March 04, 2026
We're a few weeks away from meaningful baseball again. There's no time in sports that has more optimism than March.
Ignoring, for a second, the impending NFL free agency and draft — times of the year in the football calendar that welcome good vibes and high hopes, and forgetting for a moment that the Philly area has been absent quality college basketball for a few years ahead of March Madness — baseball's spring training is a time of opportunity ahead of warming weather and blooming flowers.
See, we just mentioned blooming flowers in a sports article. It's all about the good feelings right now.
So what will each of the Phillies' key players accomplish this coming season? We've compiled a list with a bold prediction (most of them on the positive side) for 20 key names. These are bold, many of them big swings. So we'll reach for the stars — or for total disaster — as we count down the days until the Phillies return north to South Philly.
• J.T. Realmuto, catcher: He won't catch 134 games again this year but he'll improve his power numbers (last year 12 homers and 52 RBI). Let's go with, 16 home runs and 60 RBI.
• Bryce Harper, first base: He's wrecking in spring training, a man possessed after Dave Dombrowski's "not elite" comments. He's done it before — see Orlando Arcia — and maybe he's got a little Jordan in him.
michael jordan and I took that personally pic.twitter.com/tD7pwkGDPp
— reactions (@reactjpg) May 28, 2020
Harper will be in the MVP conversation and hit 30 homers and 100 RBI. Book it.
• Bryson Stott, second base: He's mashing the ball to open spring training and he's looking fully healthy. The former first-round pick is going to finally live up to the hype with a breakout year. He had a really solid 4.3 WAR season in 2023, his second. He'll hit 6.0 by the end of the year.
• Trea Turner, shortstop: Sort of under the radar in 2025, Turner finished fifth in NL MVP voting and won the league's batting title. He'll sniff both of those accolades again in 2026.
• Alec Bohm, third base: He's been the subject of incessant trade rumors for more than two full years. With free agency looming many are expecting he's traded at the deadline — but that's not what contending teams do. Bohm will make it to October with the Phillies, he'll have a solid season, and then he'll walk in free agency.
• Adolis García, right field: After hitting 39 homers in 2023, García hit just 44 combined in the last two seasons. Revitalized and in a hitter's stadium in Citizens Bank Park, he'll blast 30 home runs again.
• Justin Crawford, center field: The recent first-round pick is looking comfortable against major league pitching this spring and it'll translate to the regular season. The Phillies will finally have their staple in the outfield and Crawford will hit close to .300 over the entire season. He'll be in the mix for Rookie of the Year.
• Brandon Marsh, left field: Marsh's struggles against lefties and a lack of other left field options will come to a head before the trade deadline, and the Phillies will add a big name to make a postseason push (Byron Buxton?).
• Edmundo Sosa, util: As he always does, Sosa will be rock solid filling in wherever needed and will choose to walk in free agency when some other team offers to pay him to start everyday.
• Otto Kemp, util: The Phils' love affair with Kemp will go the path of Scott Kingery. The young utilityman will be out of the majors by the fall as he proves to be a liability when at the plate.
• Zack Wheeler, starting pitcher: Wheeler will be his old self, start 28-30 games, and have an ERA below 3. He has two seasons left and he'll make them count.
• Cris Sánchez, starting pitcher: It's hard to be bold when the player is a total stud. Sánchez will finish with another top 3 Cy Young performance and will prove to be one of best value signings in team history — he's in the middle of a bargain four-year, $22.5 million deal right now.
• Jesús Luzardo, starting pitcher: It wasn't a loud season for Luzardo, who sneakily received Cy Young votes for his 2025, but he's as good as a No. 3 starter can get in the rotation and he'll pitch like the best number three in the game.
• Aaron Nola, starting pitcher: After a ugly, injury-laden 2025 that saw him earn a 6.01 ERA over 17 starts, we are expecting the veteran to revert to the mean again. He will be a solid No. 4 with an ERA in high 3's, pitching a healthy 30 starts.
• Andrew Painter, starting pitcher: The highly touted rookie isn't going to be a world beater — at least not to start — like Paul Skenes or some other recent first-year breakouts. But he has a ton of talent and has learned a lot over the last few years struggling to return from Tommy John surgery. Painter will have a solid 25-to-28 starts with a respectable ERA in the 3s and earn a solid role in the rotation for years to come.
• Jhoan Duran, closer: It's hard to really be bold with one of the best closers in baseball. He'll do it again, have an ERA under 2, make the All-Star team and demand a monster contract extension.
• Brad Keller, setup: The Phillies have had mixed luck signing setup men in recent years. Keller's track record is extremely hit or miss. This season will, sadly, be a miss. He hasn't put back-to-back good seasons together in his eight-year MLB career and really has only ever had three of them:
| Season | Stats |
| 2018* | 9-6, 3.08 ERA |
| 2019* | 7-14, 4.19 ERA |
| 2020* | 5-3, 2,47 ERA |
| 2021* | 8-12, 5,39 ERA |
| 2022* | 6-14, 5,09 ERA |
| 2023* | 3-4, 4.57 ERA |
| 2024 | 0-4, 5.44 ERA |
| 2025 | 4-2, 2.07 ERA |
| 2026 | ? |
• José Alvarado, setup: After his suspension and injuries last season he'll struggle and the Phillies will need a lefty specialist at deadline.
• Orion Kerkering, reliever: Kerkering is a great pitcher and an even better guy, but it's really hard to come back from the trauma of his NLDS-ending blunder in October. The righty will never be the same — he has a career 2.79 ERA. He will be fine, with an ERA in the low 4 range, but he'll be an average middle reliever by the end of the season.
• Rob Thomson, manager: Thomson held the Phillies together with a blood clot to his best pitcher, his outfielder bringing a beer into the locker room in Miami, and the never-relenting Philadelphia fan base and media. The team won 96 games last season and Manager of the Year is a regular season award — he should have won it last year. If the Phillies increase their wins yet again in 2026 he'll be the actual Manager of the Year.
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