OK, now try to lock in with me for a moment. That 2026 first-round pick the Cowboys got from Green Bay ended up being 20th overall, in a weak draft. The second round pick they traded to the Jets was 44th overall. By the draft value chart, the Cowboys gained around 390 points in draft capital on the picks involved in the 2026 draft.

The difference in draft capital between the two 2027 first round picks in the chart above — their own and the Packers — could very well end up being more than 400 points, since the Packers are likely to be decent enough again in 2026, and the Cowboys... aren't.

In other words, there's a reasonable enough chance that the Cowboys will have traded one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Parsons for a couple of aging DTs and a net loss in draft pick value.

Oh, and then they traded Osa Odighizuwa for not a lot.

Because they traded for Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark, the Cowboys felt the need to dump Odighizuwa's salary, so they traded him for a late third-round pick in a crappy draft. Odighizuwa has been a consistently disruptive interior pass rusher for the Cowboys the last four years. He's being replaced by older guys.

So who is left?

The Cowboys' most productive returning pass rusher is James Houston, who had 5.5 sacks last season.

They also traded a 2027 fourth-round pick for Rashan Gary, who is probably now their best pass rusher. Gary has zero double-digit sack seasons in his seven-year career. Like, if you were playing that 20-0 game and you were forced to pick Rashan Gary, you'd just reset it.

And actually, I tried to make that happen, and sure enough, the game said that Gary "HELD YOU BACK," lol.

3) The cornerbacks got roasted last season

The Cowboys' top returning cornerbacks this season, in whatever order you prefer, are DaRon Bland, Shavon Revel, Caelen Carson, and Reddy Steward. Here's how those guys fared when they were targeted in 2025:

To put that cumulative 109.6 opposing passer rating in context, Lamar Jackson has the highest career passer rating of all-time, at 102.2.

DaRon Bland is the CB1. He had a great rookie season in 2022 in which he picked off 5 passes. He followed that up with an amazing second season in 2023, when he had 9 INTs, 209 return yards, and 5 (!) pick-sixes. I mean, every year there are plenty of starting receivers who didn't even have 5 TDs. Bland was named first-Team All-Pro and he finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Frankly, it's ridiculous that he only finished fifth. He was rewarded with a four-year deal worth $90 million in new money, and is presently the seventh highest paid corner in the NFL.

The last two seasons, however, have not been great. Bland has missed 15 games, and his takeaway production has plummeted, with just 1 INT during that span. His 2025 season was rough.

That contract seemed fine at the time the Cowboys did it, but it is looking like a regretful decision these days.

The Cowboys did add Devin Moore in the fourth round of the draft and they signed Cobie Durant away from the Rams in free agency.

Durant's 2025 numbers are better than any of the Cowboys' returning corners, but the Rams (a) let him walk in free agency when he only got a one-year deal worth $4 million, and (b) they went as far as to trade a first-round pick for Trent McDuffie and then sign him for four years, $124 million. In other words, they pretty clearly were not satisfied with Durant's play last season, and made major moves to improve that position.

4) The linebackers are a concern, too

During free agency, the Cowboys were reportedly in on linebackers like Nakobe Dean — who would have been a perfect fit with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker — and Quay Walker. But neither player landed in Dallas. Losing Dean to the Raiders of all teams is a bad look, in my opinion, especially for a team that has delusionally prided itself on always landing the players it wants.

After whiffing on good linebackers in free agency, the Cowboys traded a fifth-round pick the 49ers for Dee Winters, a good backup but just a guy as a starter.

And, of course, they have DeMarvion Overshown, who tore an ACL in 2023 and shredded his knee (torn ACL, PCL, and MCL) in 2024. Overshown missed the first nine games of the 2025 season, and did not look like the same impactful player he has shown glimpses of when healthy. He also missed the final two games of the season with a concussion.

5) Christian Parker and Caleb Downs can only help so much (AKA the Cowboys don't have good players on defense)

The Cowboys had the worst defense in the NFL in 2025 by DVOA and any number of other metrics.

This offseason, they hired Christian Parker away from Philly, where he was the Eagles' defensive backs coach. Parker is deserving of a chance to be a defensive coordinator, and the Eagles' DBs will certainly miss him.

