March 16, 2015
Steve Helber/AP
The Kentucky Wildcats are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Welcome to the Midwest Region, perhaps the easiest of the four NCAA Tournament regions in which to pick a winner.
That's because of Kentucky.
I won't waste any time here pretending that the Wildcats won't advance to Indianapolis, because they're just too good. Not only are they the best team in the nation, but their pass to the Final Four is relatively easy. Notre Dame presents the biggest threat to Kentucky, but -- spoiler alert -- I think the Irish will be eliminated before they even get a chance at Calipari's undefeated team.
But just because the No. 1 seed is projected to advance, doesn't mean there won't be plenty of upsets, buzzer beaters and memorable moments along the way.
No. 11 Texas over No. 6 Butler -- Despite a sub-.500 record in the Big 12, the Longhorns have exactly what a team needs to advance past the first round in March: talent. Isaiah Taylor (13.0 ppg, 4.6 apg), Myles Turner (10.4 ppg) and Jonathan Holmes (10.2 ppg) all average double figures for Texas. On the defensive end, they hold opponents to just 38.6 percent shooting and lead the nation in blocks per game at 7.88, one more than the second place team, Kentucky.
Conversely, Butler is 151st in the country in terms of field goal percentage at 43.9 percent. Where I really see Texas taking advantage of the Bulldogs is on the offensive glass. The Longhorns are ranked in the top 10 for offensive rebounding percentage and are 31st in opponents' offensive rebound percentage. If they can hold Butler to a poor shooting performance and control the glass, Texas could find itself with a second-round matchup against Notre Dame.
No. 7 Wichita State -- A year after being a No. 1 seed, the Shockers are back dancing despite a first-round loss in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Last season, Wichita State, which entered the tourney undefeated, was bounced in the round of 32 by Kentucky, which was a No. 8 seed, after Fred VanVleet's buzzer-beater came up short.
I like them to advance past Indiana, setting up a potential third-round game against in-state rival Kansas. In fact, I like them going all the way to the Elite Eight, setting up a rematch with Kentucky for a trip to the Final Four. A mid-range seed facing an undefeated No. 1 seed? Sounds familiar.
What's March Madness without some great storylines?
No. 1 Kentucky -- Sure, it would be cool if Wichita State could make up for their early exit a year ago with a trip to the Final Four this season, but I just don't see them getting past Kentucky. The Shockers were better last season -- and Kentucky wasn't close to being this good -- and still the Wildcats proved too much. No bold prediction here. Kentucky will win the Midwest Region.
And now to see just how Kentucky got to the Final Four, here's a game-by-game breakdown of the Midwest Region:
I have a hard time picking a team with a sub-.500 record to win an NCAA Tournament game. That's my reason for picking Manhattan since I didn't see either of these teams play once this season. Did you?
It doesn't matter much, because the winner is rewarded with a matchup against Kentucky.
WINNER: Manhattan
[Insert meaningless analysis here.]
WINNER: Kentucky
This is a classic 8-9 matchup. Neither team is great offensively, but it'll be the Bearcats' strong defensive play that will help them past the Boilermakers. They rank in the top 20 in the nation in both opponent points per possession and effective field goal percentage. They're also 13th in offensive rebound percentage. Cincinnati is holding opponents to just 55.3 points per game, and while not that offensively-minded themselves, they should be able to put up at least 60 on Purdue.
WINNER: Cincinnati
These 12-5 games are always prime for at least pair of upsets, but I don't see this as one of those games. West Virginia leads the nation in steals and offensive rebounds. Since Buffalo's strength is ball handling -- it's ranked 25th in turnover percentage -- this will be somewhat of a style clash. Both teams can score* the ball, so if this game is close down the stretch, the Mountaineers' below average free throw shooting could be a factor. I still think West Virginia gets it done.
WINNER: West Virginia
Will this be the first upset in the Midwest? Not quite. And I think it comes down to resumes. Maryland is 4-2 against top 25 teams while this will be Valpo's first game against such a team. Maryland has wins over Wisconsin and Iowa State and took two of their three meetings against Michigan State this season.
Don't get me wrong, Valpo is a good team and can create problems for a team like Maryland. Keep an eye on 6-foot-9 Alec Peters, who averages 16.7 points per game and shoots 46.2 percent from three. Ultimately, however, I think Maryland's experience against tougher opponents this season gives them the edge over a defensively sound Crusaders squad.
Also, they have this guy:
WINNER: Maryland
As I stated earlier, I think this is the best bet for a first-round upset in the Midwest Region. Butler isn't the team it was a few years ago when it made it to back-to-back national title games in 2010 and 2011. Since then, they've won only one NCAA Tournament game.
WINNER: Texas
Notre Dame beat Duke twice this season. The Irish also beat UNC twice, Michigan State once, and lost to Virginia by just six points. Jerian Grant can ball with the best of them. They're second in the country in shooting at 51 percent and average the 12th-most points per game at 78.8. I think this is a lock for the Irish, although it may be their only easy game of the tournament.
WINNER: Notre Dame
I've already revealed Wichita State as my sleeper pick for this region, and I think they handle Indiana pretty easily. After going just 5-7 in their last 12 games, a one-and-done from the Hoosiers wouldn't shock me.
WINNER: Wichita State
Kansas has nine wins against teams ranked in the top 25. It also lost to Kentucky by 32, but this is New Mexico State. I don't see much of a problem here for the Jayhawks. That comes in the next round.
WINNER: Kansas
I don't see the Wildcats hitting much resistance here. They'll roll on to the Sweet 16.
WINNER: Kentucky
This should be a close one, as the seeds suggest, but Maryland is the better of two teams. If the Mountaineers can force the Terps into bad shots and control the glass, they could give Maryland a run for their money, but I still like them to advance to the Sweet 16.
WINNER: Maryland
Texas will play the Irish closer than you might think, but beating Notre Dame will be too tough. There's potential for an upset -- there always is -- but expect Notre Dame to advance.
WINNER: Notre Dame
Sorry, Kansas, but Wichita State is going to get the better of you in this one. After last year's early exit, look for the Shockers not to take anything for granted as the eye a potential rematch with Kentucky. They're my sleeper pick, and after watching Kansas let a 17-point lead over Iowa State evaporate late in the Big 12 title game, I like Wichita State even more.
The Shockers are a top-10 team in points per possession and ranked 29th in opponent points per possession. They're also great at creating turnovers. I like the upset here.
WINNER: Wichita State
It's Kentucky. Sorry, but it's just too good.
WINNER: Kentucky
As long as Wichita State doesn't look past the Irish -- that would be hard to do -- at a potential rematch against Kentucky, I think the Shockers can get past Notre Dame. Why not?
WINNER: Wichita State
Sorry, Wichita State, but your run stops here. Last season was the Shockers' best chance to get to the Final Four, and a much better Wichita State team lost to an inferior Kentucky team. It would be amazing to see a mid-major like the Shockers upset a powerhouse like Kentucky, but I just can't see that happening this season.
So there you have it. The Wildcats return to the Final Four for the second-straight year. You, like most other people, probably already have them penciled in on your bracket, so that's not much help, but don't sleep on Wichita State making a run to the Elite Eight. Maybe you can pick up some points other won't if the Shockers indeed make a deep run.
