July 25, 2026
Eric Canha/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
A.J. Brown might lose more games with his new team than he has become accustomed to.
With NFL training camps about to kick off, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the league's win-loss over-unders. For the gambling degenerates, I'll name a few that I like. First, the over-unders (via DraftKings):
| Team | O/U | Team | O/U |
| Rams | 11.5 | Jaguars | 8.5 |
| Ravens | 11.5 | Vikings | 8.5 |
| Bills | 10.5 | Steelers | 8.5 |
| Bengals | 10.5 | Buccaneers | 8.5 |
| Lions | 10.5 | Panthers | 7.5 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 | Colts | 7.5 |
| Patriots | 10.5 | Saints | 7.5 |
| Eagles | 10.5 | Giants | 7.5 |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | Commanders | 7.5 |
| Bears | 9.5 | Falcons | 6.5 |
| Cowboys | 9.5 | Titans | 6.5 |
| Broncos | 9.5 | Browns | 5.5 |
| Packers | 9.5 | Raiders | 5.5 |
| Texans | 9.5 | Jets | 5.5 |
| Chargers | 9.5 | Dolphins | 4.5 |
| 49ers | 9.5 | Cardinals | 3.5 |
The Commanders won four games in 2023. In 2024, they won 12. That was the biggest win total improvement in the NFL from the 2023 season to the 2024 season. It tied for the 9th best improvement since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule. Here's a look at all the teams that have had improvements of 8 or wins in a season, and then what those teams did the year after their big improvements (again, since the NFL went to at least 16-game schedule):
| Team | Bad season | +8 season | Next season |
| 1998-2000 Colts | 3-13 | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| 2007-2009 Dolphins | 1-15 | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| 2015-2017 Cowboys | 4-12 | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| 2011-2013 Colts | 2-14 | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| 2012-2014 Chiefs | 2-14 | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| 1998-2000 Rams | 4-12 | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| 2003-2005 Steelers | 6-10 | 15-1 | 11-5 |
| 2018-2020 49ers | 4-12 | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| 1991-1993 Colts | 1-15 | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| 1996-1998 Jets | 1-15 | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| 2000-2002 Bears | 5-11 | 13-3 | 4-12 |
| 2003-2005 Chargers | 4-12 | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| 1987-1989 Bengals | 4-11 | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| 2014-2016 Panthers | 7-8-1 | 15-1 | 6-10 |
| 2023-2025 Commanders | 4-13 | 12-5 | 5-12 |
| 2024-2026 Jaguars | 4-13 | 13-4 | ??? |
| 2024-2026 Patriots | 4-13 | 14-3 | ??? |
Only the 1996-1998 Jets had an improvement once again after their initial breakout season. On average, the above teams experienced a decrease of 4.4 wins the following season.
Here were the best win total improvements in the NFL from 2024 to 2025:
• Patriots: +10
• Jaguars: +9
• Bears: +6
The team that reminds me the most of the 2025 Commanders is the Bears. Like the 2024 Commanders, the 2025 Bears played in a lot of wild games, often with lucky finishes. For the under to hit, the Bears only have to lose two fewer games. They play in a hard division and have a first-place schedule this season.
UNDER 9.5. ⬇️
In 2025, the Pats had about as easy a schedule as you can get.
Their six games against a bad AFC East aside, they played the following opponents (we'll leave the AFC East teams out of the following analysis since the Pats get to play them all again in 2026):
• The entirety of the NFC South, arguably the worst division in football. Combined record and point differential of those teams: 30-38, -225.
• The entirety of the AFC North, arguably the worst division in the AFC last year. Combined record and point differential: 29-39, -142.
• They finished in last place in the AFC East in 2024, so they had a fourth place schedule in 2025. The three last place teams they played in 2025 as a result were the Giants, Raiders, and Titans. Combined record of those three teams: 10-41, -443. Lol.
Add up all their non-AFC East opponents, and you get a combined record and point differential of 69-118, -810.
This year they play the entirety of the NFC North (38-29-1, +136), the AFC West (34-34, -39, but with the likely-to-rebound Chiefs), and their three first place opponents are the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Steelers (37-17, +339).
Add that all up, and you get a combined record of 109-80-1, +436.
In chart form:
| Patriots non-AFCE opponents | Record | Point differential |
| 2025 | 69-118 (0.369) | -810 |
| 2026 (based on 2025 record) | 109-80-1 (0.576) | +436 |
Credit the Pats for compiling a 14-3 regular season record and getting through some highly flawed teams in the playoffs (even if via some pretty ugly football), but they also wildly overachieved and the 2026 season is going to be far, faaar harder.
(Also, I think Drake Maye is being crowned a great quarterback a little prematurely.)
UNDER 10.5 ⬇️
The Cowboys are what I would call a good fantasy football team, in that they have some good players at the skill positions in QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, and WR George Pickens.
But, man, the rest of that roster has major issues. As we detailed in their dumpster fire post this year, they have no pass rush whatsoever, the corners got absolutely destroyed last season, and they whiffed on all their free agent targets at linebacker. And then on offense, although they have their share of guys who can make plays, they have one of the worst pairs of offensive tackles in the NFL.
It's a high-profile team with some high-profile players, but no real backbone. I don't see a double-digit win season here.
UNDER 9.5 ⬇️
UNDER 7.5 ⬇️
I guess I should pick some overs, too, huh? The Falcons are stuck in purgatory, but they have won at least seven games each of the last five years.
• 2025: 8-9
• 2024: 8-9
• 2023: 7-10
• 2022: 7-10
• 2021: 7-10
They have some talented players and they play in an awful division. An over-under of 6.5 games doesn't feel like a very high bar to clear. They should win 7 or 8 games again.
OVER 6.5 ⬆️
As noted above, the Jaguars are an example of a team that had a huge win total increase from 2024 to 2025. I normally don't like those teams, but unlike the Patriots and Bears the Jaguars aren't being overrated heading into this season. Their over-under is only 8.5.
But also, I just like the way they played last season, winning a lot of their games emphatically and finishing with a point differential of +138.
They're not going to win 13 games again like they did in 2025, but I like their chances of at least having a winning record, which is the bar they have to clear.
OVER 8.5 ⬆️
Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | thePhillyVoice
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
Add Jimmy's RSS feed to your feed reader
