March 21, 2026
The Phillies have worn the NL East crown for the past two years, and while they'll be returning most of the group that's been good enough to take back-to-back division pennants and stay within regular October contention, the competition hardly ever leaves them be.
The Mets, once again, spent big to bounce back from their collapse last season, the Braves aren't too far removed from their former stranglehold on the division, and the Marlins and Nationals each, while still very much building themselves up, have often proven a thorn in the side of each of the former three clubs in various spots.
The Phillies should still be a good, postseason-caliber club in 2026, but their path through the NL East probably shouldn't be expected to be easy.
Here's a look at the projected wins, postseason and division odds, and the odds to win the World Series for each team in the NL East this year via FanGraphs:
| Team | Proj. Wins | Playoff Odds | Division Odds | World Series Odds |
| Mets | 89.7 | 80.5% | 37.2% | 7.8% |
| Braves | 89.4 | 78.7% | 35.1% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | 88.0 | 72.5% | 26.9% | 5.8% |
| Marlins | 74.9 | 6.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nationals | 68.2 | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
And some quick thoughts on each club...
• Going into 2026, it's easy to see what the Phillies are bringing to the table, even if it's been getting tedious.
Their starting pitching should be strong, thanks to a rotation that will now be led at the top by lefties Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo.
They're hoping they'll finally have a dependable bullpen, between getting a full season of Jhoan Duran as the closer, signing Brad Keller in the winter, and getting José Alvarado back from suspension, among other depth moves in the past few months.
And their lineup at the plate should still be threatening between the core of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper, even if it is a bit of a top-heavy order. The club is taking a gamble on Adolis García returning to 2023 form as their right fielder, too, while looking to get some youth from Justin Crawford as the expected center fielder.
Everything about the Phillies says they're still going to be a good team. The thing is, can they still be those extra couple of steps better to finally win a World Series? Fans have been waiting. They've only seen repeated NLDS defeats in 2024 and 2025, while realizing that the heart of this era of the franchise is only getting older. So how much time do they really have left?
• The Mets and Braves were both 89-win Wild Cards in 2024, then complete, underachieving and injury-ravaged disasters in 2025.
The Braves already got hit with the injury bug as soon as they reported for spring training last month, with starting pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep needing elbow procedures that will sideline both of them to begin the season, which will leave them leaning on Spencer Strider, who will be looking to bounce back from a 7-14, 4.45 ERA 2025, and Chris Sale, who will be 37 by the end of this month.
Similar to the Phillies, though, the Braves can still put together a formidable lineup of hitters so long as Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley can stay healthy.
The Mets lost slugger, and in a lost of respects the heart of their clubhouse, Pete Alonso in free agency, but swung back around with a pricey and risky signing of Bo Bichette that snatched him from the Phillies at the 11th hour, with Juan Soto returning to the outfield and Francisco Lindor as their MVP-level shortstop, though with the latter having to be mindful of recent surgery to the hamate bone in his left hand.
Their starting rotation can also eat up innings to give them a chance, but it won't often overpower anyone.
Those two components are what the Mets expect to work in their favor as they look to go after the Phillies. But what really might be their Achilles heel is a thin-looking bullpen. Look, when you have to make a decision of whether to give a spot to a 37-year-old Craig Kimbrel, that's not a good sign.
• There isn't too much cause to be fearful of the Marlins or the Nationals yet, and maybe not for a couple more years, at least.
They're both developing teams, and both have some promising names on the rise – like CJ Abrams and James Wood for the Nats, and Xavier Edwards for Miami – but they're largely expected to occupy the bottom of the division standings, while maybe causing the Phils, Braves, and Mets a few headaches while they're at it.
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