
January 20, 2025
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is in the books, and only two teams remain alive in the NFC, the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. We have two new obituaries to write, for the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams.
The Lions felt like a "team of destiny" for most of the 2024 season. They were fun to watch, they have personality, they have a head coach that the national media types fawn all over, and they play for a city that is absolutely starving for a Super Bowl appearance after decades of being an NFL doormat.
They went 15-2, while also going 6-0 against their divisional rivals, who have tortured them over the years. They had the best point differential (+222) of any team in the NFL since 2019, and they executed cute little trick plays that punctuated blowout wins. It was all fun and laughs until the playoffs, when...
POOF... just like that, they got taken out by a 6 seed in their first game. Ouch.
Looking ahead, the Lions will likely lose both of their coordinators in Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn to head coaching jobs elsewhere.
#Lions HC Dan Campbell said today he’s expecting OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn to take head coaching positions in the coming days.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 20, 2025
“I’m prepared to lose both.” pic.twitter.com/usGcrHZM9P
Johnson could be hired as early as Monday, by, ohhhh, sayyyy, the Raiders.
Part of the Lions' downfall was due to injuries to their defense. They lost Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, among others, and they should be better on that side of the ball in 2025 when those guys return. However, they are almost certain to also experience significant regression on offense, which was their true strength this season.
The NFC North was by far the best division in football in 2024. In order of combined records:
Division | Record | Point differential |
NFC North | 45-23 | +384 |
AFC West | 40-28 | +149 |
NFC East | 36-32 | -6 |
AFC North | 34-34 | +51 |
NFC West | 34-34 | -38 |
AFC East | 30-38 | -56 |
NFC South | 28-40 | -170 |
AFC South | 25-43 | -314 |
And then the Lions, Packers, and Vikings all lost in their first playoff games by at least two scores.
The 2024 Rams looked a lot like the 2023 Rams.
The 2023 Rams started 3-6, but then won 7 of their last 8, with their one loss being in OT on the road in Baltimore. They looked dangerous heading into the playoffs, but lost a close game to a better team (in that case, the Lions).
The 2024 Rams started 1-4, but then won 9 of their next 11 games, clinching the NFC West. They beat up on the Vikings in the Wild Card Round, looked dangerous, and then once again faltered against a better team (this time the Eagles).
The Rams have a young roster with an old (but still good) quarterback. Early in the season, when they still had a bad record, there were rumors that they would be willing to trade Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, or both. Would they be bold enough to do that this offseason and really dive into the youth movement head first while both players have legitimate value?
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk floated the idea that Stafford may have already played his last game for the Rams.
The 36-year-old Stafford, who was the first overall pick in the 2009 draft, has two years left on his contract. He has a $4 million fully-guaranteed roster bonus due in March, and a non-guaranteed $23 million salary.
That’s less than half of the current market for the position, and Stafford clearly continues to perform at a level higher than that.
The Rams adjusted Stafford’s contract as training camp opened. It was the product of quiet tensions between the player and team that lingered from the draft (when the Rams didn’t use a first-round pick on his successor) until the deadline for reporting.
After the Rams limped to a 1-4 start, there were whispers that Stafford would welcome a trade.
But then things turned around for the Rams, dramatically. They rebounded to win the NFC West and a Wild Card playoff game, before coming up short in Philadelphia.
Although the Rams won a Super Bowl in the first year after the trade that sent Stafford to L.A. for quarterback Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-round pick, the Rams were quietly hoping after the 2022 season that the Jets would come calling if their effort to trade for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers failed.
My guess? The Rams will look at the rest of the NFC West, conclude that they don't have great competition, and run it back with Stafford in 2025. And then they'll be a dangerous team heading into the playoffs once again, and probably once again a quick out.
2) Commanders (14-5): The Commanders are headed back to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season, ending a 33-year drought. The Cowboys now hold the distinction of having the longest NFC Championship Game appearance drought in the NFC. Teams with 20+ year droughts:
• Browns: 32 years (they didn't exist for three years from 1996-1998, but if you include those years it's 35).
• Dolphins: 32 years
• Cowboys: 29 years
• Texans: 23 years (they've only been in existence 23 years)
• Raiders: 22 years
If I were throwing every player from the 4 remaining teams into a pool and holding a draft, my big board would look like this:
Last week: 3
1) Eagles (16-3): Of the four remaining teams, the Eagles are favorites to win the Super Bowl. Via DraftKings:
Should the Eagles get to the Super Bowl, they will likely be underdogs, but they're favorites to win it all right now because the Commanders are viewed as the worst remaining team still alive.
It's pretty wild that the Eagles objectively have the worst-performing quarterback left, are favorites to win it all, and the non-sarcastic sentiment should actually be, "Yeah, makes sense."
Last week: 2
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