February 25, 2022
James Harden makes his Sixers debut on Friday night in Minnesota. Everyone loves to yell about Doc Rivers' rotations and why they're right or wrong. Why wait until the game is played to try to make a guess at how the Sixers might set up?
Looking at potential lineups is one of the last pieces of intrigue we have left before we see James Harden and Joel Embiid play together for the first time. From the outset, Doc Rivers has sent the message that he's going to try to keep the Sixers protected at all times, and the head coach sounds ready to break away from last year's strategy that relied on keeping Embiid and Simmons on the floor together as much as possible.
"James is such a veteran. Ben and Joel you were thinking more, you grow and be together on the floor as much as possible," Rivers said the night after the trade was completed, prior to the team's win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. "In this case, you're just going to try to figure out the best two guys, meaning between Tyrese and Tobias and Joel and James, to have on the floor, and who fits who. These are decisions and things I don't know yet."
Rivers doubled down on that notion at a practice in Minnesota on Thursday afternoon, so we can only assume that he will stick to his word on that front. Given that, here are some beliefs I am building this exercise around.
Offense > Defense. Broadly speaking, as my writing here has indicated over the years, I value defensive impact more than most people. But in this instance, I am dubious of Philadelphia's chances to be a high-level defense with the personnel they have on hand, and even if you set the team up in the exact optimal way defensively, the ceiling isn't super high to begin with. You have a small guard playing a critical role in the lineup, Harden's defensive issues are well-advertised, Tobias Harris isn't a stopper, and most of your bench players are below-average there, in some cases much worse than that.
If this team is going to win, they're going to win by being impossible to stop. A future version of this team might have the luxury to rely on a high-level defense, but this group basically needs Embiid to simply make sure they're "good enough" there to take advantage of their offensive strengths and win.
"Backup point guard" doesn't exist. There is absolutely no reason, save for injuries or the game being completely out of hand, for the Sixers to put a lineup on the floor without one of Maxey or Harden to handle the ball. Harden is the point guard for the team now, and Maxey will be the guy who takes over for him when he sits. A lot of decisions for the rotation flow from there, and that's why you'll ultimately see a nine-man rotation below rather than a 10-man.
One guy this impacts in a big way? Shake Milton. In my eyes, he's now competing with the bucket of players in secondary roles off-ball, a la Furkan Korkmaz or Isaiah Joe, instead of coming in as a second-unit leader. In theory, this could cut either way for Milton. He could theoretically thrive with less responsibility and more frequent catch-and-shoot looks, but Rivers might just prefer to have someone like Korkmaz or Joe on the floor instead to take advantage of their shooting off movement. This will probably be a battle that plays out over time and changes game to game, so if you see a guard/wing shooter in a lineup below, consider their names interchangeable.
(By the way, there are people who are going to want to anchor Embiid and Harden's minutes to one another, and while I don't think that's necessarily "wrong" to do, I do think they'll get plenty of time together even with staggering, making it unnecessary to attach them at the hip.
These are a guide, not hard and fast rules. Harden's arrival does not mean you want to throw out things that have worked in terms of how long to leave players in or how many minutes you want to play them. Embiid, for example, has had great success checking out after about the first nine minutes of the first quarter, but Rivers will roll with him for a full period if he's on a heater, which is especially true in the second halves of games.
All that in mind, let's get into it, and feel free to assume Doc Rivers will do something completely different when the Sixers hit the floor, rendering all of this meaningless.
The set it and forget it group: Embiid/Harris/Green/Harden/Maxey
The other day, we went over the potential starting groups and I threw cold water on the idea of Thybulle starting for this team. His inability to consistently make shots has empowered defenses to ignore him and send help toward Joel Embiid, junking up their offense a great deal. That's not something the Sixers want to have happen now that they have their co-stars in place and on the floor together.
