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April 05, 2024

Play-In Tournament or No. 6 seed? Mapping out the remainder of the Sixers' season

The Sixers pulled within half a game of the Miami Heat on Thursday night. Can they catch both the Heat and Indiana Pacers before the regular season ends?

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Embiid Hali 4.4.24 Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

One of the teams standing in the Sixers' way of notching the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference: the Indiana Pacers.

In notching a thrilling come-from-behind victory over the Miami Heat on Thursday night, the Sixers officially gave themselves a fighter's chance to escape participating in the NBA's second annual Play-In Tournament. It was their biggest win of the year, as it brought them within half a game of the Heat and just one game of the Indiana Pacers.

The NBA's postseason picture remains extremely blurry with a week and change remaining, and that includes the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. For the Sixers, every single game left on the schedule is crucial, and could be the difference between a first round exit (or even an earlier one) and an inspiring playoff run.

How does the Play-In Tournament work?

Once the dust settles, the seventh through tenth seeds will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The setup is actually quite simple. Here it goes:

• The No. 7 seed plays a game at home against the No. 8 seed. The winner of that game is the final No. 7 seed and goes on to play the conference's No. 2 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

• The No. 9 seed plays a game at home against the No. 10 seed. The loser of that game is eliminated from playoff contention.

• The loser of the first game plays a game at home against the winner of the second game. The winner of that contest is the final No. 8 seed and goes on to play the conference's No. 1 seed — the Boston Celtics — in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser is eliminated from playoff contention.

Where the Eastern Conference stands now

Barring a stunning collapse from either the Orlando Magic or New York Knicks — who are currently tied for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference — the race for the No. 6 seed will come down to the Sixers, Indiana and Miami.

After Thursday's action, this is how the trio of competitors line up:

 SeedTeamRecord (GB)
6Indiana Pacers 43-34 (-) 
7Miami Heat42-34 (0.5) 
8Philadelphia 76ers 42-35 (1) 


So, the Sixers do not exactly control their own destiny: even if they can end the season with a surge, the Pacers and Heat each likely need to drop at least a couple of games.

Remaining schedules

This is where things look encouraging for the Sixers. Their remaining schedule is by far the easiest in the entire NBA, and while ending the season on an eight-game winning streak and finishing at 47-35 may seem far-fetched, a quick glance at the schedule proves it is a possibility.

The Sixers' remaining schedule...

OpponentRecord
at Grizzlies26-50
at Spurs18-58
vs. Pistons13-63
vs. Magic45-31
vs. Nets30-47


Of their five games, four come against opponents who are not just eliminated from playoff contention of any kind, but at least 17 games under .500. Their only opponent who should give them any trouble is Orlando, and while the Magic have become a good and exciting team, they lack the talent that a fully-healthy Sixers squad has — and the Sixers have beaten them handily on each of the two occasions in which the teams met earlier this season.

Additionally, the Sixers only have one back-to-back, which is the set of road games against Memphis and San Antonio. It stands to reason that Joel Embiid would not play in both legs of a road-road back-to-back so soon after returning from such a serious injury, but even if he sits in one of those two games, the Sixers have more than enough firepower to take care of business.

Winning out is an extremely ambitious goal, even if it looks increasingly possible on paper. So let's say the Sixers win four of their final five contests and finish the season at 46-36. In order to usurp the Sixers and stay out of the Play-In Tournament, the Pacers would need to go 3-2 in their final five games, while the Heat would likely need to go 4-2 over their final six contests (barring tie-breaker madness).

Three of the Pacers' five remaining games come against teams fighting hard for favorable playoff seeding — including one against Miami. Their remaining slate of games...

OpponentRecord
vs. Thunder52-24
vs. Heat42-34
at Raptors23-53
at Cavaliers46-31
vs. Hawks36-41


Miami's remaining schedule, however, is a bit easier than Indiana's. Their remaining six contests are as follows...

OpponentRecord
at Rockets38-38
at Pacers43-34
at Hawks36-41
vs. Mavericks46-30
vs Raptors25-53
vs. Raptors25-53


All of this illustrates the enormity of Thursday night's victory. If the Sixers had dropped that game, they would have almost certainly been locked into this Play-In Tournament, where just two shaky performances can end a team's season. Now, they have officially put themselves in the running to nab the Eastern Conference's No. 6 seed.


Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam

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