Parker and rookie Caleb Downs are the two people who have a realistic chance of making a difference on the Cowboys' defense this season. But let's be realistic. The rest of their additions aren't likely to move the needle. We're talking about guys like Cobie Durant, Jalen Thompson, Rashan Gary, etc. That ain't getting it done.

Parker is installing a new defense, and it'll no doubt be an improvement on the mess that Matt Eberflus was running. But ultimately, none of that matters if you don't have good players. And, well, the Cowboys don't have good defensive players.  

My conclusion: The Cowboys' defense will likely still be trash.

6) The tackles

The Cowboys were the No. 2 offense (yards per game) in the NFL in 2025, and honestly I don't know how they did that with these offensive tackles.

LT Tyler Guyton had a bad rookie season in 2024, and then an inconsistent season in 2025 before a Week 12 ankle injury ended his season. He was replaced in the lineup by Nate Thomas, who Brian Schottenheimer said will have a chance to compete against Guyton for the starting LT job.

Thomas stunk in relief of Guyton last season. He is not an NFL starter. So I would guess that Schottenheimer is just trying to put some pressure on Guyton to feel like he needs to win that job. But it's still not great that in Year 3 Guyton isn't already a good player.

At RT is Terence Steele, who got paid big money after one decent season years ago but has been a well below average starter since.

The Cowboys pretty badly needed to address their tackle position in the draft, but that got put on the back burner this year because they had to add to their atrocious defense.

7) The Cowboys have another high-profile contract situation, as always

Last offseason, the Cowboys traded a 2026 third-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Steelers for George Pickens and a sixth-round pick.

That trade was looking like a home run for a while, as Pickens was having a career year through the first 13 games of the season, as he had 73 catches for 1,142 yards and 8 TDs. However, in their aforementioned Week 14 loss to the Lions, the Cowboys needed Pickens to be the guy after CeeDee Lamb had to leave with a concussion. And how did he respond? He ran lazy routes and just generally looked disinterested. 

Afterward, he was called out for his poor effort both nationally and locally. And then in Week 15, in a bad home loss to the Vikings that effectively ended the Cowboys' season, Pickens kind of no-showed again, making 3 catches on 6 targets for 33 yards.

Ultimately, Pickens finished with 93 catches for 1,429 yards and 9 TDs, and was named Second-Team All-Pro. But he also left doubt on whether to commit to him long-term, given that he came up small in the two games that sunk the Cowboys' season.

Pickens was scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, and the Cowboys more or less had three choices to make with him:

1. Pay him the going rate of like $30+ million per season for an All-Pro wide receiver.
2. Franchise tag him. 
3. Lose him in free agency, with nothing to show for it other than maybe a comp pick.

They chose to franchise tag him. Pickens is too talented of a player to just let walk out the door, and also maybe not steady enough to commit huge money to over the next three to four years. So I kind of get it, in this case.

That said, over the last 15 years, the Cowboys have used the franchise tag more than any other team in the NFL (h/t Jon Machota):

• 2012: Anthony Spencer
• 2013: Anthony Spencer
• 2015: Dez Bryant
• 2018: DeMarcus Lawrence
• 2019: DeMarcus Lawrence
• 2020: Dak Prescott
• 2021: Dak Prescott
• 2022: Dalton Schultz
• 2023: Tony Pollard
• 2026: George Pickens

And, of course, they have had contract distractions with their three best players the last couple of offseasons, with Parsons, Prescott, and Lamb.

In many of those previous franchise tag examples — and so many other situations — the Cowboys should have just worked out long-term deals with their best players instead of holding them hostage and creating animosity.

Again, in this isolated case, I understand the logic of tagging Pickens, but man, as a fan, it has to be tiresome watching this organization nickel and dime their best players every year. And certainly, the threat of Pickens getting tagged again in 2027 exists. The Cowboys have double-tagged players three times in the last 15 years, which is kind of insane. That won't go over well if they try that with Pickens.

I don't know how this will play out. But what I do know is that Pickens has been plagued by effort issues in the past, and that was before he had reason to believe that he is being underpaid relative to his production.

8) Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense have failed to be consistently good

As noted above, Dak Prescott had a good season in 2025 and the Cowboys had the No. 2 offense in the NFL.

Meh. That's nothing new. The Cowboys have actually had top 4 finishes in total yards in four of the last seven seasons. Each time they've done that they have had a disappointing follow-up the next season:

You can bet that there were high expectations for the Cowboys' offense in 2020, 2022, and 2024. And sure enough, there are high expectations once again for 2026.

A common sentiment surrounding the Cowboys heading into this season is something to the effect of, "If the defense can just be league average they can contend." But that assumes the offense plays at the same level they did in 2025. Maintaining that level of play on offense is the part that's a lot harder, in my opinion, and there are plenty of reasons to believe the Cowboys should regress.

As noted above, the offensive tackles stink. George Pickens and Javonte Williams aren't likely to repeat their 2025 production. Prescott has been inconsistent from year to year, and he has missed at least five games in three of the last six seasons.

The WR duo of Lamb and Pickens is really good, obviously, but otherwise it's not as if this is some kind of juggernaut roster offensively. When Week 8 rolls around, people are going to be surprised that they're not playing to the standard they played at in 2025. They shouldn't be.

9) The Cowboys' second-place schedule is harder than the Eagles' first-place schedule

The NFC East teams all play each other twice, as you're aware, and in 2026 they play the entirety of the NFC West and the AFC South. They also each have three games on their schedules that their divisional rivals don't. The Eagles have a first-place schedule, and as such, they play first-place teams in the NFC North, the NFC South, and the AFC North. The Cowboys finished in second place, so they'll play the second-place teams in those divisions. And so on...

The NFC East teams drew the following floating opponents this year:

No matter what you think of the Eagles, we can all agree that all three NFC East teams are chasing them, right? And holy hell, that's about as easy a trio of first-place opponents as you'll ever find. I mean, one could argue that the Eagles' three floating opponents are every bit as easy as the Commanders' and Giants' third- and fourth-place floating opponents, much less the Cowboys' second-place opponents.

Certainly, the Cowboys' trio of the Packers, Bucs, and Ravens is a lot harder than the Bears, Panthers, and Steelers, right? That's a really tough draw for a team that only won seven games last year.

10) The Cowboys are the owner/GM's hobby, and an unserious franchise

Jerry Jones cares more about some of his other more lucrative businesses than the Cowboys. That's not an opinion, to be clear. Jones said so himself.

During the 2025 season, right around the trade deadline, Jones was the subject of an interview with the Wall Street Journal. The discussion centered around his interests in natural gas, not the Cowboys. And during that interview, Jones made pretty damning comments about where his priorities lie.

"There's $100 billion present value with gas out there," he said. "That's why I'm talking to you on the telephone rather than trying to fix our defense with the Dallas Cowboys."

Ooooooooof.

"There's not another manager in the NFL or any sport for that matter that would make that comment in light of what's happening with the team," Troy Aikman said thereafter, in an interview with 1310 The Ticket in Dallas. "I'm not totally surprised by it, but I can certainly understand the frustration by Cowboys fans. 

"That's been going on for a while. It is what it is. When you look at it, as the title general manager of the football team, I don't know that Jerry does what most general managers do. Most general managers are travelling around, going to games, watching players. They're certainly not doing oil and gas deals or sponsorship deals or things of that nature. 

"That's not news to anyone listening to this. It's unorthodox. It's not the way it's done. I think there are other people who handle more of the GM duties than what he does. But it was a comment that I'm sure he'd like to have back because it doesn't reflect well on the commitment to the football team."

Jones in fact did not wish to take those comments back. He instead doubled down on them, explaining that in order to run the Cowboys, he needs money from the other ventures.

If you're on social media, that Cameron Magruder guy has probably appeared on your timeline at some point, eternally expressing optimism for his Cowboys. Last week, Magruder proposed an interesting "What would you choose" scenario. Go to prison for 15 years, or go to prison until the Cowboys win a Super Bowl.

Imagine choosing to let the Cowboys determine your fate, and then watching from prison as Jerry Jones trades Micah Parsons and then says that he's too busy to fix the defense because he's closing oil and gas deals.