April 15, 2024
Each year, we lay out the Philadelphia Eagles' top 10 options with their first round pick, and we have found that while the player they have picked has occasionally been surprising, their base strategies have been predictable.
For example:
• In 2023, we had a trade up for Jalen Carter at No. 2.
• In 2022, we were right about the team likely trading up for a defensive lineman (option No. 1), but it was for a defensive tackle instead of an edge rusher. We specifically singled out Jordan Davis (option No. 5). We also had wide receiver as option No. 3, and they did indeed get one with one of their first-round picks, though it was a trade for A.J. Brown instead of just drafting a rookie prospect.
• In 2021, we had the Eagles drafting a wide receiver (option No. 2), with DeVonta Smith as the most likely Eagles pick, but were off on the notion that one of the top three guys (Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Smith) would make it to pick 12 (stick-and-pick was option 1). Kudos to Howie Roseman for reading that better than me.
• In 2020, it felt rather clear that the Eagles were going to pick a wide receiver, and they did, though obviously the wrong one.
• In 2019, we correctly diagnosed that the Eagles were likely to trade up (option No. 1). They picked who they thought would be Jason Peters' successor (option No. 8).
• In 2018, it felt like a year to trade out of the first round (option No. 1), and that's what they did, eventually picking a tight end (option No. 7).
• In 2017, we were a little more specific, and had the Eagles staying put and drafting Derek Barnett as option No. 3.
Now that we've taken that little trip down memory lane, let's look at the Eagles' top 10 options in 2023. We'll focus specifically on the 22nd overall pick.
Every year during mock draft season, people love connecting the Eagles with a running back or a linebacker, despite the team having very clearly demonstrated over a long period of time that they do not operate that way.
Last year that guy was RB Bijan Robinson. The top linebacker in this draft is probably Texas A&M's Edgerrin Cooper, who has an outside chance of landing somewhere in the first round but is more likely to be taken on Day 2. There will almost certainly be no running backs selected in the first round this year.
Cooper would be a homerun selection with either of the Eagles' two second-round picks, but fans were spared of nonsense LB or RB talk this year in Round 1. We should also mention that safety isn't in play for the Eagles in the first round this year either, unless you consider Iowa's Cooper DeJean a safety, but we'll get to him shortly.
Bowers is the top-rated tight end in this year's class, and he has cracked a number of respected analysts' top 10 lists. For example, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network and Dane Brugler of The Athletic both have Bowers as the seventh-best player in this draft.
Bowers is unlikely to slide to pick No. 22, but because of positional importance (or lack thereof) there's an outside chance that he could slide further than expected. The Eagles have surely considered this possibility and probably done actuarial assessments of Dallas Goedert's level of play in 2023, his likely longevity going forward, and his past injury history.
Ultimately, I think the Eagles would be happy to see Bowers come off the board with an early pick so they're not forced to make a difficult decision if he's available when they're on the clock, but he is something of a wildcard in the first round this year.
This group of players includes guys like Duke's Graham Barton and Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson. They are fine players, but aren't special. Drafting a guard with no upside to take over at tackle for Lane Johnson down the road feels like an absurd use of resources.
A.J. Brown is making $25 million per year and DeVonta Smith likely soon will be as well. Brown's contract runs through the 2026 season, and a potential Smith extension could keep him under contract through ~2028.
The 2024 draft is loaded with premium wide receiver talent, but selecting one would probably start a timer on Brown's tenure with the team, at least if the drafted player becomes a hit. Brown is the best player on the team and he's still only 26 years old. I'm not sure why the team would be in any rush to draft a player to replace him.
As we noted last week when we examined the likelihood of the Eagles trading up or back in the first round, the COVID redshirt season and NIL deals have contributed to a weaker than normal pool of prospects in the 2024 draft, explained here:
Covid and NIL have made this NFL Draft class “top heavy and weak”: pic.twitter.com/wtImrJu2O3
— Max Browne (@MaxBrowne4) March 13, 2024
The Eagles already have eight picks in this draft, including a pair of second-round picks.
| Round | Overall | How acquired |
| 1 | 22 | Eagles' own pick |
| 2 | 50 | From Saints |
| 2 | 53 | Eagles' own pick |
| 4 | 120 | From Steelers |
| 5 | 161 | From Buccaneers |
| 5 | 171 | Compensatory pick |
| 5 | 172 | Compensatory pick |
| 6 | 211 | Compensatory pick |
Trading back for additional picks in a weak draft doesn't feel like the smart play this year.
