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January 20, 2015

State of the Union: 7 things to know

Obama would reshape college, sick leave, taxes

President Barack Obama is scheduled to deliver his 2015 State of the Union address Tuesday night at 9 p.m. before the largest Republican majority in several decades. 

So what are the top themes or proposals residents in the region should look for in his speech, which is being touted as a major push by the president to increase taxes on the nation's wealthiest by $320 billion over 10 years to provide better benefits for the middle class?

Community Colleges vs. Four Year Institutions

Obama reportedly will propose changes to the tax code that, if approved, may raise about $300 million over the next decade.  The proposal would, in part, pay for millions to attend tuition-free community college, which the president says will help people find new jobs and a pathway into the middle class.

Should Obama's community college plan become a reality, along with benefiting the community colleges themselves, there may be a benefit for local communities. These communities might see an influx of new students, which could increase local business and investment, according to Paul Jargowsky, a professor of public policy at Rutgers University-Camden.

"It would have spinoff benefits," Jargowsky said.

The proposal is unlikely to become a reality, however, said Richard Harris, a political science professor at Rutgers-Camden. He said that if it is approved, it may make sense for more students to start out at community college before transferring to a four-year school. Many universities accept transfer credits.

"There is a revenue issue for four-year schools," Harris said. "The courses you would be taking at community college, that would transfer into your four-year institutions are really low-cost, high-revenue, high-profit courses."

In short, the four-year schools could take a financial hit from the proposal. They would be stuck teaching the higher-cost, upper-level courses while more students would opt to take lower level courses for free at two-year schools denying tuition revenue to universities.

While Pennsylvania's unemployment rate is just below the national average, the same cannot be said for New Jersey or Philadelphia, which lag behind the rest of the nation. The Garden State’s rate is 6.6 percent as of October compared with 5.8 percent nationwide, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In addition, Philadelphia had a jobless rate of around 7 percent in September.

Over the past few months, Obama's approval rating has ticked up as the nation has gained jobs. He will likely say his economic politics were successful and that Republican criticism proved to be unfounded.

New Jersey tax reform

Democrats in the state Legislature have long pushed for the state’s wealthiest to pay more in taxes to plug a revenue shortfall, a proposal Republican Gov. Chris Christie has rejected, arguing that raising taxes on millionaires would only drive a valuable tax base out of the state. 

The Democrat-controlled state Legislature passed a measure to raise taxes on income earned above $1 million a year from just under 9 percent to a rate of 10.75 percent. Christie vetoed the measure, saying in a statement, "I strongly believe that punitively raising taxes on our already overtaxed residents and small-business owners is not the answer to the state’s short- and long-term fiscal challenges,” according to the Washington Post.

Expect the argument to get fresh life in the wake of Obama’s speech but Christie has rejected the idea multiple times before and if he is heading into a Republican presidential primary adverse to the idea of raising taxes, he may be unlikely to warm to any reincarnation of the idea.

Immigration

Obama has pushed for immigration reform in the past and is likely to do so again Tuesday night. While this issue is normally brought up with a focus on border states like Arizona and New Mexico, New Jersey has a comparatively high Hispanic population. According to Pew Research, 18 percent of the state's population is Hispanic, which is the eighth highest rate in the country. Pennsylvania has a smaller fraction of Hispanics who make up six percent of the state's residents.

This community, like many others, cares about economic issues and access to the middle class - points that will be highlighted when Obama talks about his plan on taxes and community college. In addition, Obama may sell his recent executive action that gave some undocumented immigrants a way to stay in the country and work legally.

Sick leave

Philadelphia's city council passed paid sick leave twice but Mayor Michael Nutter vetoed the measures. Obama is likely to say that he supports the Healthy Families Act, which would "allow millions of working Americans to earn up to seven days per year of paid sick time, which they could use to care for themselves or for a sick family member," according to the While House website.

Schauna Shames, an assistant political science professor at Rutgers-Camden, said she hoped Obama would make a moral push for paid sick leave. She said she sees the impact on her own students when they get sick and believe that it is vital for others to get time off when they fall ill.

She said Obama should present "the fundamental right to take a little time off if your wife got sick."

Those who oppose paid sick leave often argue that it would be unfair to business and would incentivize people to fake an illness.

Cuba

The recently warmed relations with Cuba increases the potential for re-capturing one of the state’s most infamous fugitives who was convicted of murdering  a New Jersey State trooper in the 1970s, broke out of jail and to escaped to Cuba.

Christie has called for the return of Joanne Deborah Chesimard aka Assata Olugbala Shakur, in a letter to the president. She is listed on the FBI’s Most Wanted list. The killing still resonates within the state’s law enforcement community.

Shakur, who was at one time a member of the Black Panther Party, was convicted of killing Trooper Werner Foerster in May 1973 with his own service revolver during a traffic stop.

“Chesimard, aided and abetted by armed accomplices, escaped from prison in 1979 and has been a fugitive form justice ever since,” Christie wrote in a letter to the president in December. “It is believed that she moved to Cuba in 1984 and has, since that time, lived freely there, attending government functions and being provided with housing, food, and transportation by the Cuban government.”

“I urge you to demand the immediate return of Chesimard before any further consideration of restoration of diplomatic relations with the Cuban government.”

Infrastructure

President Obama is going to bring up the need to invest in the nation’s infrastructure, it is presumed, and the state of New Jersey’s roads bridges and rail lines is a constant source of debate in Jersey political circles.

For example, the fund that helps pay for infrastructure improvements will soon to be allocated almost entirely to debt payments. This makes new repairs far more difficult. Lots of Democrats want the state’s gas tax to be raised in order to help replenish the fund.

Also, Christie is regularly criticized for his decision to halt construction of the ARC Tunnel, which was meant to increase train capacity into New York City. Now, engineers warn of major repairs needed on the two current tunnels within the next 20 years that could force a major slowdown in train traffic.

Even Twitter accounts have been created to criticize the state’s public transportation infrastructure.

Pennsylvania also has its fair share of concerns. The American Society of Civil Engineers gave low ratings to many of the state's key pieces of infrastructure. For example, the organization in 2014 gave the state's roads a D- and bridges a D+.

Politics and framing for the next election:

This year, about 70 members of Congress are going to be wearing problem solver lapel pins. The representatives, from both sides of the aisle, agree in broad principles like balancing the nation's budget and achieving energy independence. The campaign is pushed by the advocacy group No Labels.

"This pin is the symbol of a new type of politics, in which leaders agree to goals as a first step, similar to the way President Clinton and Speaker Gingrich did in the 1990s, when they first agreed to the goal of a balanced budget and then followed through with the policy specifics to meet that goal," said Jon Huntsman, the group's co-chairman and a former Republican presidential candidate.

Despite this show of shared goals, whether Obama's proposals will become a reality with a Republican Congress in power is another question.

"I think this is really a framing exercise," Harris said. "I think the Democratic party broadly speaking is going to be doing a lot of things to position itself" for 2016.

This means addressing issues of income inequality and trying to present a contrast to Republicans on the issue - the 2016 election is just around the corner.

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