The only thing that gives me pause about Green being the starter immediately after the break is that having to pivot out of this will be harder than the other way around, and I'm unsure how the Sixers can ultimately defend good teams on the perimeter if Thybulle fails as a starter/closer. If you go to Thybulle now and the offense is clunkier than you want, I think it's relatively easy to just drop Danny Green into that group to clear the middle of the floor out as much as possible. If you go to Green initially and second guess yourselves based on how the defense looks, bringing in Thybulle threatens to disrupt any offensive rhythm the group has established, and as established up top, offense is where this team is ultimately going to have to win a title. They simply don't have the roster to be the bruising bullies on defense they once imagined they could be.
We've all seen Thybulle improve as a cutter this season, and though his inability to effectively space the floor could be even more devastating with this group, he'll also never have an opportunity as good as this to get open looks created for him. But even in this sink or swim moment, a situation where Thybulle has responded well to this point in his career, my confidence in Thybulle coming through on the offensive end is minimal.
For better or worse, they are likely going to have to survive with a pure floor spacer in the spot between these four guys, and Green is the most trustworthy option of the group. Furkan Korkmaz has been erratic, Isaiah Joe hasn't been consistent enough, and even in his diminished state, Green is the smartest team defender out of all of them no matter what you think about how age has diminished his impact on ball. Rivers will likely have to be selective with his minutes, given Green's hamstring issues throughout the season, which is one reason I wouldn't be shocked to see the team go with a "placeholder" starter a la Korkmaz in order to save some of Green's minutes for the end of halves. You could even sell me on the idea that such an arrangement would help Thybulle's case to close — let Embiid and Harden get into an early rhythm with closer to ideal spacing, and then turn to Thybulle when it counts down the stretch.
In any case, this is the five-man group that we will ultimately start this exercise with, so if we disagree on that point, the substitution patterns below probably won't line up with your imagination.
First subs, six-seven minutes into quarter: Embiid/Niang/Thybulle/Harden/Maxey
Fear not, Thybulle fans, here's an opportunity to get him some minutes with basically the same group as the starters but with a quicker, more reliable catch-and-shoot guy in Harris' place. The big early question here is whether you want to get one of the co-stars out earlier than they have typically been subbed out, giving whoever you want leading the second unit in the second quarter some additional rest.
I'm of the mindset that they should be trying to get some more reps in with the Embiid/Harden/Maxey trio as they try to get up and running here, so both guys remain in place for the time being.
Nine minutes in: Embiid/Niang/Thybulle/Korkmaz/Maxey
This is the group that feels most likely to change based on both game flow and which half the Sixers are in. I would expect Rivers to get Embiid out of the game around this time in the first half to save a few extra minutes on the front end, though I do expect a full third quarter of minutes from Embiid to be the norm because it often has been this season. That's how you keep him around his season average of minutes (roughly 33) per game.
In the event that Philadelphia subs out Embiid and hands the offense over to Maxey, that presents the second-year guard with an excellent opportunity — he can basically be the unquestioned leader on the floor with a bunch of role players around him, giving him a few minutes to get true "point guard" reps in before he hits the bench and cedes the floor to Harden to open the second quarter. And if he's the last starter left to play the entire quarter, he has the youngest legs to cope with that assignment.
Looking at this group, my primary concern is the amount of creative juice you're lacking if the Maxey/Embiid combo isn't firing on all cylinders. Korkmaz might be okay playing a secondary creation role after some bouts of mild success as a point guard early this season, but Shake Milton would bring slightly more trustworthy playmaking next to Maxey. If you'd rather see Milton in this spot, though his shooting numbers are just as ugly as Korkmaz's this season and his slower release could lead to some fumbled opportunities.
The reason I ultimately lean toward Korkmaz here is that you can use him more as a moving target as a shooter and because I'd want Maxey getting the lion's share of on-ball touches with or without Embiid in the game, rendering Milton's skill set less meaningful. But the Korkmaz/Milton minutes are probably the hardest part to read for me heading into this because of Rivers' affinity for both guys. Despite what Rivers has said, I would not be shocked to see him go with an all-bench look to close some first quarters, leaning on a Milton/Korkmaz combo to get them through. Old habits die hard.
2nd quarter open: Choose your big/Harris/Thybulle/Korkmaz/Harden
This will otherwise be known as "James Harden Time." Spread it out, run pick-and-rolls, and get the hell out of the way.
