March 20, 2024
After an unprecedented run of success at the end of the aughts that saw the Phillies win five straight NL East races, the Fightins have yet to grab the divisional crown since. The Phillies' ensuing playoff drought was nauseating for a fan base that had just watched such consistent greatness with big game hitters, superstar pitchers and deep October runs.
The Phillies broke that accursed playoff-less streak back in 2022 as they reached the World Series. They were a single game from getting back there last fall. The Phils have proved that their style of baseball with clutch home runs and timely pitching plays well in the postseason, perhaps even more so than it does during the dog days of the summer, with these past two Wild Card berths. They've laughed as 100-win "juggernauts" got eliminated with ease as a frequently infuriating team went supernova at the plate against the would-be championship contenders.
The 2022 and 2023 Phillies had rollercoaster regular seasons before igniting in the postseason. Can they actually hit the 95-win mark though in 2024 and be in a spot to win the NL East outright?
Here are the over/under win totals and NL East odds for the five divisional teams via FanDuel Sportsbook:
| Team | O/U Win Total | NL East Odds |
| Braves | 101.5 | -290 |
| Phillies | 89.5 | +330 |
| Mets | 80.5 | +1200 |
| Marlins | 77.5 | +2700 |
| Nationals | 66.5 | +12000 |
The biggest threat standing in front of them, of course, is Atlanta. The Braves won the NL East the last six seasons, including a championship win in 2021. The Phils have bested them in the NLDS each of the past two years, however, as the baseball community melted down about a playoff format that saw 100-win teams going down with the regularity. We're not talking about October just yet though. Atlanta is constructed to be a ruthlessly efficient, consistent regular season machine.
Looking at FanGraphs' 2024 projection model, Atlanta is the clear-cut favorite in the division with 12 more projected wins than the second place Phillies:
| Team | Record | Run Differential |
| Braves | 97-65 | +163 |
| Phillies | 85-77 | +36 |
| Marlins | 80-82 | -5 |
| Mets | 80-82 | -6 |
| Nationals | 66-96 | -153 |
FanGraphs numbers typically skew a little conservative. The Phillies are better than an 85-win team. An infuriating Phillies team won 87 games in 2022 before forever stealing the city's heart in the playoffs. They won 90 alone last year. Winning 90 games is going to send them right back to the postseason where they'll have a puncher's chance of out-scoring anyone and everyone, but getting closer to the mid-90s with potential regression from Atlanta's all-time great offense is what it'll take to make it a true September race for the NL East.
Looking further at the division, Miami eked into the postseason in 2023 with just 84 wins. That's all you need sometimes, however, as Arizona won 84 games as well and made the World Series outright. The Mets were all-in to start the 2023 season and became sellers in a shorter amount of time than it takes to walk from Citizens Bank Park to the Broad Street Line. New York is retooling, which is just a code for half-assing their rebuild to appease all parties while being successful in nothing. The Nationals, down I-95, are a joke of a franchise that now watches Bryce Harper and Trea Turner star against their most hated team. That's an unfortunate turn of events!
Washington has been getting smoked relentlessly on the field essentially since the moment the team posted this in Aug. 2020:
Beating Philadelphia isn't as hard as Philadelphians say it is.#NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/sDhhsCSnAG
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) August 25, 2020
Rough stuff!
Anyway...
This is a two-team race and considering a "race" at all may be controversial. Atlanta is a steamrolling T-1000 which can be infinitely versatile while making quick work of opponents. The Phillies, on the other hand, are a group of happy-go-lucky mashers whose goals are measured by Bud Lights drank after every playoff round victory rather than the regular season wins.
Smart money says Atlanta wraps up the NL East for the seventh consecutive year. Gut feeling says Bryce Harper hits a Spencer Strider fastball to Fishtown in Game 3 of the NLDS at CBP this coming fall.
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