he was earlier in the season.

I think Sanders' workload has been fine. And actually, over the last seven games, he has averaged just 14.1 carries per game. Part of that is because the Eagles have been mindful about getting Boston Scott in the game when they have had comfortable leads.

It's probably also worth noting that Sanders is playing the best football of his life right now, so he is obviously feeling pretty good.

Question from @TripleCeePee: Dillard is the backup LT but now also has snaps at LG and RG. Is he becoming more versatile? Is there any way he's an Eagle next year? Or does the prospect of more money and/or a starting LT gig elsewhere (even with a poor team) make that impossible?

Barring some devastating injury to Jordan Mailata down the stretch, Dillard is as good as gone. He's highly likely to attract decent money in free agency in a league that is desperate for offensive line help. I imagine he'll start at LT for someone next season.

As for the versatility question, I think you can play Dillard at left guard, and he can be fine in pass protection, especially against quicker DTs, but he's not going to move defensive tackles in the run game. You wouldn't ever really want him starting at guard, but he's capable enough at this point to fill in there, in-game. 

Question from vonar_town: If Lane Johnson shuts down Micah Parsons again and actually plays the whole game, will people finally acknowledge that first Dallas game was as close as it was because he was out?

I think the way the Eagles played the Dallas game was a lesson learned for this staff. They absolutely smashed the Cowboys in the first half, and then took their foot off the gas before the first half was even over, partly because Johnson got hurt. To answer your question, yes, the offense looked a lot different in that game when Johnson played, and when he didn't, and the reason why was because the play calling became ultra-conservative.

The Johnson point aside, I think that if the Eagles find themselves in another position in which they get a comfortable lead on Dallas (or anyone else in the playoffs, for that matter), they should continue to attack. They have the best offense in the NFL, and should trust that they can continue to put points on the board while also not turning it over. That's not the tact that they took in that earlier game against Dallas.

Question from @TagD22: The Eagles love to build in the trenches with high draft picks. Could they be targeting Peter Skoronski (or another tackle) as a replacement for Lane Johnson with the Saints' pick?

Johnson is on record as saying he'd like to play another couple of years after this season before he calls it a career.

I don't think you draft a "tackle only" type of player (like Andre Dillard) to eventually replace him this early. However, I do think that it would make some sense to draft a right tackle of the future if he can also start at guard in the interim, like the Eagles attempted with Shawn Andrews back in the day. I think a guy like Paris Johnson (Ohio State) would make some sense as that type of guy, since he has experience both at tackle and guard.

Question from @OfficeLinebcker: For Hassan Reddick, 10 sacks for three different teams in 3 years is nice, but why hasn’t he stuck in any one place? I've never heard of any off the field or locker room issues with him. Just money?

He's well-liked in the locker room, and has always been super polite with us media types, so you are indeed correct that he does not have any character concerns.

In Reddick's first three seasons in Arizona, he only had 7.5 sacks. As such, they did not exercise his fifth-year option. When teams don't exercise that fifth-year option, they're sort of telling the player they no longer value them highly, and it becomes much more likely that player will move on. In his final year there in 2020, he had 12.5 sacks, 7.5 of which came in a three-game stretch at the end of the season. 

Perhaps teams around the league were worried that he hadn't shown enough consistency yet to give him a huge contract during the 2021 offseason, and he ended up signing for a steal of a deal in Carolina for 1 year, $6 million. Obviously, he had another big season there, and then decided to play where he grew up as a kid.

I think you have the green light to just go ahead and enjoy him as a player, without worry.

Question from@TARiley3: Do the Eagles lead the league in fewest snaps by rookies? Could this be the fewest rookie snaps in Eagles history?

Without going team-by-team, I do not have data on rookie snap counts around the league, nor do I have some historical Eagles data on that, but yes, certainly the Eagles' rookies' snap counts are very low this season: 

Round Player Snaps (on O or D, STs omitted) 
Jordan Davis 175 
Cam Jurgens 33 
Nakobe Dean 31 
Kyron Johnson 18 
Grant Calcaterra 180 
UDFA Reed Blankenship 110 
UDFA Britain Covey 19 
UDFA Josh Jobe 12 
UDFA Josh Sills 
UDFA Cameron Dicker 
 TOTAL 10 players 578 


I was surprised to learn that Grant Calcaterra has played more snaps than Jordan Davis.

Question from @MattGrumbrecht: If you had to live with an NFL player for 6 months who would it be?

I wouldn't want to live with anyone outside of my family, but if I absolutely had to choose one player, I'd probably go with Rick Lovato, who is very quiet and has the cleanest locker on the team.


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