One of the trickle-down effects of bringing in Harden is how it allows you to use Embiid's minutes. If they want to, the Sixers can simply play Embiid for the entirety of the first and third quarters while following that up with a substantial rest period to open the fourth. To get a win in Milwaukee immediately before the break, the Sixers had to bring Embiid back early in the fourth in order to prevent that game from slipping away. You can't bank on Harden preventing that every night, but I suspect Rivers will be a lot more comfortable betting on Harden to buy Embiid extra rest to preserve him for critical crunch time minutes. And if the Sixers are front running coming into the fourth, there's a decent chance Harden can help put the game out of reach and keep Embiid on ice for the rest of the game.
Thybulle remains in the game here on first glance, mostly because this defense is going to be wildly overmatched unless the backup center is doing heroic work at the rim. For me, that's almost an argument to go the opposite way and replace Thybulle with somebody like Milton or Joe, giving Harden more shooting options around him and more space to work with as he hunts opposing defenders in the middle of the floor. But I don't think the Sixers protected Thybulle in trade talks to have him play the second half of first and third quarters and no time else.
At present, the Sixers have an interesting decision to make with the backup center spot. I would suspect Rivers takes a look at Willie Cauley-Stein while he's here on a 10-day contract, though I think you could make a credible argument that he's the least compelling guy to play here. Charles Bassey can do basically whatever he can do (admittedly with a higher propensity to foul) and has youth and upside on his side, while Paul Reed's defensive instincts and overall competitiveness are a cut above WCS. Even Paul Millsap can probably do a little bit of damage as a pick-and-pop guy if you want to really open things up for Harden. I think Bassey is worth a much harder look now that Harden is here because of his rim-running talents, but I think Harden will ultimately make whoever plays there look passable, at least on offense.
Back to the starters, halfway through the second and fourth quarters: Embiid/Harris/Green/Harden/Maxey
I think the fifth spot here should be up for grabs basically every night, and in an ideal world, Thybulle is playing well enough offensively that you simply let him rock with this group. If it's not the long-term goal, it has to be at least a short-term goal to get Thybulle to a place where he's basically soft-locked into a closing spot for this team, providing them with the player they need to chase around top options when it matters.
If they don't get there, you end up with a minutes distribution where Harden, Harris, and Maxey play roughly 35-36 minutes a night, Embiid hovers around 33, and Green is slotted for about 24. Those are all in line with what has been demanded from them this season, and now they get there with the team much better protected when any one of them hits the bench. You get at least 12 minutes in each half with Embiid/Harris/Harden/Maxey all on the floor at the same time, and 30 minutes where Embiid and Harden get to share the floor together if they follow a similar pattern to this one. Even if you scale back a little bit to buy Embiid and Harden each some more rest, there's plenty of overlapping time to build chemistry with.
The question of "Who is the closer?" is going to come up a lot, and though I think he'll find it impossible to claim this is his team in a city where love for Embiid is overwhelming, Harden is my bet to get first crack at that role for one simple reason — it's simply easier for a perimeter player to be that guy. Harden will be the player bringing the ball up the floor, and if a design for Embiid breaks down, the guy who the ball is recycled to on the perimeter is ultimately who holds the power. It should ultimately be a moot point, because the best version of the Sixers will rely on Embiid and Harden running actions together to force teams into tough decisions in the final five minutes of games.
Sketching it out and thinking about it, the Sixers have a desperate need for more two-way players, something they now can't really fix until the offseason. They are susceptible to being picked apart by high-level wings when it matters. But any concerns about this group might ultimately melt away if the combined offensive might of Embiid and Harden adds up to what many think it will. Their foul-drawing power alone is going to put a lot of teams in rough situations, which could add to the advantage they have against opposing second units. In an ideal world, the Sixers' stars will use the minutes apart from one another to run it up against backups, allowing them to enjoy some time on the pine at the end of games.
Expect the head coach to try a lot of stuff before they settle on the formula that will ultimately be counted on in the playoffs. And more than anything else, just try to enjoy this moment, one of the biggest arrivals in Philly sports during my lifetime.
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