The trade market this offseason has been interesting, with Brian Burns, Haason Reddick, and L'Jarius Sneed all being dealt for compensation that was lower than expected. Of course, each of those players required new contracts as well, which no doubt factored into the compensation calculation.
Still, if there are bargains to be had in the trade market in terms of draft capital, you know that Roseman is sniffing around them.
If they were to make a big splash for a star starter, my bet is that it would be for a cornerback.
Haason Reddick is gone, Brandon Graham is likely playing his last season, Josh Sweat could be moving on in free agency next season, and Zack Baun is in Philly on a one-year deal. Bryce Huff and Nolan Smith are the only two edge rushers who are under contract in 2025. That's the reason to draft an edge rusher with an early pick.
The reason not to? The Eagles' coaching staff did a poor job of getting Nolan Smith involved last season, so if they were to select another edge rusher with a high pick, they better actually use him, and snaps could be limited with all the above players (Reddick aside) already in the mix in 2024.
The guys to watch:
• Dallas Turner, Alabama: Speed rusher, very likely to be gone well before the Eagles pick.
• Jared Verse, Florida State: Bully power rusher who is unlikely to fall to 22, but conceivably could.
• Laiatu Latu, UCLA: Highly productive player with a wide repertoire of pass rush moves, but one with a highly concerning injury history.
• Chop Robinson, Penn State: Undersized, but extremely athletic, disappointing college stats.
Robinson is more or less Nolan Smith 2.0, and would be a silly choice, in my opinion. There are better arguments for Verse or Latu, but only if they fell to 22, which again, feels unlikely.
This is also probably where we should mention that it's not a particularly strong DT class, but Texas' Byron Murphy would make some sense if the Eagles hadn't already selected five interior defensive linemen in the last three drafts, and one in the first round each of the last two years.
The Eagles' starting trio of corners the last two seasons were Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox. Bradberry was a disaster in 2023, Maddox was a cap casualty this offseason (who was then re-signed), and Slay will turn 34 during the 2024 season.
The Eagles have some intriguing players in the pipeline, like 2023 draft pick Kelee Ringo, and Isaiah Rodgers, who should soon be reinstated from a year-long suspension. Still, there are short-term and long-term needs here.
The 2024 draft has a trio of corners likely to go in the first round who have inside-outside versatility, like Alabama's Terrion Arnold and Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell, as well as a do-everything guy in Iowa's Cooper DeJean. Those types of corners would give the Eagles short-term and long-term flexibility.
And then there's 173-pound Clemson CB Nate Wiggins, a 4.28 guy with good cover skills who has been the most popularly linked player to the Eagles in mocks drafts. In my opinion, because of his extremely slight frame, modest ball skill production, and lack of physicality, he is not the type of player who will interest Vic Fangio, but he is certainly a player to watch given his repeated connection to the Eagles.
In the locker room after the Eagles' playoff loss to the Bucs, Lane Johnson said that he thinks he has "a few good years left," and while that may be true, he turns 34 in May and the Eagles have a consistent history of putting succession plans in place years in advance along the offensive line.
It's a deep offensive tackle draft. For example, Daniel Jeremiah has seven of them in his top 23:
I would put the above players in the following buckets:
• Guys who can play RG in the short-term before taking over for Johnson at RT: Fuaga, Fautanu, Latham.
• Offensive tackles only, likely ready to play from Day 1: Alt, Fashanu.
• Somewhat raw and could need development, probably offensive tackles only: Mims, Guyton.
That first bucket of players can theoretically help in the short-term and long-term, but will also likely be gone by the time the Eagles pick. Hence, the No. 1 likely thing the Eagles will do... 👇
As noted above, the Eagles have eight picks, including two in the second round and three in the fifth round. They could use those picks as ammo to move up and select a player who would otherwise be unlikely to last until pick 22, with players like Mitchell, Arnold, DeJean, Fuaga, Fautanu, and Latham being the most logical targets.
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